Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
000
WTPZ31 KNHC 172045
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
...ALETTA TURNS NORTHWARD...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 114.7W
ABOUT 745 MI...1200 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND ALETTA
IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA FRIDAY OR
FRIDAY NIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 17 2012
000
WTPZ21 KNHC 172044
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
2100 UTC THU MAY 17 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 114.7W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 114.7W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 114.7W
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 114.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
000
WTPZ41 KNHC 172048
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN RAGGED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ALETTA
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION CAN
PERSIST IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE ALETTA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE
20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS
SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR
LESS. FINAL DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 72-96 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.
ALETTA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/5. ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE
OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
OR SOUTH AS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING
MECHANISM. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Issued at 2100 UTC THU MAY 17 2012
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 172045
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012012
2100 UTC THU MAY 17 2012
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 6 17 32 32 35 34 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 83 59 49 45 41 40 NA
TROPICAL STORM 12 24 19 22 23 25 NA
HURRICANE X X X 1 1 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X X X 1 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:02:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:03:42 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:01:52 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:01:54 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:01:54 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 20:43:49 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 20:43:49 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 02:30:39 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:04:07 GMT
GIS Data last updated Thu, 17 May 2012 21:04:05 GMT
Issued at Thu, 17 May 2012 20:44:48 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format WILL change without notice.
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171745
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALETTA...LOCATED ABOUT 815 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHWEST.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
|
Air Quality
High Wind Warning
; "Pacific Satellite Loop (click to enlarge)"){kind=icon}
; "Atlantic Satellite Loop (click to enlarge)"){kind=icon}
