NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 161015
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
315 AM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures continue early this week. Patchy smoke
and haze will continue, mainly over Shasta County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Skies are clear across interior NorCal early this morning. Current
temperatures are cooler compared to 24 hours ago and range from
the lower 30s in the mountain valleys to the 50s to around 60
across the Central Valley.

The upper trough will weaken a bit across NorCal early this week
as the cold low centered over Vancouver Island gradually shifts
east the next few days. The result will be dry and slightly milder
conditions through Tuesday, though highs will remain below
average. Ridging from the eastern Pacific returns Wednesday along
with dry northerly flow and warm temperatures back to around
average.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Extended period will start out with seasonal temperatures as
zonal flow develops. Forecast high temperatures on Thursday are
anticipated to be in the 80s to low 90s across the Central Valley,
and 60s to 80s over the mountains. A shortwave trough is forecast
to slide into the Pacific NW late Thursday into Friday, bringing
breezy afternoon winds over the Sierra on Friday. Models diverge
heading into next weekend as an upper trough deepens over the
Eastern Pacific. Therefore, forecast confidence is low regarding
temperatures and winds. Current forecast is a blend of model
solutions, with temperatures around or slightly below cooler than
normal, and increasing winds over higher terrain. Expect model
differences to increase as we transition into the wet season over
the next several weeks. Dry weather is likely to continue across
interior NorCal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions the next 24 hours except for local MVFR/IFR near
the Delta fire. Gusts to 20 kts through the Delta after 03z
Monday. Otherwise, expect winds generally below 15 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$
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