NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Oct 24, 2021 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Oct 24 17:30:28 UTC 2021
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 241730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AREA INTO A PORTION OF THE CAROLINAS
   AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with isolated wind damage are possible over
   parts of the southern and central Appalachians into the Carolinas
   and Middle Atlantic region Monday.

   ...Southern and Central Appalachians into the Carolinas and Middle
   Atlantic...

   A low-amplitude shortwave trough now moving through the central
   Plains will continue east through the Ohio Valley before reaching
   the Middle Atlantic region Monday evening. Attendant cold front will
   extend from a surface low in northern IN southwest into the lower MS
   Valley and southeast TX. This front will move east during the period
   and off the Atlantic seaboard by 12Z Tuesday. A complicating factor
   is the shortwave trough currently over the northern Gulf that will
   move northeast off the coastal Carolinas during the day. A surface
   low developing over the Gulf stream in association with this feature
   will tend to weaken the low-level pressure gradient ahead of the
   primary shortwave trough, potentially resulting in less robust
   moisture return and weaker wind profiles in the lowest 3 km. There
   remains some model differences regarding the strength of this
   offshore low and overall degree of severe threat inland with the NAM
   suggesting a more marginal threat for most areas. Nevertheless,
   dewpoints will probably increase to the mid 50s to near 60 F through
   the middle Atlantic region with low to mid 60s F possible across the
   Carolinas. However, weak mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit
   MLCAPE to generally 400-800 J/kg depending on degree of moisture
   return. 

   A forced band of low-topped convection will likely be in progress
   just west of the central and southern Appalachians with at least a
   marginal threat for locally strong wind gusts. Some diabatic warming
   of the boundary layer is expected east of the higher terrain
   coincident with modest moisture return. This may contribute to some
   intensification of the convection especially from NC into VA. Deep
   layer shear of 40+ kt will support potential for embedded bowing
   segments with isolated damaging wind the main threat during the
   afternoon into the evening.  

   ...Eastern Ohio...

   A low topped band of thunderstorms may develop along the front and
   just ahead of the vorticity maximum across eastern OH. This activity
   may be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, gusty
   winds and perhaps a brief tornado during the afternoon. Overall
   threat in this region will be conditional upon sufficient boundary
   layer destabilization, but is expected to remain marginal.

   ..Dial.. 10/24/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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