NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Feb 7, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 7 17:28:59 UTC 2023
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 071728

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night
   across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This includes the potential for
   damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and possibly some hail.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough will become negatively tilted Wednesday morning
   across the southern High Plains and move northeast to near the
   Ozarks by 06Z Thursday. A surface low will develop along a front in
   eastern Texas Wednesday morning and deepen as it moves northward
   into the Ozarks by 12Z Thursday. 

   ...Lower Mississippi Valley...
   As the surface low deepens during the day Wednesday, low-level flow
   will strengthen and advect moisture northward across the Lower
   Mississippi Valley. Mid 60s dewpoints may advect as far north as
   southern Arkansas/northern Mississippi by Wednesday evening. The
   warm sector will be mostly capped Wednesday morning, but inhibition
   is expected to erode by mid day as mid-level temperatures cool ahead
   of the advancing trough. Despite the uncapped warm sector, most CAM
   guidance has limited convection across Louisiana during the day. The
   ECMWF has more widespread convection Wednesday afternoon and seems
   like the more likely solution given the height falls and the
   uncapped warm sector by early afternoon. However, these storms may
   remain more multi-cellular and only marginally severe as warm sector
   effective shear is only expected to be 20-25 knots during the day. 

   Most guidance shows a low-level wave moving northward across the
   western Gulf tomorrow afternoon. This can be seen in both PWAT and
   850mb wind fields and appears to be the impetus for western Gulf
   convection, apparent on most guidance. As this feature moves into
   eastern Louisiana/western Mississippi Wednesday evening, expect a
   more concentrated convective risk to develop along the I-20 corridor
   from eastern Louisiana to central Mississippi. Most guidance shows
   the low-level jet strengthening from 35 to 55 knots between 23Z and
   04Z which will elongate hodographs across the warm sector. During
   this period, convergence is forecast to increase along the cold
   front and ascent associated with the mid-level trough is expected to
   overspread the warm sector. A greater tornado threat could persist
   from evening to early overnight, both from any pre-frontal
   supercells and any line embedded supercells/QLCS vorticies
   associated with the front. 

   Damaging winds will also be possible with the developing squall line
   during this period as some residual instability remains before this
   line moves east of the better instability after 06Z near the
   Alabama/Mississippi Line. Given the strong wind field, some marginal
   severe wind threat could persist into Alabama early Thursday
   morning, but limited instability should mitigate a greater threat.

   ..Bentley.. 02/07/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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