NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 1 16:46:03 UTC 2021
Aug 1, 2021 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 011645

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021

   Valid 011700Z - 021200Z

   An area delineating potential for isolated dry thunderstorms has
   been introduced for parts of northern California and southwest
   Oregon. Visible satellite shows mostly clear skies over this region,
   which should allow for strong insolation and diurnally driven
   convective development this afternoon. Peripheral lightning
   ignitions will be possible again today outside of predominately wet
   thunderstorm cores.

   Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track.
   See the discussion below for more details.

   ..Karstens.. 08/01/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0102 AM CDT Sun Aug 01 2021/

   ...Synopsis...
   Fire weather concerns will primarily be limited to northern Montana
   today as a weak upper-level impulse continues to shift northward
   through the Pacific Northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will
   continue to overspread eastern WA/OR and much of ID, and while
   wetting rainfall seems likely, a few dry lightning strikes are
   possible. Conditions will generally remain dry along much of the
   West Coast, but weak winds are expected outside of terrain-favored
   locations due to a nebulous surface pressure pattern and modest flow
   aloft.

   ...Northern Montana...
   An east-to-west pressure gradient over the northern Plains will
   continue to filter dry continental air into central MT today with RH
   values in the teens to low 20s expected. East/southeasterly winds
   are forecast to increase to near 15 mph as a diurnal mixing deepens
   through the day. Modest boundary-layer flow will limit the potential
   for critical conditions, though occasional gusts up to 20-25 mph are
   possible. ERCs remain above the 90th percentile across the region
   and will support elevated fire weather conditions.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Early morning thunderstorms will likely persist for much of the day
   across the Pacific Northwest as the upper-level impulse meanders
   north. Regional soundings show an increase in PWAT values over the
   past 24 hours due to the northward advection of deeper monsoonal
   moisture. This trend will continue and increase the potential for
   wetting rainfall - especially through northern ID where latest
   ensemble guidance shows high probability for 0.1+ inches of
   rainfall. Mostly wet thunderstorms are expected for northern
   ID/eastern WA where fuels remain dry, but a few dry lightning
   strikes are possible with the initial onset of thunderstorms and
   outside of the heavier precipitation cores. A few dry strikes are
   also possible along and immediately east of the Cascades where weak
   lift and meager instability may support a thunderstorm or two. While
   lightning strikes over dry fuels will be a concern, the threat for
   widespread dry thunderstorms appears too low to warrant highlights.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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