NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 110023
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
423 PM PST Sat Nov 10 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry with warmer than normal temperatures through next week. Critical
fire weather conditions return tonight through Monday morning.
Widespread smoke from the Camp Fire will continue to impact much
of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest satellite imagery reveals widespread smoke and haze
enveloping interior NorCal due to the Camp Fire. Afternoon
temperatures are currently in the upper 50s to mid 60s across the
Valley, except for the northern Sacramento Valley where wildfire
smoke is not impacting the area. Poor visibilities are occurring
across portions of the Central Valley and the Delta, with some
locations reporting visibilities less than a mile. As such, a
Dense Smoke Advisory is in effect through 4 AM Sunday due to poor
visibilities.

The forecast area remains on the east side of Pacific ridging,
with a dry airmass over the area. An upper trough will continue
to drop into the Great Basin tonight into tomorrow, with another
round of gusty north to east winds developing overnight. The
enhanced surface gradient will result in gusty winds tonight,
mainly across portions of the western Sacramento Valley and the
western slopes of the Sierra Nevada. The strongest winds will
last through about 11 AM, with winds decreasing during the day as
pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will pick up again late Sunday
into early Monday, mainly over the northeastern foothills/mountains.
The combination of gusty winds and low humidity will lead to
critical fire weather conditions tonight into Monday morning.
Therefore, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of
interior NorCal through Monday morning. Lighter winds are expected
Monday afternoon as surface pressure gradients relax.

HRRR smoke model keeps a similar type of smoke plume again on
Sunday. Periods of dense smoke will be possible across the Valley
for the next few days, although it`ll be difficult to determine
breaks in smoke. Therefore, smoke will continue to be an issue
in terms of air quality, visibility, and reduced temperatures.

No precipitation is expected across interior NorCal as high
pressure remains in control of the region. Daytime highs are
expected to be 5 to 10 above seasonal normals through the forecast
period. Forecast highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s across
the Valley. Morning lows are anticipated to be in the 30s to mid
40s across the Valley, with in the 10s to low 20s across mountain
basin locations.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)
Dry weather with mild days and cool nights expected to continue
during the second half of next week as a strong ridge remains over
the West downstream of a deepening trough over the eastern
Pacific. No strong wind events are expected. The mountain areas
and far northern portion of the forecast area may see a few
showers by next Saturday as the initial batch of short-wave energy
moves ashore, but confidence in details remains low.

&&
&&

.AVIATION...
Smoke from Butte County wildfire will continue to drift mainly
southward the next 24 hours resulting in areas of MVFR with local
IFR conditions. Elevated smoke layer expected to remain around
050-070 from around the Sacramento area southward. Look for
increasingly gusty northerly winds of 15-25 kts across the
Sacramento Valley TAF sites after 06Z Sunday. &&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Monday for
Burney Basin and Northeast Plateau in Shasta County Including
Northwest Lassen NF north of Lassen NP-Carquinez Strait and
Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern
Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-
Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-
Napa-Sonoma Unit-Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado
Units-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line
Below 1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft.
Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern
Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of
the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth
Peak)-Northern Sierra Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West
of the Sierra Crest-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western
Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Motherlode From 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern
Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer,
southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF
West of the Sierra Crest.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to noon PST Sunday for
Motherlode-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Dense Smoke Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$
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