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Updated:  Wed Nov 30 00:45:03 UTC 2022

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MD Legend Image Mesoscale Discussion #1985
MD1985 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1985
Issued: 30/0019 UTC
Until: 30/0145 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

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  • SPC MD 1985

    Wed, 30 Nov 2022 00:20:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE
    MD 1985 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1985
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0619 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
    
    Areas affected...portions of southeast Arkansas into northern
    Mississippi and Middle Tennessee
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 300019Z - 300145Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
    
    SUMMARY...A large hail threat may persist with ongoing storms over
    the next several hours. Conditions are being monitored for the need
    of a WW issuance if storms can intensify further.
    
    DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery indicates gradually
    intensifying storms across southeast AR into northwest MS, with a
    few 50 dBZ echoes reaching 30 kft and some 1+ inch MESH streaks
    appearing in the past couple of hours. These storms are traversing
    the northwest fringe of the instability axis and on the easternmost
    axis of a 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, contributing to
    1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Both regional VADs and 00Z mesoanalysis
    depict elongated, straight hodographs and 50-70 kts of effective
    bulk shear, favoring splitting supercells with mainly a large hail
    threat. Ongoing storms may persist or perhaps increase in coverage
    and intensity for a period of time given the approach of a mid-level
    trough. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW
    issuance.
    
    ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/30/2022
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...
    
    LAT...LON   32999335 33989178 35748909 36678736 36718695 36418681
                35728696 35438699 34888760 33699016 33059185 32999335 
    
    
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