NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 21, 2018
Updated: Sat Apr 21 08:45:02 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Apr 24, 2018 - Wed, Apr 25, 2018 D7Fri, Apr 27, 2018 - Sat, Apr 28, 2018
D5Wed, Apr 25, 2018 - Thu, Apr 26, 2018 D8Sat, Apr 28, 2018 - Sun, Apr 29, 2018
D6Thu, Apr 26, 2018 - Fri, Apr 27, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 210842
   SPC AC 210842

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   Medium-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that upper ridging
   west of the Rockies will persist into next weekend while a series of
   shortwave troughs contribute to broad upper troughing across the
   central and eastern CONUS. This will result in generally
   above-average temperatures along and west of the Rockies while
   below-average temperatures exist elsewhere. There is some potential
   for a cold front resulting from one of the shortwave troughs to
   interact with a moderately moist and unstable airmass supportive of
   strong thunderstorms. However, low consistency within the guidance
   currently precludes much confidence in that scenario.

   ..Mosier.. 04/21/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center

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