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Central Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

This product is updated four times daily from June through November. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.

Central Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Central Pacific Data and Image courtesy of Central Pacific Hurricane Center






Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241707
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 24 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Newton, located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Summary for Tropical Depression Newton (EP5/EP152022)

...NEWTON WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Sep 24
 the center of Newton was located near 19.4, -113.9
 with movement W at 9 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tropical Depression Newton Public Advisory Number 13

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 242045
TCPEP5
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Newton Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
...NEWTON WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 113.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Newton
was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 113.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A
westward motion is expected through today followed by a gradual
turn to the west-southwest and southwest on Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening if forecast, and Newton is expected to degenerate 
to a remnant low pressure area tomorrow.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Advisory Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022  

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 242045
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.9W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 113.9W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 113.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 113.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 

Tropical Depression Newton Forecast Discussion Number 13

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022  

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 242046
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Depression Newton Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152022
300 PM MDT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
Visible satellite imagery show Newton is reduced to a low-level
swirl devoid of deep convection.  Satellite Dvorak estimates suggest
the intensity is between 25-30 kt.  Therefore, the initial intensity
has been lowered to 30 kt, and Newton is now a tropical depression.
 
It remains to be seen if Newton is able to develop new central
convection as it moves over a oceanic thermal ridge with warmer sea
surface temperatures.  Environmental conditions are not expected to
improve along the forecast track, however, and global models suggest
Newton will gradually spin down.  The NHC intensity is slightly
lower than the previous advisory and now shows the depression as a
remnant low in 24 hours.  However, given the current satellite
presentation, this could occur sooner.
 
The depression is moving just north of west at 8 kt.  The shallow
circulation is expected to move westward in the low-level wind flow
for the next day.  This is followed by a gradual turn to the
west-southwest and southwest until the end of the forecast period.
The current forecast track is largely an update of the previous
advisory prediction with only minor adjustments.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 19.4N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/0600Z 18.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/0600Z 15.9N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci
 

Tropical Depression Newton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022


000
FOPZ15 KNHC 242045
PWSEP5
                                                                    
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152022               
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEWTON WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 115W       34 12   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BUCCI                                                    

Tropical Depression Newton Graphics


Tropical Depression Newton 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 20:48:07 GMT

Tropical Depression Newton 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Sep 2022 21:47:46 GMT




Images and Forecasts Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center,
Script by SE Lincoln Weather.

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