Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2021 Oct 17 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2882 (N15W91, Hsx/alpha) was quiet and stable as it rotated beyond the limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast...
Very low solar activity is expected 17-19 Oct.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background 17-19 Oct.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a weak enhancement in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength increased to 8-9 nT. Bz was primarily northward. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector in the latter half of the period.
.Forecast...
Weak enhancements in the IMF are possible on 17 Oct. A CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected cause enhanced solar wind parameters on 18-19 Oct.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18-19 Oct due to CH HSS influence.
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