Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2022 Dec 07 1106 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 3.00 - Quiet
Kp= 3.00 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
C1.29 - Active
C1.22 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C1.2 - Active 2022-12-07
B6.45 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
30.94 protons/cm3
367 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
13.31 (Bt) Moderate
0.642 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Dec, 08 Dec, 09 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 446 km/s at 05/2316Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/1620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/1107Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2254 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Dec), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (08 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (09 Dec).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Dec 07 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 07-Dec 09 2022 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 07 to Dec 09 2022
Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
Forecast High  
4.00
4.67 G1
2.67
00-03UT 1.00 4.33 2.67
03-06UT 1.33 4.67 G1 2.67
06-09UT 0.67 3.67 2.00
09-12UT 3.00 3.00 2.00
12-15UT 2.00 3.00 1.67
15-18UT 2.67 2.67 2.00
18-21UT 4.00 2.33 2.00
21-00UT 4.00 3.00 2.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1.00
1.00
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.33
0.67
3.00
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Dec 07 to Dec 09
Middle Latitudes Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
Active 30% 40% 20%
Minor Storm 10% 25% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 5% 1%
High Latitudes Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
Active 15% 5% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 20% 25%
Major-severe storm 40% 65% 30%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 08 Dec due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 07 to Dec 09 2022
Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 07 to Dec 09 2022
Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec 09
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts, and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio blackouts on 07-09 Dec.

Region Flare Probabilities for Dec 07, 2022
Region Class C M X P
3153 70% 25% 5% 1%
3155 20% 1% 1% 1%
3156 5% 1% 1% 1%
3157 15% 1% 1% 1%
3158 15% 1% 1% 1%
3159 5% 1% 1% 0%
3160 5% 1% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 Dec 05 0145 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2022 Dec 05 145 8 3
2022 Dec 06 145 5 2
2022 Dec 07 143 12 4
2022 Dec 08 143 15 4
2022 Dec 09 140 8 3
2022 Dec 10 140 5 2
2022 Dec 11 135 5 2
2022 Dec 12 130 5 2
2022 Dec 13 125 5 2
2022 Dec 14 125 5 2
2022 Dec 15 115 5 2
2022 Dec 16 110 5 2
2022 Dec 17 110 10 3
2022 Dec 18 110 10 3
2022 Dec 19 110 5 2
2022 Dec 20 115 5 2
2022 Dec 21 115 5 2
2022 Dec 22 115 20 5 G1
2022 Dec 23 120 15 4
2022 Dec 24 120 12 4
2022 Dec 25 120 20 5 G1
2022 Dec 26 120 20 5 G1
2022 Dec 27 120 20 5 G1
2022 Dec 28 120 20 5 G1
2022 Dec 29 125 12 4
2022 Dec 30 130 10 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B6.45 144 4 3.00

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 367 km/sec 30.94 p/cm3 Bt 13.31 nT Bz -12.11 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun
Sunspots last 30 days
Solar Data - Issued: Sun Spots Unavailable
Error reading Sun Spots data. - Yesterday's Sun Spots (123)

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Six Previous Cycles to date
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing 6 Previous Cycles to date
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows six Previous Cycles to date

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


NGC 7293: The Helix Nebula
NGC 7293: The Helix Nebula
2022 December 7

Explanation: A mere seven hundred light years from Earth, toward the constellation Aquarius, a sun-like star is dying. The dying star's last few thousand years have produced the Helix Nebula (NGC 7293), a well studied and nearby example of a Planetary Nebula, typical of this final phase of stellar evolution. Combining narrow band image data from emission lines of hydrogen atoms in red and oxygen atoms in blue-green hues, it shows tantalizing details of the Helix, including its bright inner region about 3 light-years across. The white dot at the Helix's center is this Planetary Nebula's hot, central star. A simple looking nebula at first glance, the Helix is now understood to have a surprisingly complex geometry.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: pixels in space
Credit & Copyright: Tommaso Stella
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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