NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 101017
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
317 AM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures continue through the week. Monsoonal moisture
will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms to the higher
elevations late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Upper level trough continues moving through the PacNW through
overnight through the morning with an upper level ridge located
over the Great Basin. Winds have begun shifting to the north due
to the trough passage and will be locally breezy throughout
Tuesday. Smoke from the Klamathon Fire could push south into
Shasta county again, though it is expected to remain mainly aloft.
Ridging builds Wednesday with the ridge over the Great Basin
beginning to retrograde Thursday and Friday. This will allow
monsoonal moisture to push northwest into the area beginning late
Wednesday. As of now, mountain storm chances remain limited to the
far southeast portion of our forecast area. Temperatures remain
hot with temperatures ranging from the mid 90s over most of the
valley to 106 in the northern Sacramento valley. Foothills will
remain in the 90s and the mountains 70s to 80s. HEC

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Latest model runs of the GFS and ECMWF are in better agreement
with a upper level ridge of high pressure dominating the forecast
for this weekend into early next week. Current temperature trends
will have afternoon high temperatures right around normal for mid
July.

Monsoon moisture will be in the vicinity of the region under the
high pressure system centered over the Great Basin, and general
afternoon convection is possible each afternoon for the Sierra.
Although conditions are not that great for thunderstorm
development, scattered showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out for the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Light winds through the
valley with gusts up to 25 kts in the delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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