NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jun 27 - Jul 01, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jun 29 - Jul 05, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jun 21, 2018


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 21 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 01, 2018 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA  
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD, MODELS DEPICT TROUGHS OVER THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, AND OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK RIDGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT
BLEND FOR THE FIVE DAY PERIOD, BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LATEST ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF, DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MOST OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AS A PREDICTED
TROUGH PUSHES INLAND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ELSEWHERE FOR ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. A PERSISTENT STORM SYSTEM PREDICTED OVER ALASKA DURING A PORTION OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANTICIPATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AS A FORECAST SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THESE REGIONS. RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MOIST FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND DUE TO AN ANTICIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AND TOOL AGREEMENT. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 05, 2018 BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 500-HPA PATTERN WILL RETROGRADE A BIT, WITH HEIGHTS REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE U.S. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS, UNDER ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NO LONGER FAVORED FOR PARTS OF ALASKA DUE TO THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN PREDICTED HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA BY THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA LEADS TO SLIGHTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND ASSOCIATED NORTHERLY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW FAVOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FARTHER TO THE EAST FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EAST OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING LEADS TO FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS WELL AS ANALOGS FROM THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND GENERALLY FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ALSO DEPICTED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION, SOUTH OF THE MEAN 500-HPA RIDGE AXIS FORECAST BY THE 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AND TOOL AGREEMENT. FORECASTER: MIKE C NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON JULY 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980702 - 19750703 - 20060611 - 19770616 - 19870629
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19980702 - 20060612 - 19750704 - 19770615 - 20020611 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 01, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N B NEVADA A N W MONTANA B B E MONTANA B A WYOMING N N UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A N AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 05, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N N AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N N LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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