NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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374
FXUS66 KSTO 250649
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1048 PM PST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS  
Below normal temperatures will continue. Additional systems next week will bring more widespread precipitation. The first system with very low snow levels will move into the region Sunday night and Monday.
.DISCUSSION  Update: Clearing occurring over most of the CWA as the wx system moves across the Great Basin. The exception is low cloudiness stubbornly persisting over the higher elevations of the Sierra and may not mix-out/erode overnite. Short wave energy off the B.C. Coast will be diving Swd on Sun on a more Wly track (off the W Coast) than the system last Thu. Looks as if this system will have a little more moisture to work with than Thu`s system and its more Wly track will result in a better chance of precip in the Valley. Similar snowfall amounts to the Thu system are expected over the Sierra with this next system. JHM .Previous Discussion  
A weak system is moving into the Great Basin this afternoon and may produce some light showers along the western slopes into the evening hours before drying out. Another cold night is in store for the interior although temperatures should be a little bit warmer than this mornings lows. The next system is looking like it will bring widespread precipitation to Northern California Sunday night and Monday. This system will be dropping down from the north and will have a lot of cold air associated with it. As the system moves south late Sunday night and Monday morning the models are indicating some enhancement over the Motherlode. Have issued a winter storm watch for now due to the amount of snowfall and timing of the event likely having significant impacts on travel Monday morning over the Motherlode and western slopes. 2 to 5 inches of snow is expected above 2000 feet for the Motherlode with lessor amounts possible down to around 1500 feet. Further north have issued an advisory since the amounts are expected to be much lighter but snow levels will drop to 1500 feet...  possibly around 1000 feet over Shasta County with some snow likely accumulating along I-5 north of Shasta Lake. The system will taper from north to south during the day on Monday and Monday evening for the southern forecast areas. Some convective showers with brief heavy precipitation and small hail may occur behind the front mainly Monday afternoon. Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected to develop behind the front on Monday and persist into Tuesday for the valley. The strongest winds look like they will be over the north and west end of the valley. Northerly winds will continue on Tuesday but wind speeds are not expected to be as strong. Tuesday will be a day in between systems with warmer daytime highs.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION  (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)   The wet pattern continues through the extended period as another winter storm is slated to impact the area. Current model runs bring the storm in a little earlier than previous forecasts. Rain and snow showers now forecast to impact the higher elevations and northern counties Wednesday afternoon before spreading to the valley overnight Wednesday. Heavy precipitation is expected Thursday throughout the area with another wave of precipitation moving in Friday into Saturday. Currently, this storm system is forecast to bring substantial precipitation accumulations to the area. Liquid precipitation amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches in the valley and 1.5 to 4 inches in the foothills and mountains are expected. Forecast snow amounts are on the order to 2 to 3 feet at pass level with significant snowfall possible down to 3000 feet. Strong winds are forecast with this system, especially over the mountains, which could bring additional impacts to the mountain passes. Details are still changing with this weather system this far out, so stay tuned to future updates on this storm. HEC
.AVIATION 
VFR conditions next 24 hours except local MVFR conditions over the mountains due to scattered snow showers through 6z Sunday. Winds less than 12 kts at TAF sites except for gusts up to 20 kts from KRBL northward through 0z Sunday.
.STO   WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES    
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 2 PM PST Monday for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. Winter Storm Watch from late Sunday night through Monday evening for Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada.
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