Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2022 Jul 05 0441 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
C1.25 - Active
B7.71 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B7.0 - Normal 2022-07-06
B4.77 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
13.82 protons/cm3
332 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.48 (Bt) - Normal
0.559 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 05/1057Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 04/2322Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 04/2116Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 335 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (06 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (07 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (08 Jul).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Jul 06 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 06-Jul 08 2022 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 06 to Jul 08 2022
Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
Forecast High  
5 G1
4
3
00-03UT 1 3 3
03-06UT 1 4 2
06-09UT 2 4 3
09-12UT 2 3 2
12-15UT 3 2 2
15-18UT 4 2 2
18-21UT 5 G1 3 2
21-00UT 4 3 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jul 06 to Jul 08
Middle Latitudes Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
Active 40% 35% 25%
Minor Storm 25% 15% 10%
Major-severe storm 5% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
Active 10% 10% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 30%
Major-severe storm 65% 50% 40%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely 06 Jul due to CH HSS effects.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 06 to Jul 08 2022
Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 06 to Jul 08 2022
Jul 06 Jul 07 Jul 08
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
PCAF green

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Region Flare Probabilities for Jul 06, 2022
Region Class C M X P
3045 0% 0% 0% 0%
3046 10% 1% 1% 1%
3047 15% 5% 1% 1%
3049 5% 1% 1% 1%
3051 15% 1% 1% 1%
3052 10% 1% 1% 1%
3053 35% 10% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 Jul 04 0139 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2022 Jul 04 110 5 2
2022 Jul 05 112 8 3
2022 Jul 06 112 25 5 G1
2022 Jul 07 115 12 4
2022 Jul 08 115 8 3
2022 Jul 09 115 5 2
2022 Jul 10 115 5 2
2022 Jul 11 112 5 2
2022 Jul 12 112 5 2
2022 Jul 13 110 5 2
2022 Jul 14 108 10 3
2022 Jul 15 108 15 4
2022 Jul 16 110 12 4
2022 Jul 17 100 10 3
2022 Jul 18 95 8 3
2022 Jul 19 98 8 3
2022 Jul 20 95 8 3
2022 Jul 21 95 8 3
2022 Jul 22 98 12 4
2022 Jul 23 98 15 4
2022 Jul 24 100 10 3
2022 Jul 25 100 8 3
2022 Jul 26 102 5 2
2022 Jul 27 105 5 2
2022 Jul 28 105 5 2
2022 Jul 29 100 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B4.77 115 4 1

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 332 km/sec 13.82 p/cm3 Bt 3.48 nT Bz 0.61 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun
Sunspots last 30 days
Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 06 Jul 2022 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (92)

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Six Previous Cycles to date
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing 6 Previous Cycles to date
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows six Previous Cycles to date

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Milky Way Motion in 3D from Gaia
Milky Way Motion in 3D from Gaia
2022 July 6

Explanation: Our sky is alive with the streams of stars. The motions of 26 million Milky Way stars are evident in the featured map constructed from recent data taken by ESA's Gaia satellite. Stars colored blue are moving toward us, while red indicates away. Lines depict the motion of the stars across the sky. The large blue on the left and red areas on the map's right give the overall impression that stars in the Milky Way are rotating around the center. However, there is a region near the middle -- caused by our own Sun's motion relative to a rigidly-rotating central Galactic bar -- that seems to reverse it. Understanding details about the motion of stars is helping humanity to better understand the complex history of our Milky Way galaxy and the origin of our Sun.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: open space
Credit & License: ESA, Gaia, DPAC; Text: Ata Sarajedini (Florida Atlantic U., Astronomy Minute podcast)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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