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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 011735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 1 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hilda, located about 900 miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

A well-defined low pressure system located about 375 miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a small area of
showers and thunderstorms mainly to the west of the center. The
low is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or
so while continuing to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,
away from the coast of Mexico. Development is not likely by late
Monday once the system begins moving over cooler waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A low pressure system, the remnants of former Tropical Depression
Nine-E, is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms
about 1400 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula. Regeneration of this system into a tropical
depression could occur over the next couple days if the low moves
away from the suppressing influence of Hurricane Hilda located less
than 500 miles to the east. The low is forecast to move slowly
northward or northwestward today and tonight, followed by a slow
west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Hurricane Hilda (EP3/EP082021)

...HILDA HANGING ONTO 85-MPH WINDS... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...
 As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 1
 the center of Hilda was located near 14.8, -120.8
 with movement WNW at 8 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 985 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Hilda Public Advisory Number 9

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021  

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 012031
TCPEP3
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilda Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021
 
...HILDA HANGING ONTO 85-MPH WINDS...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON MONDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 120.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilda was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 120.8 West. Hilda is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward
to northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during
the next few days.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual
weakening expected to begin on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Hurricane Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021  

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 012031
TCMEP3
 
HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 120.8W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 120.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 120.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 

Hurricane Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 9

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021  

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 012033
TCDEP3
 
Hurricane Hilda Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082021
200 PM PDT Sun Aug 01 2021

Hilda has had a similar appearance all day with an elongated cloud 
pattern from southeast to northwest on satellite imagery. Recent 
microwave passes show that the center is located on the northern 
side of the central dense overcast.  The current intensity estimates 
have a very wide range from 65 to 90 kt, and with the apparent 
steady-state of the hurricane, Hilda's wind speed will stay at 75 kt 
until clearer data emerges.
 
Hilda continues moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt. The trends 
from the last advisory have continued with more interaction shown 
with new Tropical Depression 10-E to the east, leading to a weaker 
ridge and a faster northwestward turn of Hilda in a day or so. By 
midweek, Hilda should turn back to the west-northwest and westward 
later in the period under the influence of a stronger portion of 
the ridge. The new official forecast is shifted about a half a 
degree to the northeast, near the model consensus, although the 
corrected-consensus models are even farther to the right.  

With the forecast track shift, it is becoming unlikely that Hilda 
will get significantly stronger since it will move over cooler 
waters sooner.  In addition, easterly shear should increase 
tomorrow, probably leading to the start of weakening.  Guidance has 
trended downward since the last cycle, and considering the new track 
forecast moves over cooler waters faster, the latest NHC wind speed 
forecast has been lowered 5-10 kt at all time periods, and this 
still might be too high.  In about 4 days, most of the models show 
little convection remaining with Hilda due to cold water and drier 
mid-level air, so the system should transition to a remnant low by 
day 5.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 14.8N 120.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 15.8N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 16.6N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 17.6N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 18.7N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/1800Z 19.6N 127.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/1800Z 20.7N 131.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  06/1800Z 21.0N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Hurricane Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021


000
FOPZ13 KNHC 012031
PWSEP3
                                                                    
HURRICANE HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082021               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
15N 120W       50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
20N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 125W       34  2   8(10)  14(24)   4(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
15N 125W       50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)  17(31)   X(31)   X(31)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  14(21)   1(22)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    

Hurricane Hilda Graphics


Hurricane Hilda 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 20:34:22 GMT

Hurricane Hilda 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 21:22:35 GMT

Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102021)

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 1
 the center of Ten-E was located near 17.4, -111.9
 with movement WNW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 012036
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 111.9W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical 
Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 
111.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue 
for the next couple of days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening will be possible late tonight or early 
Monday, and the depression could briefly become a tropical storm. 
Weakening is expected to begin Monday night or Tuesday morning. 
A few hours ago, a wind gust to 39 mph (62 km/h) was reported on 
Socorro Island.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 012036
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102021
2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 111.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.6N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.9N 120.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 111.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 012037
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
300 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021

The well-defined low pressure system located well offshore the 
southwestern coast of Mexico that the National Hurricane Center has 
been monitoring the past few days has developed enough organized 
deep convection to be designated as a tropical depression. Although 
the convection is strongly sheared and displaced to the west of the 
slightly elongated low-level center, barely meeting the criteria for 
a tropical cyclone, a recent 1733Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass 
revealed a few 28-kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern 
quadrant. Thus, the initial intensity is set at what could be a 
generous 30 kt. Socorro Island reported a wind gust to 34 kt in a 
passing narrow band of showers around 1630 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. 
Embedded within deep-layer east-southeasterly steering flow between 
Hurricane Hilda to the west-southwest and a sprawling subtropical 
ridge to the north, the cyclone is forecast to continue moving 
west-northwestward throughout the relatively short forecast period. 
The NHC forecast track lies down the middle of the tightly packed 
simple- and corrected-consensus models.

The depression has a very narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h 
to strengthen. Moderate-to-strong northeasterly vertical wind shear 
that has been hindering development the past few days is expected to 
gradually decrease from the current 19-22 kt down to around 10-12 kt 
in 18-24 h, which could allow for some slight intensification late 
tonight and/or early Monday morning when another nocturnal burst of 
convection is likely to occur. By 36 h, however, the cyclone is 
forecast to move over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and into a 
drier and more stable air mass, which could induce rapid weakening, 
with the system degenerating into a remnant low by 48 h and 
dissipation expected by 72 h. The official intensity forecast is 
similar to but slightly above the simple- and corrected-consensus 
intensity models IVCN and HCCA, respectively.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 17.4N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.6N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/0600Z 20.9N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 012036
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1       
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102021               
2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR   
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  2  36(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 115W       34  X  12(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  

Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics


Tropical Depression Ten-E 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 20:37:43 GMT

Tropical Depression Ten-E 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 21:28:28 GMT
   
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