Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2021 May 02 1417 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=1 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
6.28 protons/cm3
324 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.49 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 125 Issued at 2200Z on 05 May 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 04/2209Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (06 May, 07 May, 08 May).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 May 06 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 06-May 08 2021 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 06 to May 08 2021
May 06 May 07 May 08
Forecast High  
2
2
2
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 1
06-09UT 1 1 1
09-12UT 1 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
0
1
0
1
1
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - May 06 to May 08
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 20% 20%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 06 to May 08 2021
May 06 May 07 May 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 06 to May 08 2021
May 06 May 07 May 08
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 May 03 0219 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2021 May 03 70 12 4
2021 May 04 70 12 4
2021 May 05 72 10 3
2021 May 06 72 5 2
2021 May 07 72 5 2
2021 May 08 72 5 2
2021 May 09 74 5 2
2021 May 10 74 5 2
2021 May 11 74 8 3
2021 May 12 75 12 4
2021 May 13 75 20 5 G1
2021 May 14 77 30 6 G2
2021 May 15 79 15 4
2021 May 16 79 15 4
2021 May 17 79 12 4
2021 May 18 77 5 2
2021 May 19 77 5 2
2021 May 20 77 15 4
2021 May 21 77 10 3
2021 May 22 75 5 2
2021 May 23 75 5 2
2021 May 24 75 5 2
2021 May 25 74 5 2
2021 May 26 74 5 2
2021 May 27 72 5 2
2021 May 28 70 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 70 2 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 324 km/sec 6.28 p/cm3 Bt 4.49 nT Bz 0.68 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: Sun Spots Unavailable
Error reading Sun Spots data. - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


STEVE over Copper Harbor
STEVE over Copper Harbor
2021 May 5

Explanation: What creates STEVEs? Strong Thermal Emission Velocity Enhancements (STEVEs) have likely been seen since antiquity, but only in the past five years has it been realized that their colors and shapes make them different from auroras. Seen as single bright streaks of pink and purple, the origin of STEVEs remain an active topic of research. STEVEs may be related to subauroral ion drifts (SAIDs), a supersonic river of hot atmospheric ions. For reasons currently unknown, STEVEs are frequently accompanied by green "picket-fence" auroras. The featured STEVE image is a combination of foreground and background exposures taken consecutively in mid-March from Copper Harbor, Michigan, USA. This bright STEVE lasted several minutes, spanned from horizon to horizon, and appeared in between times of normal auroras.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: open space
Credit & Copyright: MaryBeth Kiczenski
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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