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000
FXUS66 KSTO 060950
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
250 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.Synopsis...
Warm and dry weather will continue this week with high
temperatures remaining below average. Heat will return by early
next week as high pressure strengthens.

&&

.Discussion...
Skies have cleared out across much of interior NorCal as shower
and thunderstorm activity has lifted north into the PacNW with the
stronger short-wave trough. However, IR difference imagery is
showing some lingering clouds across the northern mountains and
northern Sierra. Surface pressure gradients have begun to trend
toward increased onshore, and much of the Delta Breeze influenced
areas are seeing current temperatures running around 3 to 7
degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago.

Stratus has returned to the coast and profiler data indicate a
deep marine layer above 3k ft. This in itself, coupled with the
increasing onshore gradient, would be quite positive for seeing
stratus extend into the Sacramento region early this morning, but
dew points are running around 3 to 5 degrees lower compared to
early Tuesday (and temp/dew point spreads remain wide), so we`ll
have to see how it pans out.

IR satellite imagery again shows a waning heat signature from the
Electra Fire as RH`s are currently around 75 to 90 percent and
winds generally light (currently light northerly over the ridges).
Westerly breezes will pick up again this afternoon similar to
Tuesday.

Ensembles keep the main trough off the PacNW coast today before
weakening and lifting it out to the north on Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will remain below average today, but will be several
degrees warmer compared to Tuesday outside of the Delta Breeze
influenced areas. Several degrees of warming are then expected
each day heading into the weekend as high pressure builds and
onshore flow wanes.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Ensembles show upper level ridging building in from the Desert
Southwest early next week leading to a warming trend. Highs will
return to around 100-105 across the warmest portions of the
Central Valley (northern Sacramento Valley), though long-wave
troughing just off the coast may provide enough of a Delta Breeze
to keep Sacramento area highs under the century mark, and to give
overnight cooling to influenced areas. Pattern could be favorable
for importing elevated moisture/instability northward, so we`ll
have to keep an eye for potential return of diurnal thunderstorms
over the Sierra to the south of Tahoe.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours except
localized MVFR/IFR conditions in the Delta and at Sacramento
terminals 12-16z. Surface winds S/SW in the Sacramento Valley and
N/NE in the northern San Joaquin Valley generally under 12 kts
with local gusts up to 18-23 kts 18z Wednesday - 03z Thursday.
Stronger westerly gusts up to 25-30 kts in the Delta next 24
hours.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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