Tropical Cyclone Activity
Tropical Sea Temperatures
   
Pacific Satellite Loop Atlantic Satellite Loop
Pacific Satellite Loop (click to enlarge) Atlantic Satellite Loop (click to enlarge)
Satellite Imagery-Picific Satellite Imagery-Atlantic
Satellite Imagery-Picific (click to enlarge) Satellite Imagery-Atlantic (click to enlarge)
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific
Graphical Tropcal Weather Outlook - Eastern Pacific
Tropical Weather Outlook
Eastern Pacific
Graphical Tropcal Weather Outlook - Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic
East Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


349
ABPZ20 KNHC 112324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Cristina, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Although upper-level winds are
currently only marginally conducive for the development of a
tropical cyclone, environmental conditions are expected to become
more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or
three days while the system moves quickly west-northwestward to
westward, well south of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...
 As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 11
 the center of Cristina was located near 20.6, -121.0
 with movement W at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 999 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 21

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 112040
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
 
...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 121.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 121.0 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the weekend and into early next 
week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristina will continue to steadily weaken over the next few days 
and become a remnant low by early next week.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 112039
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020
2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  75SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 121.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 112040
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020
 
Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now 
primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps 
about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although 
the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the 
convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler 
waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered 
to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates, 
based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51 
kt at 1335Z.

The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and 
regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on 
Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next 
three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due 
west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under 
the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track 
forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly 
due to the more southward initial position.
 
Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over 
progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus, 
gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression 
in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low 
shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a 
trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that 
could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity 
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and 
closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 112040
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21         
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052020               
2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 125W       34  1  19(20)   3(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)   X(23)
 
20N 130W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics


Tropical Storm Cristina 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 20:41:40 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristina 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Jul 2020 21:24:46 GMT
   
powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2020 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet