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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 150527
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual development of this
system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while it moves
slowly westward or west-northwestward well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another weak area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
south of the coast of Guatemala. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14
 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -120.1
 with movement W at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 966 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.

Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 150216
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 120.1W
ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located
near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 120.1 West. Kiko is moving
toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two. A slightly slower
motion toward the west-northwest is forecast by Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible
tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday, but Kiko
is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 150216
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 119.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 150216
TCDEP3

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132019
800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24
hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt
higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane
briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the
eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall
convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance.
The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and
objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt.

There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the
short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of
the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the
shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or
so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength
through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is
quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong
SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast,
it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it
moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also
forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also
become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the
warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show
gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the
intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north
of the latest NHC forecast.

The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a
motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge
should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward
speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between
the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the
ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and
UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such
weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through
mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this
point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of
models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and
remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say,
confidence in the forecast is quite low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 72H  18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 150216
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0
NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100  
KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34  1   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 120W       34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)  11(25)   4(29)   1(30)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  16(23)  22(45)   5(50)   1(51)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   8(11)   2(13)   X(13)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)  10(28)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 

Hurricane Kiko Graphics


Hurricane Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 02:18:29 GMT

Hurricane Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 02:18:29 GMT
   
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