NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jul 6, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 6 16:18:13 UTC 2022
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 061618

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

   Valid 061630Z - 071200Z


   Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
   northern High Plains/Rockies, central High Plains, and the Ohio
   Valley to Virginia and the Carolinas.

   ...Northern High Plains/Rockies...
   Scattered thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon off
   the higher terrain of western/southern MT into northeast WY, with a
   plume of 50s to low 60s surface dew points being maintained over the
   adjacent High Plains. The largest buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500
   J/kg will be present across parts of central to eastern MT within a
   plume of moist, low-level east-southeasterlies. Deep-layer shear
   will be weakest in the northeast WY vicinity around the north rim of
   a minor mid-level impulse drifting across the central High Plains.
   Farther northwest, weaknesses in the hodograph from 700-500 mb
   should result in more transient supercell structures and tendency
   for outflow-dominant cells to consolidate into clusters from central
   to northeast MT. A mix of large hail and severe wind gusts are
   anticipated, likely becoming more dominated by wind with time before
   convection weakens tonight.

   ...Central High Plains...
   Scattered thunderstorms will develop off the Front Range later this
   afternoon and gradually spread east across the adjacent High Plains
   during the late afternoon and early evening. With 500-mb
   temperatures around -6 C, severe potential will largely be driven by
   the degree of boundary-layer heating/moisture. Stratus has persisted
   across northeast CO and vicinity, but has gradually been eroding.
   Moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is eventually
   expected by late afternoon. Weak low-level northeasterlies beneath
   modest mid to upper-level southwesterlies will provide sufficient
   deep-layer shear for multicell clusters with embedded supercells
   consolidating into a slow-moving MCS this evening. A mix of severe
   hail and wind transitioning to mainly wind is expected before
   weakening later tonight.

   ...OH Valley to VA and the Southeast...
   At least a trio of MCVs are evident in a train from the Mid-Atlantic
   region to the Mid-MO Valley. The most substantial of which for
   severe potential is drifting east across OH with deep convection
   ongoing to its south. With peak buoyancy at present over TN/KY,
   further destabilization is expected to the south of this ongoing
   activity. Intensification and expansion of convective development
   along outflows should yield multicell clusters spreading
   east-southeast across parts of the central/upper OH Valley,
   Cumberland Plateau, and central Appalachians into early evening.
   Scattered damaging winds will be the primary threat. 

   Scattered to numerous pulse thunderstorms will likely develop
   farther south across the southern Appalachians and vicinity where
   localized downbursts producing tree damage will be the main threat.
   Thunderstorms are also anticipated farther north into VA where a
   belt of 25-35 kt 700-500 mb winds would support greater potential
   for multicell clustering and transient/low-end supercell structures.
   Primary uncertainties in this area are the degree of destabilization
   and convective coverage in the wake of a decaying MCV near the
   southeast PA/northeast MD border.

   ..Grams/Wendt.. 07/06/2022



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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