NWS Climate Prediction Center



Click on product title to go to product page. Move cursor over product parameter name to display the graphic -- click to enlarge.
 
 
 
 
 
Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Apr 26 - 30, 2018 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Apr 28 - May 04, 2018 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Apr 20, 2018


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 20 2018 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - 30 2018 
 
TODAY'S VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 6-10 DAY  
PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TROUGHS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS,  
NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST, AND OVER THE EASTEARN CONUS, WHILE ANOMALOUS RIDGING  
IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. TODAY'S MANUAL 500-HPA BLEND IS BASED  
PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE CANADIAN, EUROPEAN, AND GEFS MODEL  
SUITES. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND  
CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF ALASKA  
AND THE EASTERN CONUS.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE  
CONUS, WHERE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED. TROUGHING NEAR THE  
EAST COAST LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXCEPT FOR MAINE WHERE ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF  
SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT  
WITH REFORECAST-CALIBRATED GEFS AND ECMWF TOOLS.  
 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN  
CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF  
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA,  
ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO, AND WESTERN TEXAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN 500-HPA  
TROUGH PREDICTED TO PROGRESS TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. A PREDICTED MEAN 500-HPA
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST ENHANCES PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. SEVERAL PREDICTED STORM SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 04, 2018 TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WEST COAST AND OVER THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE CONUS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF MAINE AND CALIFORNIA WHERE BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THE NORTHEAST WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED. THE TEMPERATURE PROBABILITY FORECAST FOR ALASKA DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR WASHINGTON AND THE EASTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN 500-HPA TROUGH PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST. SEVERAL PREDICTED STORM SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF ALASKA. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS. FORECASTER: LUKE H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19990411 - 19750427 - 19790408 - 20090412 - 19910331
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19790409 - 19990411 - 20090412 - 19750427 - 20070501 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 26 - 30 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS B B W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA N B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N N VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A MASS N A CONN N N RHODE IS N A PENN B B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR APR 28 - MAY 04, 2018 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A N NRN CALIF A A SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN N N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN N N INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK B B VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
     Maps Compliments of National Weather Service
powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Contact Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2018 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet