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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231139
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1500 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

...KENNETH WEAKENING RAPIDLY... ...LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...
 As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Aug 23
 the center of Kenneth was located near 24.6, -135.1
 with movement NNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 21

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 231435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...KENNETH WEAKENING RAPIDLY...
...LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 135.1W
ABOUT 1595 MI...2565 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 135.1 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Kenneth is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 231434
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 135.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 135.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 134.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.8N 135.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.1N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.6N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.7N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 30.7N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 135.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 21

Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 231435
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Practically all of Kenneth's deep convection has dissipated while
the system traverses SSTs near 23 deg C.  Using a blend of
subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields a
current intensity of 35 kt.  The cyclone is likely to continue to
weaken due to cool waters and strong south-southwesterly shear
associated with a broad upper-level trough to its west.  Kenneth
should become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24 hours or sooner.

The latest center fixes indicate that the motion has bent a little
to the left and is now around 330/10 kt.  Kenneth or the post-
tropical cyclone should continue to move through a break in the
subtropical ridge on a generally north-northwestward heading with
some deceleration over the next couple of days.  Later in the
forecast period, when the cyclone is likely to be very weak and
shallow, a turn toward the northwest is expected following the
low-level flow. The official track forecast is close to the latest
HFIP Corrected Consensus prediction.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 24.6N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 25.8N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 27.1N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  25/0000Z 28.0N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/1200Z 28.6N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/1200Z 29.7N 137.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/1200Z 30.7N 139.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 231435
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  21          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
1500 UTC WED AUG 23 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 135W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
30N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    

Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics


Tropical Storm Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 14:40:41 GMT

Tropical Storm Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 14:40:41 GMT
   
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