NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Jul 6, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 6 07:30:45 UTC 2022
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SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 060730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

   Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may occur Friday across
   parts of the northern Rockies/Plains.

   ...Northern Rockies/Plains...
   An upper ridge should remain prominent across much of the High
   Plains into central Canada on Friday. Strong mid-level southwesterly
   flow preceding an upper trough over the West Coast is forecast to
   overspread parts of the northern Rockies and adjacent northern
   Plains of central/eastern MT through the period. A moist low-level
   airmass should also be present along/east of surface trough
   extending across the northern High Plains. At least moderate
   instability should once again develop across much of MT and vicinity
   as daytime heating occurs. Steep mid-level lapse rates should also
   be present over the warm sector. Current expectations are for
   initially high-based convection that forms over the northern Rockies
   Friday afternoon to spread generally northeastward across
   central/eastern MT through Friday night. Deep-layer shear appears
   strong enough for supercells, with an associated threat for both
   large hail and severe wind gusts. Some upscale growth into one or
   more small bowing clusters may also occur Friday evening/night with
   eastward extent into MT. Overall coverage of thunderstorms becomes
   less clear into the Dakotas, but at least an isolated severe threat
   should exist owing to a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic
   environment.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley into the Central/Southern Appalachians and
   Southeast...
   A weak front should be draped generally west to east across these
   regions on Friday. Any appreciable severe threat will likely remain
   confined along/south of this boundary through the period. Mid-level
   west-northwesterly flow around 15-25 kt should limit deep-layer
   shear. But, some modest updraft organization may still occur as
   thunderstorms develop along/south of the front Friday afternoon.
   With multiple days of preceding convection acting to overturn the
   moist low-level airmass across these regions, it remains uncertain
   whether the moderate to strong instability forecast by most guidance
   will materialize. Have opted to include a fairly broad Marginal Risk
   for mainly damaging winds associated with multicell clusters given
   this uncertainty and the generally weak deep-layer shear forecast.
   Greater severe probabilities may be needed if a more focused
   corridor of severe/damaging wind potential becomes clearer.

   ..Gleason.. 07/06/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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