Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KSTO 121034

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
334 AM PDT Thu Jul 12 2018

Well above normal temperatures next several days with hottest
temperatures over the weekend. Monsoonal moisture will bring
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the higher elevations
today into next week.


Weak upper through that moved through the Pacific Northwest
Wednesday has moved eastward into the northern Great Basin this
morning. This should allow monsoon moisture over the southwest U.S
to move at least a little farther up the Sierra today so Isolated
thunderstorms remain in the forecast south of about Tahoe. Some
high cloud cover will likely occur elsewhere. Daytime highs today
will remain quite warm under upper level ridging. Overall airmass
remains about the same but with high clouds and a slightly deeper
marine layer there may be a drop of a degree or two. As upper
ridge pushes back to the northwest on Friday, monsoon moisture
should make it up the Sierra a bit farther north. The west side of
the forecast area may see a bit of action as well on Friday as a
weak offshore low pivots a shortwave disturbance up the north
state coastline which may generate a few showers or thunderstorms
along the coast range. Otherwise, cloud cover and a slight airmass
cooling should bring a slight cool off for the end of the week
but highs will still remain a few degrees above normal. Overall
airmass warms over the weekend as high pressure strengthens over
the west coast. Highs by Sunday will reach or top 100 across most
of the central valley with well above normal temperatures all
areas. Heat risk indicators show heat advisory should be
considered Saturday over the northern Sacramento valley and
foothills with a still bigger consideration area on Sunday as
daytime highs push to about 10 degrees above normal. Southeast to
south flow aloft will continue to bring monsoon moisture up the
coast so Sierra crest thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.


Strong high pressure will maintain hot weather across the region
next week. The northern Sierra Nevada will continue to see a
slight chance for late-day showers and thunderstorms. Highs across
warmest portions of the forecast area will be around 5-10 degrees
above average.


VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms over the
Sierra Nevada south of Lake Tahoe after 22Z. Local south wind
10-15 kts in the Sacramento Valley, and 20-30 kts in the Delta,
after 00Z.


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