NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jan 27 - 31, 2022 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jan 29 - Feb 04, 2022 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jan 21, 2022


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Fri January 21 2022 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 27 - 31 2022 
 
During the 6-10 day period, a large amplitude 500-hPa ridge is expected over  
the Bering Sea, south to the Northeast Pacific. A significant pattern change is  
forecast over much of the CONUS, however, with a ridge evolving into a trough  
over the Western half of the CONUS during the period, leading to small mean  
500-hPa anomalies in the West. Over the Eastern half of the CONUS mean  
troughing is predicted for the 6-10 day period as a whole, however 500-hPa  
heights are expected to rise throughout the period, with the pattern becoming  
nearly zonal by the end of the period. Today's manual 500-hPa blend favors the  
0z ECMWF ensemble mean, which has shown the best run-to-run consistency over  
the past several days. Recent ECMWF ensemble runs have consistently evolved the  
large scale pattern (troughing developing over the West and troughing weakening  
in the East) faster than the other models. Since today's ECMWF ensemble mean  
was favored, the temperature and precipitation tools based on the ECMWF  
ensemble mean were given more credence than the GEFS or Canadian ensemble means. 
 
As forecast heights fall over much of the Western CONUS, surface temperatures  
are expected to decrease, leading to increased chances of below normal  
temperatures over the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin.  
Over parts of the Southwest and Great Plains, positive temperature anomalies  
early in the 6-10 day period slightly favor above normal temperatures in those  
regions. Well below normal temperatures (anomalies of -10 to -20 degrees F)  
early in the period significantly increase chances of below normal temperatures  
for the eastern third of the CONUS, especially near the Southeast coast where  
forecast negative anomalies persist the longest during the period.  
 
As the predicted trough develops over the West towards the end of the period,  
several shortwave troughs support an enhanced likelihood of above normal  
precipitation from the Cascades east to parts of the Northern Plains. Behind  
the mean through forecast over the Eastern CONUS, below normal precipitation is  
favored near the Great Lakes. A potential storm system during the second half  
of the period is becoming more likely somewhere in the Eastern U.S., as the  
past several runs of the GEFS, Canadian and ECMWF ensemble means forecast a  
storm, though there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to where/when the  
system may develop. The general support for this storm to develop favors above  
normal precipitation for the Gulf Coast states, northward to parts of the  
southern New England coast. 
 
The forecast large-amplitude ridge forecast over Alaska favors near to below  
normal temperatures for the state. This ridging and expected surface high  
pressure covering most of the state reduces chances of above normal  
precipitation relative to yesterday's outlook. 
 
The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 40% of Today's 6z GFS  
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean  
centered on Day 8  
  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Well below average, 1 out of 5,  
due to a significant pattern change occurring during the period, and some  
disagreement between the models and tools. 
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JAN 29 - FEB 04, 2022  
 
By the week-2 period, the forecast trough becomes well established over the  
Western CONUS, while the predicted large-amplitude ridge persists over the  
Northeast Pacific. The evolution of the 500-hPa pattern over the Eastern U.S.  
is more uncertain. While today's GEFS and Canadian ensemble means forecast weak  
negative 500-hPa anomalies to persist over much of the East, yesterday's and  
today's ECMWF ensemble means forecast an increase in heights over the East and  
more southerly flow when compared to the GEFS and Canadian ensemble means. The  
ECMWF is still favored for the week-2 period due to better run-to-run  
consistency and better agreement with it's comparable deterministic run, so  
today's manual 500-hPa blend for the week-2 period depicts weak positive height  
anomalies over much of the East. 
 
With the forecast trough becoming more pronounced in the West, below normal  
temperatures are favored for the West Coast, Great Basin, Northern Rockies and  
Northern Plains. The expectation that southerly low-level flow strengthens  
ahead of the western trough leads to an increased chance of above normal  
temperatures across the South Central CONUS. Colder temperatures forecast  
during the beginning of the period for parts of Florida and the Southeast and  
Mid-Atlantic coasts slightly favor below normal temperatures there.  
 
Additional shortwaves in the forecast trough over the Western CONUS supports an  
enhanced likelihood of above normal precipitation for much of the western half  
of the CONUS. Probabilities are higher over parts of Montana and Wyoming due to  
the potential for upslope flow to enhance precipitation. One or more potential  
storm systems developing in the eastern U.S. favors above normal precipitation  
there. 
 
Strong surface high pressure forecast over Alaska leads to increased chances of  
below normal temperatures for the state. Very large positive 500-hPa height  
anomalies over Alaska favor near to below normal precipitation across the state. 
 
The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 40% of Today's  
operational 0z GFS centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble  
Mean centered on Day 11  
 
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Well below Average, 1 out of 5,  
due to large differences in the large-scale pattern between models over the  
Eastern U.S. and significant differences between models and statistical tools  
over the East. 
 
FORECASTER: Mike C 
 
Notes: 
 
 
Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual  
intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In  
these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. 
 
 
The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as  
that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below 
 
 
The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange,  
"A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average  
values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green,  
"A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values  
for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the  
shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A).  
 Probability of N is always < 40%. 
 
 
In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a  
greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal  
(i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases  
a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no  
precipitation. 
 
 
The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in  
the climate outlooks. 
 
The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on  
February 17. 
 
 
Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20090111 - 19990105 - 19620203 - 19630122 - 20020114 
 
 
Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) 
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude 
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:  
20090111 - 19910118 - 19990104 - 19760201 - 19620108 
 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 27 - 31 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    N     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   N    N      
SRN CALIF   A    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      N    N      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   N    A     WYOMING     N    A      
UTAH        B    N     ARIZONA     A    N     COLORADO    A    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    N     N DAKOTA    N    N     S DAKOTA    N    A      
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    N    N      
N TEXAS     N    N     S TEXAS     N    N     W TEXAS     N    N      
MINNESOTA   N    N     IOWA        N    N     MISSOURI    N    N      
ARKANSAS    N    N     LOUISIANA   B    A     WISCONSIN   N    B      
ILLINOIS    N    B     MISSISSIPPI B    A     MICHIGAN    N    B      
INDIANA     N    B     OHIO        B    B     KENTUCKY    B    N      
TENNESSEE   B    N     ALABAMA     B    A     NEW YORK    B    N      
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N      
MASS        B    A     CONN        B    A     RHODE IS    B    A      
PENN        B    N     NEW JERSEY  B    A     W VIRGINIA  B    N      
MARYLAND    B    A     DELAWARE    B    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    N     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    N     AK SO COAST B    N     AK PNHDL    B    N      
  
                            
 
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE 
Outlook for Jan 29 - Feb 04, 2022 
 
STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN    
WASHINGTON  B    A     OREGON      B    A     NRN CALIF   B    A      
SRN CALIF   B    N     IDAHO       B    A     NEVADA      B    A      
W MONTANA   B    A     E MONTANA   B    A     WYOMING     B    A      
UTAH        B    A     ARIZONA     N    N     COLORADO    N    A      
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    B    A     S DAKOTA    B    A      
NEBRASKA    N    A     KANSAS      A    A     OKLAHOMA    A    A      
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    A      
MINNESOTA   N    A     IOWA        N    A     MISSOURI    A    A      
ARKANSAS    A    A     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   N    A      
ILLINOIS    A    A     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    A      
INDIANA     A    A     OHIO        N    A     KENTUCKY    A    A      
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A      
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A      
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A      
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A      
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    B    A      
N CAROLINA  B    A     S CAROLINA  B    A     GEORGIA     B    A      
FL PNHDL    B    A     FL PENIN    B    N     AK N SLOPE  B    N      
AK ALEUTIAN B    B     AK WESTERN  B    N     AK INT BSN  B    N      
AK S INT    B    B     AK SO COAST B    B     AK PNHDL    B    B      
  
                           LEGEND 
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN 
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN 
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW 
  
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL 
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE 
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. 
  
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS 
PMDMRD. 
 
$$ 
 

                   


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