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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230520
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Lowell, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Summary for Tropical Storm Lowell (EP2/EP172020)

...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 22
 the center of Lowell was located near 19.4, -119.1
 with movement WNW at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Lowell Public Advisory Number 10

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020  

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 230244
TCPEP2
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lowell Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
...LOWELL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 119.1W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lowell was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 119.1 West.  Lowell is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday.  A 
westward turn is expected Wednesday night, and this general motion 
should continue into late week. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Advisory Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020  

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 230244
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 119.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 118.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 20.4N 122.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 21.0N 128.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 119.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
 

Tropical Storm Lowell Forecast Discussion Number 10

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020  

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 230244
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Lowell Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172020
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 22 2020
 
Recent microwave satellite imagery has been extremely helpful in 
diagnosing the structure of Lowell, as well as locating the center 
of the tropical storm.   The imagery indicates the the center is 
located to the north of the bursting area of convection, and that 
the overall structure has not changed much since this afternoon.  A 
blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers and the 
earlier ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 40 kt.  
Although the shear associated with the upper-tropospheric flow is 
low, there appears to be some stronger shear in a layer beneath that 
level which is causing the displacement of the convection to the 
south of the low-level center.  Given the current structure, only 
slight strengthening is predicted over the next 24 hours, and 
shortly after that time Lowell will be moving near an SST gradient 
and into an area of less favorable thermodynamic conditions.  As a 
result, little change in strength is shown between 24-60 h, but 
gradual weakening should begin after that time when Lowell moves 
over cooler waters and into an area of increasing southwesterly 
shear.  With Lowell moving along the SST gradient for the next 
several days, a track north of the official forecast could result in 
both a faster rate of weakening, and the system becoming 
post-tropical much sooner than indicated below, but a track farther 
south could result in slightly more intensification.  The NHC 
intensity forecast is a little above the SHIPS guidance and is in 
best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.

Lowell is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt.  A west-northwestward 
motion is expected, to the southwest of a subtropical ridge near 
Baja California.  The ridge is forecast to build to the north of 
Lowell over the next couple of days which should impart a westward 
turn by late Wednesday, with a general westward heading continuing 
through the remainder of the forecast period.  Although there is 
little cross-track spread in the guidance models, there are 
significant speed differences (along-track spread) with the ECMWF 
model much faster than the GFS.  The NHC track is slightly faster 
than the previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus 
aids and the GFS and UKMET ensemble means.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 19.4N 119.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 20.4N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 20.7N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 20.9N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  25/1200Z 21.0N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  27/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0000Z 21.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 

Tropical Storm Lowell Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020


000
FOPZ12 KNHC 230244
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172020               
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LOWELL WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
20N 120W       34 74  13(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
20N 120W       50 11   1(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
20N 120W       64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
20N 125W       34  X   4( 4)  26(30)  18(48)   1(49)   X(49)   X(49)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
25N 125W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  20(22)   5(27)   1(28)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    

Tropical Storm Lowell Graphics


Tropical Storm Lowell 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 02:46:34 GMT

Tropical Storm Lowell 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 03:48:29 GMT
   
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