NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Feb 7, 2023 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Feb 7 08:29:44 UTC 2023
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 070829

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0229 AM CST Tue Feb 07 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday across the
   Southeast including parts of Alabama, north Florida and Georgia.

   ...Southeast States including parts of Florida/Georgia/Alabama...
   A weakening squall line or at least residual bands of convection and
   related cloud debris will likely exist across parts of Alabama and
   the Florida Panhandle Thursday morning. The brunt of the
   Midwest-centered upper trough will quickly shift away from the
   region, but steady height falls will still occur while a belt of
   strong mid/high-level southwesterly winds will tend to lag the cold
   front. This cold front should decelerate and potentially stall
   across the Southeast on Thursday, but scattered thunderstorms will
   tend to persist eastward and/or redevelop within the diurnally
   destabilizing warm sector, particularly in areas within 75-100 miles
   of the Gulf of Mexico. This is the most probable corridor for where
   isolated severe storms could occur. This could potentially include a
   few supercells/small bows capable of wind damage and a tornado risk
   across northern Florida/southern Alabama into southern Georgia.

   ...Midwest/Middle Ohio River Valley...
   A fast-northeastward-moving low-topped convective line may be
   located across Indiana/Kentucky/Ohio around sunrise Thursday
   morning. Given the extremely strong low/mid-tropospheric winds (75+
   kt at 700 mb) and modest moisture (50s F surface dewpoints),
   convectively enhanced wind gusts cannot be ruled out early in the
   day, even at a time when boundary layer stability tends to be
   maximized. This region will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks
   for potential inclusion of wind-related severe probabilities.

   ..Guyer.. 02/07/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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