Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2023 Dec 05 1755 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 3.33 - Quiet
Kp= 2.67 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M2.11 - R1 Class Flare
M2.11 - R1 Class Flare
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
M2.1-Class Flare 2023-12-06
C1.13 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
1.43 protons/cm3
612km/sec Mod. Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.89 (Bt) - Normal
0.29 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 05/0644Z from Region 3513 (N19E67). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Dec, 07 Dec, 08 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 666 km/s at 05/1616Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 04/2308Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 05/0103Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 297 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Dec 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 06-Dec 08 2023 is 3.67 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 06 to Dec 08 2023
Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
Forecast High  
3.67
2.33
1.67
00-03UT 3.67 2.00 1.67
03-06UT 3.00 2.33 1.33
06-09UT 3.00 2.33 1.33
09-12UT 2.33 2.00 1.33
12-15UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
15-18UT 2.00 2.00 1.33
18-21UT 2.33 2.00 1.67
21-00UT 3.00 2.00 1.67
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2.67
3.33
3.00
3.00
2.33
3.00
2.67
2.67
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Dec 06 to Dec 08
Middle Latitudes Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
Active 20% 15% 5%
Minor Storm 5% 5% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 15% 20% 15%
Major-severe storm 10% 10% 5%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 06 to Dec 08 2023
Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Dec 05 2023 0644 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 06 to Dec 08 2023
Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec 08
Class: C-flare 99% 99% 99%
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
PCAF Updated: Tuesday, 05 Dec 2023 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: A chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class flare activity will persist through 08 Dec.

Region Flare Probabilities for Dec 06, 2023
Region Class C M X P
3500 0% 0% 0% 0%
3501 5% 1% 1% 1%
3505 5% 1% 1% 1%
3507 15% 1% 1% 1%
3508 5% 1% 1% 1%
3510 45% 10% 1% 1%
3511 25% 5% 1% 1%
3512 5% 1% 1% 1%
3513 20% 5% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Dec 04 0332 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2023 Dec 04 136 33 6 G2
2023 Dec 05 134 18 5 G1
2023 Dec 06 130 12 4
2023 Dec 07 132 8 3
2023 Dec 08 132 5 2
2023 Dec 09 132 5 2
2023 Dec 10 130 5 2
2023 Dec 11 135 5 2
2023 Dec 12 140 10 4
2023 Dec 13 140 8 3
2023 Dec 14 140 5 2
2023 Dec 15 140 5 2
2023 Dec 16 140 5 2
2023 Dec 17 150 5 2
2023 Dec 18 160 15 5 G1
2023 Dec 19 160 25 5 G1
2023 Dec 20 160 8 3
2023 Dec 21 160 5 2
2023 Dec 22 160 20 5 G1
2023 Dec 23 160 10 4
2023 Dec 24 160 5 2
2023 Dec 25 160 5 2
2023 Dec 26 160 5 2
2023 Dec 27 155 5 2
2023 Dec 28 150 5 2
2023 Dec 29 145 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C1.13 142 15 2.67

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 612 km/sec 1.43 p/cm3 Bt 3.89 nT Bz 0.41 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Energetic Particle Strikes the Earth
Energetic Particle Strikes the Earth
2023 December 5

Explanation: It was one of the most energetic particles ever known to strike the Earth -- but where did it come from? Dubbed Amaterasu after the Shinto sun goddess, this particle, as do all cosmic rays that strike the Earth's atmosphere, caused an air shower of electrons, protons, and other elementary particles to spray down onto the Earth below. In the featured illustration, a cosmic ray air shower is pictured striking the Telescope Array in Utah, USA, which recorded the Amaterasu event in 2021 May. Cosmic ray air showers are common enough that you likely have been in a particle spray yourself, although you likely wouldn't have noticed. The origin of this energetic particle, likely the nucleus of an atom, remains a mystery in two ways. First, it is not known how any single particle or atomic nucleus can practically acquire so much energy, and second, attempts to trace the particle back to where it originated did not indicate any likely potential source.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: torched by stars
Credit : Osaka Metropolitan U./L-INSIGHT, Kyoto U./Ryuunosuke Takeshige
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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