Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2021 Oct 17 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2882 (N15W91, Hsx/alpha)
was quiet and stable as it rotated beyond the limb. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. |
| Very low solar activity is expected 17-19 Oct. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux retained background values. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected
to remain at background 17-19 Oct. |
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| Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
weak enhancement in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength increased to
8-9 nT. Bz was primarily northward. Phi angle was predominantly oriented
in the negative sector in the latter half of the period. |
| Weak enhancements in the IMF are possible on 17 Oct. A CIR ahead of a
positive polarity CH HSS is expected cause enhanced solar wind
parameters on 18-19 Oct. |
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| The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. |
| The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
17 Oct. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18-19 Oct due to CH HSS
influence. |
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