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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 232319
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dalila, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A tropical wave located several hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce disorganized
showers and cloudiness. Some gradual development of this system is
possible later this week while the system moves westward at around
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual
development of the system thereafter while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Summary for Tropical Storm Dalila (EP5/EP052019)

...DALILA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 23
 the center of Dalila was located near 19.4, -118.4
 with movement NW at 7 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Dalila Public Advisory Number 8

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dalila Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

...DALILA STILL A TROPICAL STORM BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 118.4W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 317 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dalila was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 118.4 West. Dalila is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast to occur by late Wednesday and that
motion should continue until the system dissipates in a few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Dalila is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or
Wednesday and will likely degenerate into a remnant low in a day or
so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Advisory Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 240239
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019
0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 317 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 118.4W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 118.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 118.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
 

Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 8

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240240
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052019
800 PM PDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Dalila has changed little during the last several hours.  The storm
remains very asymmetric with deep convection limited to the
southeastern quadrant due to northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An
ASCAT pass from several hours ago showed maximum winds of about 35
kt, and since the system has been steady state, the initial
intensity is held at that value.

Dalila has just crossed the 26 degree C isotherm and it is headed
for even cooler waters.  In addition, a field of stratocumulus
clouds are seen in satellite images near and to the west of the
system, indicative of the nearby stable air mass.  These conditions
should lead to weakening soon, and Dalila is expected to become
a tropical depression within the next 12 hours and a remnant low in
a day or so.  The global models show the remnant low opening up into
a trough in a few days or less.  The NHC intensity forecast is
identical to the previous one and in line with the majority of the
guidance.

The storm is still moving northwestward, but it is gradually turning
to the left.  A turn to the west-northwest is forecast during the
next day or so, as the cyclone loses its convection and moves
within the low-level easterly trade wind flow, and that motion
should continue until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast
is largely an update of the previous one and is near the various
consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 19.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 20.7N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Dalila Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 240240
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052019               
0300 UTC WED JUL 24 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34  X  18(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               

Tropical Storm Dalila Graphics


Tropical Storm Dalila 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 02:41:14 GMT

Tropical Storm Dalila 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2019 02:41:14 GMT
   
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