NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 25 19:00:03 UTC 2021
Sep 25, 2021 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 16,943 714,405 Wichita, KS...Hutchinson, KS...Derby, KS...Newton, KS...Woodward, OK...
   FNUS22 KWNS 251858

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 PM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Critical fire weather appears likely from northwestern Oklahoma into
   south-central Kansas. Above normal temperatures into the 90s F will
   support RH of 15-20% in some areas along with the expected strong
   winds. The northeastward and southwestward extent of critical
   meteorological conditions has some uncertainty. Some guidance does
   show similar conditions into northeast Kansas and the Texas
   Panhandle. Mid-level clouds are increasing and less receptive fuels
   in the Panhandle and marginal RH in northeastern Kansas will keep
   concerns elevated. The forecast remains unchanged elsewhere.

   ..Wendt.. 09/25/2021

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021/

   Across the western US, southwesterly mid-level flow will begin to
   increase ahead of a strong Pacific trough moving onshore across the
   Northwest. To the south, a cutoff low will move eastward, rejoining
   broad westerly flow across the Southwest. At the surface, a lee low
   will move southeastward across the central Plains, trailing a weak
   cold front. Dry and windy conditions are expected ahead of the low
   through much of the southern Plains and across the Great Basin where
   fuels are dry.

   ...Southern Plains...
   As the previously mentioned lee low develops and moves southeastward
   across the Plains early Sunday, increasing surface pressure
   gradients will bolster low-level southwesterly flow across portions
   of the southern Plains. Aided by the development of a low-level jet,
   widespread surface winds of 20-25 mph are expected with higher gusts
   possible nearer the low in eastern Kansas. Model soundings show a
   dry airmass in place with surface RH below 20% likely across western
   Oklahoma and portions of the Texas Panhandle. Increasing cloud cover
   and greater surface moisture in eastern Kansas will favor slightly
   higher humidity values generally below 30%. With regional fuels near
   the 80th percentile of dryness, widespread elevated to locally
   critical fire weather conditions appear likely. More widespread
   critical conditions may develop should the corridor of stronger
   winds become better aligned with drier surface conditions across
   portions of Oklahoma and Texas.

   ...Northern Great Basin...
   As southwesterly flow from the approaching Pacific trough begins to
   spread inland, low-level winds are projected to increase to near
   15-20 mph across portions of northern California and northwestern
   Nevada. Here, persistent warm and dry conditions with surface RH
   below 15%, along with mostly dry fuels will support elevated fire
   weather conditions through the afternoon.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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