Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2022 Jul 06 1230 UTC |
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| Solar activity was low, with six sunspot groups present on the visible
disk. The largest flare of the period was a C7.5/1f flare at 05/1238 UTC
from Region 3053 (N15E66, Dso/beta). The region rotated further into
view and trailer spots became visible. Region 3051 (N27E07, Cro/beta)
underwent periods of growth and decay. Region 3052 (N15E46, Cro/beta)
underwent some minor growth and gained spots. Regions 3045 (S20W41) and
3049 (S12E13) decayed to plage. NOAA/SWPC Region 3054 (N21W21, Bxo/beta)
was assigned to newly emerged bipolar spots. Remaining regions were inactive or in decay. No new CMEs were observed
on the Sun-Earth line in available imagery. |
| Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) 06-08 Jul. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist
at background levels through 08 July. |
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| Solar wind parameters were initially ambient, however, later in the
period an enhancement in the IMF took place as the total field strength
increased to 8 nT. The Bz component underwent primarily weak deviations.
Solar wind speed decreased from ~375 km/s to around 325 km/s. The phi
angle was negative until near 05/2000 UTC, when it oscillated between
sectors and eventually settled predominantly into a positive
orientation. |
| Enhancements to the solar wind environment are expected to increase on
06 Jul due to anticipated CH HSS onset. An enhanced solar wind field is
expected to continue 07-08 July. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet. |
| G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely later on 06 Jul as CH HSS onset
begins. Unsettled to active levels, with a chance for isolated G1
(Minor) storming periods, are expected 07-08 Jul as effects wane. |
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