Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KSTO 071100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
300 AM PST Wed Dec 7 2022

A brief period of dry weather is expected the next few days with
cold mornings and morning fog. Precipitation returns by the end
of the week with major mountain travel impacted expected over the


Skies have cleared out across most of interior NorCal as the low
has moved southeast of the area. Dew points are in the mid to
upper 30s across the Central Valley, and with generally light
winds, fog is looking more likely than frost. IR difference
imagery is already showing a strip of fog developing over the
eastern edge of the valley from east of Sacramento southeastward
into the San Joaquin Valley. Fog may become more extensive, and
locally dense, in this area around sunrise but will lift by mid-

Short-wave ridging today and early Thursday will bring a brief
period of dry weather. Clouds will already be increasing tonight
and this should help to keep things a bit warmer but still chilly,
but will also limit fog potential. Upper level trough then
approach the area Thursday with the trough axis pushing over the
far northern part of the area later Thursday into early Friday.

Shower chances begin Thursday afternoon in the northern part of
the area, then continue to spread south during the evening and
overnight. Better forcing will be in northern areas and that is
where we can expected the highest QPF with this system. Snow
levels will be lower in the 3000 to 4000 foot range with most of
the accumulation above 3500 feet. Generally looking at 5-10" from
I-80 north with some locally higher amounts on the higher peaks. A
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect.

Flow will become more zonal once again on Friday ahead of what
will be a stronger more impactful trough for later Friday into
Saturday. We should see a break in precip by the mid-morning
Friday into the afternoon. Warm air advection precip will develop
late Friday afternoon into the overnight. Heavier precip is
expected on Saturday with the main trough and cold front along
with strong southerly winds.


Showers Sunday as post-frontal cold upper low moves into interior
NorCal. Heavy snow continues in the Sierra Nevada early Sunday as
snow levels lower into the upper foothills. Model variations
exist with how quickly the low exits the area with lingering
showers Monday, mainly over the Sierra Nevada. Models have trended
drier through midweek under upper ridging, while NBM continues to
bring more precip into the area Wednesday. Below normal high
temperatures expected through the extended period.


VFR over interior NorCal next 24 hrs exc lcl MVFR/IFR/LIFR conds
possible in BR/FG in S Sac/N San Joaquin Vlys til 17z. Sfc wind at
or below 12 kts.


Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday
for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Shasta Lake Area /
Northern Shasta County-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.


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