NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 111606
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
905 AM PDT Wed Jul 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures continue through the week into the weekend.
Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the higher elevations late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Update: Marine layer deepened nearly 1 kft from 24 hrs which has
prompted some 3-8 degrees of cooling in the Valley/lower elevations
this morning. As a weak trof moves through the Pac NW today 850 mbs
temps forecast to warm just slightly over yesterday, and at this
time the Max T`s for the CWA look good with the hourly LAMP guidance
also trending accordingly.

Next couple of days look seasonably hot, with the GFS suggesting
possibly hotter wx this weekend and into early next week. 5H heights
forecast to rise/build this weekend behind a weak SEly short wave
that will advect/spread some monsoon moisture over our area Thu and
Fri bringing a chance of mtn thunderstorms with it. Elevated
instability progs have low to marginal TT`s in our CWA so storm
coverage expected to be limited.

The High Center retrogrades from the Great Basin and across CA this
weekend which could bring at least a heat advisory situation to our
CWA. 850 mbs temps are forecast to rise into the mid to upper 20s
deg C range along with rising low to mid level thicknesses. The WR
Confidence tool shows the 40 deg C isotherm at 1000 hPa spreading
Wwd from NV into Norcal often a signal of at least significant heat
in our CWA. We will take a closer look at our weekend temps for the
afternoon package, and then message accordingly.  JHM


.Previous Discussion...

A ridge over the Great Basin will slowly retrograde pushing
monsoon moisture north into the region later Wednesday. Mostly
dry conditions are expected on Wednesday as there will be a lack
of CAPE and forcing, but an isolated afternoon storm can`t be
ruled out in the far southeast part of the CWA. Moisture will
continue to overspread NorCal on Thursday with decent MUCAPE over
the mountains, mainly south of I-80. Storms still should remain on
the isolated side due to a lack of forcing. Moisture and MUCAPE
looks to overspread the rest of the mountains and coastal range on
Friday, and as such I have increased the chance of precipitation in
the forecast. However, once again models currently lack any strong
forcing which should keep convection isolated in nature. Moisture
retreats east Saturday, limiting isolated showers and thunderstorms
to the southeast portion of the CWA again.

Hot temperatures will continue leading into the weekend. The
northern Sacramento valley could see high temperatures up to 108
degrees through Saturday. This remains just below heat advisory
levels, though it does bring a moderate heat risk for the northern
valley and foothills. The rest of the valley will remain in the
mid to upper 90s due to weak onshore flow, and the foothills and
mountains will range from the 70s to 90s. -CJM/HEC

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

Upper level high pressure will continue to influence the weather
across northern California for Sunday through the middle of next
week. Light northwesterly to northerly flow across the Sierra will
keep afternoon showers and thunderstorm chances confined to the
Sierra mainly south of highway 50, although other mountain pop up
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Warm weather will continue with temperatures ranging between 5 and
10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Temperatures will return to
just slightly above normal through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Light winds through the
valley with gusts up to 25 kts in the delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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