Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2022 Jan 21 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5/1f flare (R2-Moderate
radio blackout) at 20/0601 UTC from Region 2929 (N08W88, Dao/beta).
Associated with the event were multiple radio signatures including a
10cm radio burst, a Type II radio sweep (estimated 329 km/s shock
velocity), and a Type IV radio sweep. A CME signatures was observed
following the flare which was first seen in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery
beginning after 20/0612 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the event
suggested the main body of the ejecta was oriented upstream of Earths
orbit. Other than minor decay observed in Region 2933 (S22W49, Cao/beta), the
remaining 5 spotted active regions on the visible disk exhibited no
significant changes. A DSF, approximately 12 degrees in length and centered near S10W48, was
observed around Region 2933 after20/0711. A subsequent CME signature was
observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery after 20/0848 UTC. Analysis and
modeling of the event also indicated the main body of the ejecta headed
upstream of Earth and off the Sun-Earth line. |
| Solar activity is likely to be low on 21 Jan, with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) primarily due to
the flare history of Region 2929. Over 22-23 Jan, activity should return
to very low levels as Region 2929 rotates around the western limb. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a peak
flux of 2,660 pfu at 20/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
reached S1-Minor storm levels at 20/0800 UTC following the M5/1f flare
mentioned above, with a peak flux of 22pfu observed at 20/1015 UTC. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
20-22 Jan due to CH HSS/CME influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to be below S1-Minor storm levels on 21 Jan and trend
towards background levels over 22-24 Jan. |
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| Solar wind parameters were indicative of waning CME and CH HSS influence
influence. Solar wind speeds declined from ~500 km/s to ~450 km/s by the
end of the period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 6 nT.
Bz was primarily neutral or northward. Phi angle transitioned to
predominantly negative after 19/2320 UTC. |
| An enhanced solar wind environment is anticipated throughout the
forecast period as combined CH HSS and CME effects taper on 21 Jan.
An additional enhancement is possible on 22 Jan as weak, glancing blow
effects arrive from the 18 Jan CME and continue into 23 Jan. |
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| The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with an isolated period of
unsettled observed early in the UTC day. |
| The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
21 Jan due to waning CH HSS/CME influence. Quiet to active levels are
likely late on 22 Jan and into 23 Jan as weak influence from the 18 Jan
CME may influence the near-Earth space environment. |
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