Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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FXUS66 KSTO 112318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
318 PM PST Sun Nov 11 2018

Dry weather continues with cool nights and near to above normal
days through the week. Critical fire weather conditions continue
through Monday morning, with breezy winds and low humidity.
Widespread smoke from the Camp Fire will continue to impact much
of the area.


Latest satellite imagery shows interior NorCal on the east side of
a persistent upper ridge over the eastern Pacific. Widespread
smoke and haze continues to envelop the region due to the Camp
Fire. Current observations indicate Valley gusts up to 25 mph, and
local wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph over the mountains. Gradient is
trending down, with lighter wind expected by Monday afternoon.

Winds will gradually diminish across the Valley tonight as
pressure gradient relaxes. Gusty wind will persist over the
eastern foothills/mountains through Monday morning, then lighter
wind is anticipated in the afternoon. The combination of wind, low
humidity, and near record dry fuels is bringing critical fire
weather conditions. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for
the Central Sacramento Valley southward until 9 PM, and until
Monday morning for higher elevations.

Wildfire smoke continues to be an issue, with poor visibility for
some spots, and bad air quality. Latest HRRR smoke forecast
indicates smoke continuing to impact the region mainly from Chico
southward, with some improvement on the west side of the Valley.
Periods of dense smoke will be possible across the Valley for the
next few days, although it`ll be difficult to determine breaks in
smoke. Make sure to check on sensitive groups, and go to for air quality information.

The region will remain under the influence of a persistent upper
ridge, resulting in dry weather. Smoke might help to keep
temperatures cooler the next couple of days. High temperatures
will be in the 60s to mid 70s for the Central Valley, with mostly
50s to 60s for the foothills and mountains. Cold overnight
temperatures are expected mainly over the Central Sacramento
Valley southward, with lows in the 30s. Lows will be in the 10s
to low 20s across mountain basin locations.


Broad upper ridge forecast to continue across the region later in
the week maintaining dry weather with mild days and cool nights,
and no strong wind events are expected. Forecast guidance is
indicating the possibility of a pattern change as an upper trough
approaches the area late next weekend into early next week.
However, confidence in details remains low so have kept the area
dry for now.


Widespread MVFR with local IFR expected to continue next 24 hours
south of KCIC as smoke continues to spread southward from the
Butte County wildfire. VFR to the north of KCIC and over the
higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Local northerly wind gusts
to 25 kts over far west side of the valley will decrease after
02Z. Local northeast wind gusts to 30 kts will continue over the
west slopes northern Sierra Nevada.


Red Flag Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Northern Motherlode
From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-
Amador and ElDorado Units-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-
Northern Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S
West of the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-
Beckworth Peak)-Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado
NF/S West of the Sierra Crest-Southern Motherlode From 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Stanislaus
NF West of the Sierra Crest.

Red Flag Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Burney Basin and
Northeast Plateau in Shasta County Including Northwest Lassen NF
north of Lassen NP-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below
1000 Ft-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of
Tehama-Glenn Unit.

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for Carquinez
Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa,
Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Southern
Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer,
southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft.


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