NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 231737
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
935 AM PST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS  
Below normal temperatures will continue. Snow showers possible over the mountains Saturday with additional systems next week bringing more widespread precipitation.
.DISCUSSION  Update: Dry Nly flow eroding/mixing out the thin band of stratus on the E side of the Srn Sac/Nrn SJV this morning. Clear, dry, cool N wind today, with decreasing wind in the afternoon as pressure gradients relax. Next system off the B.C. Coast will not be impactful for Norcal, a weak, rather nuisance wx system. Mostly high clouds expected to increase over the CWA on Sat with some lower cloud ceilings over the Mtns with isolated light snow showers/flurries. Another frosty morning expected on Sat in the Srn Sac Vly, Delta and Nrn SJV, while the timing of cloud cover for the Nrn portion of the CWA looks to be around sunrise or a little after, with still a chance of frost again. Mon wx system looks like another cold, low QPF, high snow ratio system with the Valley seeing more rainfall than yesterday`s system. NAM forecasts around a quarter inch for SAC and this looks like the last shot of rain this month. DTS rainfall for the month remains at zero through today, although SAC Exec had .01" yesterday. Here are the driest Febs for DTS: 0.04 in 1899, 0.16 in 1913, 0.19 in 1995, 0.21 in 1953, and .26 in 1997 and 2013. March may come in as the "proverbial lion" especially if the 23/00z ECMWF verifies. JHM .Previous Discussion  
System that brought low elevation snow and showers to the valley yesterday has pushed out of the area this morning. As skies clear, temperatures dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the valley with teens and single digits in the mountains. Dry weather is expected today but breezy northerly winds will develop in system`s wake. Gusts of 15 to 30 mph possible across the valley with higher gusts in the mountains. Another chilly overnight into Saturday morning with frost on tap as valley temperatures drop near or just below the freezing mark. Another system will drop southeast in northerly flow, moving into NorCal on Saturday. This wave looks weaker and drier than Thursday`s system with showers likely confined to the mountains, north of the Highway 50 corridor. While snow levels remain quite low, there`s not much moisture to work with so expecting accumulations less than an inch or two. Still may be enough to cause some slick roads. For the rest of the area, expect increased cloud cover. Could see a brief period of breezy southerly winds, mainly across northern Sacramento Valley and across higher terrain. Sunday looks dry across the area before next system quickly drops southeast into the area for Monday. Models in decent agreement, bringing precipitation and another round of breezy winds to the area during the day. This wave looks similar in strength and amounts to Thursday`s storm, though perhaps may bring a little more widespread rain to the valley (regardless, still not very much). Snow levels will be around the 2000-3000 feet range with another half foot of snow at pass levels and a dusting down into the foothills. Those with travel plans should keep an eye on the forecast as chain controls and delays will be possible. CEO
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION  (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)  Models continue to show gradual retrogression of the large-scale trough next week, but lots of differences continue in the details. Mainly dry weather expected Tuesday and Wednesday, then prospects for more significant precipitation increase later next week. Stay tuned.
.AVIATION 
VFR conditions next 24 hours except local MVFR Central Valley south of KOVE til about 18Z. Northerly surface winds develop thru the Central Valley by 18Z with gusts 20-25 kts.
.STO   WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES    
None.   
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