NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 132115
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
215 PM PDT Sat Aug 13 2022


.Synopsis...
Hot temperatures return this week with widespread triple digit
high temperatures in the Valley. Smoke from area wildfires will
continue to impact portions of interior Northern California.
Monsoonal showers will be possible around mid-week with best
chances over the Sierra.

&&

.Discussion...
Visible satellite imagery shows clear skis over Northern
California this afternoon other than an area of smoke in the
northern Coastal Range. Winds are also generally light with gusts
only to 15 mph for the breeziest locations. Similar conditions
are expected tomorrow with temperatures starting to trend up
slightly.

By Monday, ensembles are in agreement high pressure building into
the region will lead to increasing high temperatures early next
week. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for the entire
Central Valley in coordination with the Hanford weather forecast
office starting late morning on Tuesday and continuing into the
later part of the week. Moderate to high heat risk is forecast for
much of the Valley and foothills with highs ranging from 95 to
around 109 and lows in the mid 60s to upper 70s. The warmest
overnight lows will be along the thermal belts in the foothills.
The hottest high temperatures for interior Northern California
are expected in the northern Sacramento Valley.

With high pressure building west this week, monsoonal moisture is
also forecast to return to the Sierra, possibly extending into
the southern Cascades by mid-week. Thunderstorm chances have
trended lower with recent model updates, however by Tuesday
afternoon and evening the potential for isolated showers and
thunderstorms over the Sierra can not be ruled out. The best
chances will generally be to the east of the Sierra Crest.
Rainfall amounts are also not expected to be high as indicated by
forecast PWAT values that are expected to remain below 1 inch over
the mountains.

SLL

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

EFI continues to highlight a strong signature for anomalously high
daytime and overnight temperatures for much of the extended.
Ensembles indicate high pressure will linger over interior NorCal
through mid to late week, contributing to widespread moderate
heat risk with areas of high heat risk in the Valley and
foothills. The Excessive Heat Watch is in effect through Thursday
night at 10 pm PDT.

In addition to the hot temperatures, monsoonal moisture will also
be able to surge northward during this time. As a result,
isolated shower and thunderstorm chances will linger over the high
elevation Sierra on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Those
chances are trending much lower over our CWA later in the week.
Looking at the weekend, some clusters are favoring an upper level
trough off the PacNW coast that may help shift the ridge
eastward. This could bring some relief in temperatures over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR conditions are forecast to prevail throughout interior
northern California over the next 24 hours. Surface wind gusts
generally below 12 kts, except southwest 20-30 kts gusts in the
vicinity of the Delta.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday
evening for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-
Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western
Colusa County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern
Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$
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