





Advisories / Alerts |
Severe Wx Summary! | |
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Tue, Dec. 5, 2023-10:57:45pm
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Tue, Dec 5, 2023 - 11:01pm |
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Info Links
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2023 |
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0644Z from Region 3513 (N19E67). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec). |
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 05/1616Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu. |
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec). |

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Dec 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 06-Dec 08 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).
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Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
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Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 05 2023 0644 UTC.
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Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity will persist through 08 Dec.
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Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Dec 04 0332 UTC
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |

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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |

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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |

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This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression | F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression |
- Solar Cycles Highcharts
The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.

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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause. |


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Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
Source: Space Weather.com |

Energetic Particle Strikes the Earth | |||
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2023 December 5 |
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Explanation: It was one of the most energetic particles ever known to strike the Earth -- but where did it come from? Dubbed Amaterasu after the Shinto sun goddess, this particle, as do all cosmic rays that strike the Earth's atmosphere, caused an air shower of electrons, protons, and other elementary particles to spray down onto the Earth below. In the featured illustration, a cosmic ray air shower is pictured striking the Telescope Array in Utah, USA, which recorded the Amaterasu event in 2021 May. Cosmic ray air showers are common enough that you likely have been in a particle spray yourself, although you likely wouldn't have noticed. The origin of this energetic particle, likely the nucleus of an atom, remains a mystery in two ways. First, it is not known how any single particle or atomic nucleus can practically acquire so much energy, and second, attempts to trace the particle back to where it originated did not indicate any likely potential source. |
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High Resolution Image | |||
Tomorrow’s Image: torched by stars | |||
Credit : Osaka Metropolitan U./L-INSIGHT, Kyoto U./Ryuunosuke Takeshige | |||
Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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