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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


914
ABPZ20 KNHC 241725
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 24 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Rick, located about 100 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


Summary for Hurricane Rick (EP2/EP172021)

...RICK MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
 As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 24
 the center of Rick was located near 16.3, -101.7
 with movement N at 5 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 980 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Rick Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 242037
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
 
...RICK MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH PORTIONS OF THE
COAST WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 101.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected 
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 
hours.  A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the 
anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, 
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. 
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to 
completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 
next 12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located 
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 101.7 West.  Rick is moving 
toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slightly faster motion 
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or 
so.  On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the 
coast of Mexico through tonight and make landfall on the coast of 
Mexico within the hurricane warning area Monday morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some slight strengthening is possible as Rick nears the 
coast of Mexico.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected within the next couple of hours.  Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin inside a portion of the Tropical Storm
Warning areas within the next couple of hours.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday.  This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
 

Hurricane Rick Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 242037
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021
2100 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TECPAN DE GALEANA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF TECPAN DE GALEANA TO ACAPULCO
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE
ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.7W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 101.7W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W...NEAR COAST
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...  0NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.6N 103.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 101.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 25/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
 
 

Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 242038
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Rick Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
 
Rick continues to hold its own, with little change in overall 
organization over the past 18 to 24 hours.  There is still no eye 
evident in satellite images, and earlier microwave images revealed 
that the eyewall underneath the cirrus canopy is open on the eastern 
side.  There is a large amount of spread in the various objective 
and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates, which range from 60 kt to 
90 kt. Since Rick does not look any better or worse than 6 hours 
ago, the difference between these estimates is split down the 
middle, and the initial advisory intensity remains 75 kt.  Based on 
data from a 1656 UTC ASCAT-B overpass, winds of tropical storm force 
were only 30 n mi from the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A recent ASCAT-B overpass helped to verify the position of the 
center of Rick, and the system has been moving a little slower and 
to the right of what was previously thought.  The initial motion is 
therefore set at 360/04 kt. Rick continues to move in the direction 
of a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  Most of the model guidance 
suggest the ridge may begin to fill in slightly to the northeast of 
the cyclone as early as tonight, which would cause the hurricane to 
turn north-northwestward along with a slight increase in forward 
speed.  The only notable change to the NHC track forecast was a 
slightly slower motion in the short term. Otherwise, the track is 
very close to the multimodel consensus solutions. 
 
Rick has been unable to take advantage of the favorable environment 
for strengthening over the past 24 hours, and the hurricane is about 
out of time to intensify any further.  The UW-CIMMS shear analysis 
shows 15 to 20 kt of vertical wind shear between Rick and 
the coast of Mexico, and 400-700 mb relative humidity of only about 
50 percent. Therefore, it is becoming less likely that Rick will 
undergo any significant strengthening before landfall.  The latest 
NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but remains 
on the high end of the guidance.  After landfall, the cyclone will 
weaken rapidly and the system may dissipate sooner than shown in 
this forecast.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rick is forecast to reach the coast of southern Mexico Monday 
morning, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous 
hurricane-force winds within a portion of the Hurricane Warning area 
from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  Residents in this area 
should follow any advice given by local officials.
 
2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions 
of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico beginning within 
the next couple of hours from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, 
and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, 
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across 
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and 
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce 
flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 16.3N 101.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
 24H  25/1800Z 18.4N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 36H  26/0600Z 19.6N 103.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch
 

Hurricane Rick Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021


695 
FOPZ12 KNHC 242038
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172021               
2100 UTC SUN OCT 24 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75   
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                            
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 105W       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  2   7( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MANZANILLO     50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
MANZANILLO     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
L CARDENAS     34 75  23(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
L CARDENAS     50 12  60(72)   1(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
L CARDENAS     64  2  22(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34 87   8(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
ZIHUATANEJO    50 25  17(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
ZIHUATANEJO    64  3   7(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
15N 100W       34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ACAPULCO       34  4   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER LATTO                                                    

Hurricane Rick Graphics


Hurricane Rick 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Oct 2021 20:39:38 GMT

Hurricane Rick 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Oct 2021 21:22:42 GMT
   
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