| D4 | Fri, Apr 19, 2024 - Sat, Apr 20, 2024 |
D7 | Mon, Apr 22, 2024 - Tue, Apr 23, 2024 |
| D5 | Sat, Apr 20, 2024 - Sun, Apr 21, 2024 |
D8 | Tue, Apr 23, 2024 - Wed, Apr 24, 2024 |
| D6 | Sun, Apr 21, 2024 - Mon, Apr 22, 2024 |
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day) |
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Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
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PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
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POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
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ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160854
SPC AC 160854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with
an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern
Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to
broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered
over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high
pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south
each day.
For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the
Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level
moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the
boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less
shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday
along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the
southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave
may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear
is forecast to be weak.
High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and
into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American
trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond
Saturday/D5.
..Jewell.. 04/16/2024
CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT
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Air Quality
