NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 21, 2018
Updated: Sun Jan 21 08:32:02 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Jan 24, 2018 - Thu, Jan 25, 2018 D7Sat, Jan 27, 2018 - Sun, Jan 28, 2018
D5Thu, Jan 25, 2018 - Fri, Jan 26, 2018 D8Sun, Jan 28, 2018 - Mon, Jan 29, 2018
D6Fri, Jan 26, 2018 - Sat, Jan 27, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 210830
   SPC AC 210830

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   Medium-range guidance continues to show a period of quiescent
   weather through at least Thursday as upper ridging traverses the
   Plains. A strong shortwave trough is expected to move into the
   Plains on Friday, continuing northeastward into the upper MS Valley
   while another shortwave moves into the southern Plains. This second
   shortwave trough may encounter enough low-level moisture to support
   thunderstorms over the weekend along the Gulf Coast. However,
   variability within the guidance remains too high for much forecast

   ..Mosier.. 01/21/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center

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