Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2023 Mar 30 2053 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 4.33 - Unsettled
Kp= 4.33 - Unsettled
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M5.41 - R2 Class Flare
C1.52 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C1.2-Active 2023-03-31
B9.67 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
0.49 protons/cm3
596km/sec Mod. Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
5.12 (Bt) - Normal
0.606 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 30/0737Z from Region 3256 (S22W88). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/2027Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1817 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Mar 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31 to Apr 02 2023
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
Forecast High  
4.67 G1
3.67
3.67
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 3.67
03-06UT 4.67 G1 3.67 3.67
06-09UT 3.33 3.33 2.00
09-12UT 3.33 3.33 2.00
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.00 3.00 2.33
18-21UT 2.67 3.33 2.00
21-00UT 3.67 3.33 2.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2.33
2.67
3.33
3.00
3.67
4.33
2.67
4.33
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Mar 31 to Apr 02
Middle Latitudes Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
Active 45% 35% 35%
Minor Storm 25% 10% 10%
Major-severe storm 5% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
Active 10% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 70% 45% 40%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on Mar 31 due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31 to Apr 02 2023
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
S1 or greater 10% 5% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms on Mar 31 from Region 3256.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 30 2023 0737 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31 to Apr 02 2023
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02
Class: C-flare 99% 95% 95%
R1-R2 25% 20% 15%
R3 or greater 10% 5% 1%
PCAF Updated: Thursday, 30 Mar 2023 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on Mar 31. There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on Apr 01-02 due to the flare history of Region 3256.

Region Flare Probabilities for Mar 31, 2023
Region Class C M X P
3256 55% 25% 10% 10%
3257 5% 1% 1% 1%
3260 10% 1% 1% 1%
3262 10% 1% 1% 1%
3263 5% 1% 1% 1%
3264 5% 1% 1% 1%
3265 15% 1% 1% 1%
3266 5% 1% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Mar 27 0524 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2023 Mar 27 160 8 3
2023 Mar 28 155 8 3
2023 Mar 29 145 5 2
2023 Mar 30 145 5 2
2023 Mar 31 135 12 4
2023 Apr 01 135 15 4
2023 Apr 02 135 10 3
2023 Apr 03 135 8 3
2023 Apr 04 135 5 2
2023 Apr 05 132 5 2
2023 Apr 06 132 5 2
2023 Apr 07 132 5 2
2023 Apr 08 132 5 2
2023 Apr 09 130 5 2
2023 Apr 10 132 15 4
2023 Apr 11 135 12 4
2023 Apr 12 135 8 3
2023 Apr 13 140 5 2
2023 Apr 14 145 8 3
2023 Apr 15 148 8 3
2023 Apr 16 150 12 4
2023 Apr 17 150 10 3
2023 Apr 18 155 15 4
2023 Apr 19 155 5 2
2023 Apr 20 158 20 5 G1
2023 Apr 21 160 15 5 G1



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B9.67 140 17 4.33

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 596 km/sec 0.49 p/cm3 Bt 5.12 nT Bz -2.38 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

All Solar Cycles Chart

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


NGC 4372 and the Dark Doodad
NGC 4372 and the Dark Doodad
2023 March 30

Explanation: The delightful Dark Doodad Nebula drifts through southern skies, a tantalizing target for binoculars toward the small constellation Musca, The Fly. The dusty cosmic cloud is seen against rich starfields just south of the Coalsack Nebula and the Southern Cross. Stretching for about 3 degrees across the center of this telephoto field of view, the Dark Doodad is punctuated near its southern tip (upper right) by yellowish globular star cluster NGC 4372. Of course NGC 4372 roams the halo of our Milky Way Galaxy, a background object some 20,000 light-years away and only by chance along our line-of-sight to the Dark Doodad. The Dark Doodad's well defined silhouette belongs to the Musca molecular cloud, but its better known alliterative moniker was first coined by astro-imager and writer Dennis di Cicco in 1986 while observing Comet Halley from the Australian outback. The Dark Doodad is around 700 light-years distant and over 30 light-years long.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: tantalizing Titan
Credit & Copyright: Matias Tomasello
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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