NWS Climate Prediction Center



Click on product title to go to product page. Move cursor over product parameter name to display the graphic -- click to enlarge.
 
 
 
 
 
Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Feb 25 - Mar 01, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 27 - Mar 05, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 19, 2019


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EST TUE FEBRUARY 19 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2019 
 
THE CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE  
LONGWAVE 500-HPA PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THESE ENSEMBLE  
MEANS FEATURE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA DURING  
THIS 5-DAY PERIOD WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE, POSITIVELY-TILTED, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST TO THE INTERIOR WEST. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE  
IS FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE MANUAL, 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS  
BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES. BELOW  
NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, THE INTERIOR  
WEST, THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS  
ARE FORECAST FOR MAINLAND ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AS WELL AS FROM THE  
GULF COAST OF THE CONUS, ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.     
 
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED  
IN WESTERN CANADA ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN AN ANOMALOUSLY COLD PATTERN ACROSS  
MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO  
FAVORED TO EXTEND EASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME BUT WITH  
RELATIVELY LOWER CONFIDENCE. THE HIGHEST ODDS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
(GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT  
PLAINS DUE TO EXCELLENT DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOL AGREEMENT. THE SOUTHERN  
EXTENT OF THE ANOMALOUS COLD IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT TELECONNECTIONS UPON  
THE LARGE POSITIVE 500-HPA CENTER OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA FAVOR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE  
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO  
FAVORED FOR MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS RIDGING AND  
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. HOWEVER,  
THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE  
ALASKA PANHANDLE UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS NORTHEASTERLY 500-HPA FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF  
THE RIDGE AXIS.  
 
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH  
AXIS ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES  
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED FOR PARTS  
OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION NEAR A POTENTIAL MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND UPSLOPE FLOW TILT THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW NORMAL  
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF WEAK  
RIDGING OFF THE COAST. STRONG RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE FLOW LEAD TO  
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF  
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. CONVERSELY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION  
IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA UNDERNEATH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE  
TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA. THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 10% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2019 THE ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE 500-HPA RIDGE OVER MUCH OF ALASKA DURING WEEK-2 WITH AN EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH DOWNSTREAM ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, LOW AMPLITUDE PACIFIC FLOW IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE ALASKA RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS (ALTHOUGH MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY ARE RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THIS REGION). THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODELS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS). BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND THE WEST COAST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING WEEK-2 UNDERNEATH A MEAN ANOMALOUS TROUGH. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL
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
TROUGH OVER EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AS WELL AS UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE EXTENT OF UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. FORECASTER: SCOTT H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 21.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20010208 - 19850303 - 20060218 - 20090213 - 19530301
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 20010209 - 20060218 - 19850303 - 20090213 - 19530301 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 25 - MAR 01, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B B W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B B MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN B A ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR FEB 27 - MAR 05, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B B NEVADA B B W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N UTAH B B ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B N INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B A VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B B LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
     Maps Compliments of National Weather Service
powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Contact Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2019 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet