Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2022 Jan 20 2120 UTC - Read More
SUMMARY: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
7.24 protons/cm3
491km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.45 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 20/0601Z from Region 2929 (N08W88). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (21 Jan) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 19/2117Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/0534Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -1 nT at 20/0839Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 22 pfu at 20/1015Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2656 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Jan) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (21 Jan).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Jan 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2022 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21 to Jan 23 2022
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23
Forecast High  
3
4
4
00-03UT 1 3 4
03-06UT 1 2 2
06-09UT 2 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 3
12-15UT 2 2 3
15-18UT 2 2 3
18-21UT 3 4 3
21-00UT 3 3 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jan 21 to Jan 23
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 20% 20% 35%
Minor Storm 5% 5% 15%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 5%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 10%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 25% 25% 50%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was above S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21 to Jan 23 2022
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23
S1 or greater 5% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Jan 20 2022 0601 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21 to Jan 23 2022
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23
R1-R2 10% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 Jan 17 0208 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2022 Jan 17 115 18 4
2022 Jan 18 115 10 3
2022 Jan 19 110 5 2
2022 Jan 20 108 5 2
2022 Jan 21 106 5 2
2022 Jan 22 102 5 2
2022 Jan 23 102 5 2
2022 Jan 24 102 8 3
2022 Jan 25 102 8 3
2022 Jan 26 100 8 3
2022 Jan 27 100 5 2
2022 Jan 28 95 10 3
2022 Jan 29 90 10 3
2022 Jan 30 90 10 3
2022 Jan 31 95 5 2
2022 Feb 01 100 5 2
2022 Feb 02 105 5 2
2022 Feb 03 110 5 2
2022 Feb 04 110 15 5 G1
2022 Feb 05 110 10 3
2022 Feb 06 110 5 2
2022 Feb 07 110 5 2
2022 Feb 08 110 5 2
2022 Feb 09 110 5 2
2022 Feb 10 110 12 4
2022 Feb 11 110 15 4



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 99 5 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 491 km/sec 7.24 p/cm3 Bt 3.45 nT Bz 2.87 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 20 Jan 2022 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (57)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


NGC 7822 in Cepheus
NGC 7822 in Cepheus
2022 January 20

Explanation: Hot, young stars and cosmic pillars of gas and dust seem to crowd into NGC 7822. At the edge of a giant molecular cloud toward the northern constellation Cepheus, the glowing star forming region lies about 3,000 light-years away. Within the nebula, bright edges and dark shapes stand out in this colorful telescopic skyscape. The image includes data from narrowband filters, mapping emission from atomic oxygen, hydrogen, and sulfur into blue, green, and red hues. The emission line and color combination has become well-known as the Hubble palette. The atomic emission is powered by energetic radiation from the central hot stars. Their powerful winds and radiation sculpt and erode the denser pillar shapes and clear out a characteristic cavity light-years across the center of the natal cloud. Stars could still be forming inside the pillars by gravitational collapse but as the pillars are eroded away, any forming stars will ultimately be cutoff from their reservoir of star stuff. This field of view spans about 40 light-years at the estimated distance of NGC 7822.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: pixels in space
Credit & Copyright: Mark Carter
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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