NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 4-8 Convective Outlook

Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 17, 2018
Updated: Sat Nov 17 07:57:02 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions


D4Tue, Nov 20, 2018 - Wed, Nov 21, 2018 D7Fri, Nov 23, 2018 - Sat, Nov 24, 2018
D5Wed, Nov 21, 2018 - Thu, Nov 22, 2018 D8Sat, Nov 24, 2018 - Sun, Nov 25, 2018
D6Thu, Nov 22, 2018 - Fri, Nov 23, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 170755
   SPC AC 170755

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0155 AM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Stable conditions are expected to prevail across the majority of the
   CONUS from early next week into the weekend. The only exception is
   across TX on D5/Wednesday, when showers and thunderstorms appear
   possible as a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough
   progresses over the southern Plains. Given the current guidance,
   severe storms seem unlikely on this day or any other day within the
   forecast period.

   ..Mosier.. 11/17/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.

Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center

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