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Severe Wx Summary! | ||||||||||||||||||
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Thu, Mar. 30, 2023-10:33:57pm
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Thu, Mar 30, 2023 - 10:40pm |
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2023 |
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 30/0737Z from Region 3256 (S22W88). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (31 Mar) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr). |
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 30/2027Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/1217Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/1421Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1817 pfu. |
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (31 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (01 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Mar). |

Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Mar 31 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2023 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).
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Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on Mar 31 due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
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Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms on Mar 31 from Region 3256.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Mar 30 2023 0737 UTC.
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Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, with a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts on Mar 31. There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on Apr 01-02 due to the flare history of Region 3256.
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Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Mar 27 0524 UTC
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Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |

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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |

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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |

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This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression | F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression |
The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.

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The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere. The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause. |


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Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
Source: Space Weather.com |

NGC 4372 and the Dark Doodad | |||
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2023 March 30 |
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Explanation: The delightful Dark Doodad Nebula drifts through southern skies, a tantalizing target for binoculars toward the small constellation Musca, The Fly. The dusty cosmic cloud is seen against rich starfields just south of the Coalsack Nebula and the Southern Cross. Stretching for about 3 degrees across the center of this telephoto field of view, the Dark Doodad is punctuated near its southern tip (upper right) by yellowish globular star cluster NGC 4372. Of course NGC 4372 roams the halo of our Milky Way Galaxy, a background object some 20,000 light-years away and only by chance along our line-of-sight to the Dark Doodad. The Dark Doodad's well defined silhouette belongs to the Musca molecular cloud, but its better known alliterative moniker was first coined by astro-imager and writer Dennis di Cicco in 1986 while observing Comet Halley from the Australian outback. The Dark Doodad is around 700 light-years distant and over 30 light-years long. |
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High Resolution Image | |||
Tomorrow’s Image: tantalizing Titan | |||
Credit & Copyright: Matias Tomasello | |||
Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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