Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2023 Oct 03 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 3455 (N25E58
Cro/Beta) produced an M1.9/1N flare at 02/1246 UTC with a corresponding
eruption to the south. Region 3450 (S18E04 Eac/Beta-Gamma) remains the
most magnetically complex and produced some low-level C-flares. More
intermediate spots developed in this region. Region 3452 (N11E33
Dai/Beta) was the largest at 240 mil, but showed some consolidation in
the leader spots. A very faint CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery
around 02/1418 UTC possibly associated with dimming in GOES-16 SUVI
imagery between 02/12-13 UTC. Ill let the night shift make the call. A preliminary analysis suggested it would be moving at 260 km/s. |
| Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for more
M-class flares through 05 Oct. With the number of both regions and
filaments, an earth directed eruption is not out of the question. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 03-05 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels on 03-05 Oct. |
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| The solar wind was generally slow (350-400 km/s). Bz was southward
(approx. 0 to -5 nT) for much of the period. Density was low, which
prompted a change from DSCOVR to ACE around 02/0217 UTC. The subsequent
loss of ACE tracking around 1615 UTC forced a return to DSCOVR by 1646
UTC. The speed reported by DSCOVR was generally reasonable at the time
of writing. |
| WSA-Enlil suggest the approach of a fast solar wind stream mid-late on
the 3rd and extending into the 4th, most likely associated with the
small coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. Another coronal hole was
analyzed in the southern hemisphere and could bring enhanced conditions
on the 5th, however confidence in the coronal hole influences is low. |
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| The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. |
| The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to active levels
through 03 Oct due to anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH
HSS. Unsettled levels are expected on 04 Oct, with a possible return to
active conditions on 05 Oct if the southern hemisphere fast stream is
well connected. |
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