Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2021 Oct 12 2109 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
4.62 protons/cm3
350 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
9.55 (Bt) Moderate
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 422 km/s at 16/0932Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/0140Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0027Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 671 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Oct) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Oct 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 17-Oct 19 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 17 to Oct 19 2021
Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct 19
Forecast High  
2
4
4
00-03UT 2 2 4
03-06UT 2 2 3
06-09UT 1 2 2
09-12UT 1 3 2
12-15UT 1 3 3
15-18UT 1 3 3
18-21UT 1 3 2
21-00UT 2 4 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
0
2
1
1
0
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Oct 17 to Oct 19
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 30% 30%
Minor Storm 1% 5% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 20% 35% 35%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 17 to Oct 19 2021
Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct 19
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 17 to Oct 19 2021
Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct 19
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 Oct 11 0049 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2021 Oct 11 85 25 6 G2
2021 Oct 12 85 20 5 G1
2021 Oct 13 85 8 3
2021 Oct 14 85 5 2
2021 Oct 15 85 5 2
2021 Oct 16 85 5 2
2021 Oct 17 85 5 2
2021 Oct 18 85 10 3
2021 Oct 19 88 12 4
2021 Oct 20 90 10 3
2021 Oct 21 88 8 3
2021 Oct 22 88 5 2
2021 Oct 23 85 5 2
2021 Oct 24 85 5 2
2021 Oct 25 90 10 3
2021 Oct 26 100 5 2
2021 Oct 27 95 5 2
2021 Oct 28 90 5 2
2021 Oct 29 88 5 2
2021 Oct 30 88 5 2
2021 Oct 31 85 5 2
2021 Nov 01 85 5 2
2021 Nov 02 85 8 3
2021 Nov 03 85 5 2
2021 Nov 04 85 5 2
2021 Nov 05 85 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 78 6 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 350 km/sec 4.62 p/cm3 Bt 9.55 nT Bz -6.53 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 17 Oct 2021 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (11)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


The Einstein Cross Gravitational Lens
The Einstein Cross Gravitational Lens
2021 October 17

Explanation: Most galaxies have a single nucleus -- does this galaxy have four? The strange answer leads astronomers to conclude that the nucleus of the surrounding galaxy is not even visible in this image. The central cloverleaf is rather light emitted from a background quasar. The gravitational field of the visible foreground galaxy breaks light from this distant quasar into four distinct images. The quasar must be properly aligned behind the center of a massive galaxy for a mirage like this to be evident. The general effect is known as gravitational lensing, and this specific case is known as the Einstein Cross. Stranger still, the images of the Einstein Cross vary in relative brightness, enhanced occasionally by the additional gravitational microlensing effect of specific stars in the foreground galaxy.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: earthshine fireworks
Credit & License: J. Rhoads (Arizona State U.) et al., WIYN, AURA, NOIRLab, NSF
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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