NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 141017
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
317 AM PDT Fri Sep 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures for the remainder of the week. Patchy
smoke and haze will continue, mainly over Shasta County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quasi-stationary longwave upper trough remains over the eastern
Pacific and PacNW with the mid/upper jet slicing into central
California. Skies are clear except for a band of high clouds
associated with the jet arcing into the southern portion of the
forecast area. Current temperatures are cooler compared to 24
hours ago, given less cloudiness and lighter winds, and range from
the 30s in the mountain valleys to the 50s to lower 60s across the
Central Valley.

High temperatures will remain below average into early next week
as the upper trough lingers, but will warm slightly inland Sunday
and Monday as heights/thickness rebound as the trough weakens.
Overnight lows will be chilly with patchy frost possible in the
mountain valleys. Locally breezy conditions will be possible in
the mountains during the afternoons the next few days, especially
Saturday as a stronger shortwave moves by to our south.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)
Extended period will start out under upper level troughing over
the west coast keeping daytime high temperatures below normal and
bringing breezy afternoon winds to the Sierra. At this time, it
appears any precipitation will remain north of the forecast area.
Upper trough shifts east of the state on Wednesday with upper
ridging filling in over the west coast. Onshore flow and cool
airmass will keep daytime highs well below normal with another
afternoon of breezy winds over the Sierra. Models diverge quite a
bit for second half of extended period with ECMWF building a ridge
over the west coast Thursday and Friday while GFS digs in another
trough along the west coast. Both models have been flip flopping
between runs so overall confidence in the forecast for this period
is lowered. In either case, forecast remains dry through the
remainder of the extended period. Will trend with GFS for
temperatures keeping daytime highs a little below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Local MVFR/IFR near
wildfires. West wind gusts 15-20 mph through the delta. Southwest
wind gusts 20 to 33 knots afternoon and evening hours over the
Sierra. Otherwise winds generally below 15 knots.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$
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