Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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FXUS66 KSTO 150410

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
810 PM PST Wed Nov 14 2018

Dry with cooling trend into next week. Some potential for wetter
weather middle to later part of next week. Gusty wind possible
over Sierra Nevada Saturday night into Sunday elevating fire
weather conditions.


Widespread smoke from the Camp Fire in Butte County resulted in
reduced visibilities across much of the Central Valley today.
Observing stations currently reporting visibilities below 3 miles
between KRDD and KMOD with local visibilities down to 1/2 mile,
KOVE to KBAB. Latest HRRR Smoke model showing denser smoke
shifting south and west across the Central Valley overnight as
light downslope easterly flow from the Sierra Nevada develops.

Heights/thickness begin a downward trend Friday that continues
through the weekend into next week. This will result cooling with
high temperatures returning to near normal by the middle of next
week. Smoke will continue to be a problem in the Central Valley
Friday into Saturday. Models show short wave trough digging into
the Great Basin Saturday night into Sunday. As it does, surface
pressure gradient increases across eastern portions of California.
Gusty NEly wind can be expected over ridges and through favorably
oriented canyons of the eastern foothills including the
Motherlode, and mountains of Western Plumas county and Northern
Sierra Nevada. This will result in elevated fire weather concerns
Saturday night into Sunday which could also impact the Camp Fire
operations. Pressure gradient decreases Sunday afternoon, but
trends up some again Sunday night and Monday night.



EPAC upper high shifts inland over NorCal Sunday resulting in
increased easterly flow over the eastern foothills and mountains.
Upper high forecast to progress into the Great Basin Monday as
trapped closed low to the south approaches CA. Progs weaken low to
trough as it moves inland across SoCal Tuesday. Medium models
diverge significantly beyond Tuesday. EC brings stronger short
wave trough into NorCal Wednesday with ridging returning Thursday,
while GFS maintains upper ridging through Thursday. GEFS and
NAEFSs showing upper troughing similar to EC, but slower
progression with wave moving inland Thursday. Consensus points to
some precip possible towards the latter part of next week, but low
confidence in timing and amounts attm.


Widespread MVFR likely the next 24 hours across Central Valley
with local IFR conditions due to smoke from the Butte County
wildfire. Surface winds generally below 10 knots.



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