NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 190935
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
235 AM PDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather continues into next week. Enhanced fire weather
concerns tonight and Thursday. Patchy smoke and haze will persist,
mainly locally over northern portions of Shasta County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A few high clouds are moving across the far northern portion of
the state associated with the passing weak trough. Otherwise,
skies are clear across the region. Current temperatures are a tad
warmer compared to 24 hours ago across most of the area and range
from the 30s in the mountain valleys to the mid 50s to mid 60s
across the Central Valley.

Upper level ridging strengthens the remainder of the week
resulting in warmer temperatures with daytime highs returning to
average, or slightly above average.

Locally gusty northerly winds will develop across portions of the
Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain tonight into Thursday
with the strongest winds expected Thursday. The warmer
temperatures and northerly winds will lower humidity levels over
the northern and northwestern portion of our forecast area. This
has increased fire weather concerns, and as such a fire weather
watch has been issued for this time period. Winds are expected to
subside by Friday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)
The upper trough over the Pacific Northwest will shift east
toward the northern Rockies on Sunday, with possibly northerly
flow developing across Northern CA Sunday or Monday.

Both the GFS and ECMWF are converging on a solution with a Rex
Block pattern developing over the eastern Pacific next week, as a
closed upper low becomes embedded within a large scale ridge.
Confidence is increasing that Northern California will remain
under strong subsidence early next week. As such, dry weather is
likely to continue through the extended period. We have warmed
forecast temperatures several degrees early next week, reflecting
the growing confidence in this ridge pattern. Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions the next 24 hours except for local MVFR/IFR due to
smoke near the Delta fire. Light winds across Valley terminals
will become north 5-15 kt later today and tonight. Dang

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from this evening through Thursday afternoon
for Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern
Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-
Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-
Napa-Sonoma Unit-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama
County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to
3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-
Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-
Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far
Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft.

&&

$$
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