NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 162051
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
151 PM PDT Mon May 16 2022

.Synopsis...
Warm and dry conditions with periods of breezy winds. Gusty north
winds Thursday and Friday will bring elevated fire weather
concerns.

&&

.Discussion...
Visible satellite imagery shows lingering high clouds over
Northern California this afternoon as weak troughing remains over
the Pacific NW. High temperatures today are forecast to be around
5-10 degrees cooler than yesterday after yesterday`s shortwave
passage. Expect mid 80s across the Valley, 70s in the foothills,
and 50s to 70s in the mountains. A slightly weaker Delta Breeze
is expected to return again tonight as surface pressure gradients
tighten as the weak troughing finally moves east.

Temperatures will quickly rise again tomorrow into Wednesday as
ensemble guidance indicates high pressure building over the
Eastern Pacific and into California. Temperatures will peak
Wednesday in the mid to upper 90s across the Valley, 80s to low
90s in the foothills, and 60s to 80s in the mountains. Northerly
winds are expected to begin increasing Wednesday night, which will
lead to overnight temperatures remaining on the warm side with 60s
across the Valley. These are resulting in moderate Heat Risk
across much of the Valley for Wednesday.

Ensemble guidance in good agreement that a trough dig south through
the Great Basin region beginning Thursday. This will slightly
tamp down temperatures to just below moderate Heat Risk. However,
the main impact will be gusty north to east winds as surface
pressure gradients tighten beginning Thursday. EFI is indicating
widespread anomalous winds across the Valley on Thursday, and NBM
4.1 suggests 60-90% probabilities of wind gusts greater than 34
kts across much of the Sacramento Valley and into the Coastal
Range. Humidities are also forecast in the single digits to teens
due to the drying north winds. These combined will bring elevated
fire weather conditions across the Sacramento Valley. -HEC

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...
As the trough continues south, Gusty north winds and dry
conditions and associated elevated fire weather concerns also
continue into Friday. The EFI continues to highlight anomalous
winds for Friday. Valley wind gusts up to 30-40 mph are possible.
As the trough moves east a ridge will build over NorCal, bringing
calmer winds and warmer temperatures into the weekend and early
next week, with Valley highs in the mid to upper 90s possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours. Generally light surface wind gusts
except local southwest up to 20-25 kts over the Delta next 24
hours and northwest 15-20 kts in the Northern San Joaquin Valley
through 03Z Tuesday.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
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