NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

May 6, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 6 05:40:29 UTC 2021
  | | | |  
Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 060540

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1240 AM CDT Thu May 06 2021

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be
   possible today across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
   Florida Peninsula.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley...
   An upper-level trough will move southeastward into the mid
   Mississippi Valley today as a 70 to 80 knot mid-level jet moves
   through the base of the system. At the surface, an associated cold
   front will advance southeastward into to the mid Mississippi Valley.
   Surface dewpoints may reach the lower to mid 50s F ahead of the
   front in parts of southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western
   Tennessee. In response, weak instability is expected to be in place
   by afternoon ahead of the front. Model forecasts suggest that
   convection will initiate along the front in the early afternoon with
   convection moving southeastward and gradually increasing in
   coverage. In addition to SBCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, 700
   to 500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be steep and may approach 8.0
   C/km. This along with moderate deep-layer shear may be enough for a
   marginal wind-damage and hail threat. The greatest threat should be
   concentrated near and just after peak heating.

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   An upper-level trough will move southeastward into the mid
   Mississippi Valley today as mid-level flow remains westerly across
   much of the eastern Gulf Coast. At the surface, a trough of low
   pressure should be located in the eastern part of the Florida
   Peninsula today. Surface dewpoints along the trough will be in the
   upper 60s to lower 70s F, contributing to moderate instability by
   afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, thunderstorm
   development will be possible near the trough in the eastern Florida
   Peninsula. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively
   weak, low-level lapse rates will become steep during the afternoon.
   This may be enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. Hail could
   also occur with the stronger updrafts. The potential for severe will
   be greatest in the mid to late afternoon before the convection moves
   eastward offshore.

   ..Broyles/Lyons.. 05/06/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2021 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet