NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Jul 29 - Aug 02, 2019 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Jul 31 - Aug 06, 2019 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Jul 23, 2019


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EDT Tue July 23 2019 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 29 - AUG 02, 2019 
 
The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means maintain an amplified pattern at the higher  
latitudes of North America with an upper-level trough (ridge) over western (far  
eastern) Canada. A broad subtropical ridge covers the mid-latitudes of the  
CONUS with a continued weakness in this ridge across the Gulf Coast States. The  
amplified upper-level ridge over eastern North America favors above normal  
temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. although near normal temperatures are  
more likely across parts of the Southeast due to a weakness in the subtropical  
ridge. The expanding subtropical ridge increases chances for above normal temperatures across most of the western and central CONUS although probabilities taper off to the north due to a transient shortwave trough early in the period. Below normal temperatures are most likely across parts of the northwestern U.S. and eastern mainland Alaska due to the close proximity of the amplified upper-level trough over western Canada. Above normal sea surface temperatures continue to support increased chances for above normal temperatures along coastal areas of Alaska. On days 6 and 7, a cold front is forecast to progress east across the central U.S. which elevates the odds for above normal precipitation from the Great Lakes south to the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. This front is expected to weaken as it advances east of the Appalachians. Therefore, below normal precipitation remains favored for parts of the southern mid-Atlantic and Southeast. This favored area for below average precipitation extends south to the Florida Panhandle since deeper moisture is forecast to be located farther to the south across the Gulf of Mexico. An easterly wave tilts the odds to above normal precipitation for south Florida and parts of the western Gulf Coast. Following a brief lull in the monsoon, the 6Z GFS and 0Z ECMWF ensemble means indicate the 500-hPa ridge shifting back to a favorable position over the Four Corners region as early as day 8. Therefore, the area for increased chances of above normal precipitation is expanded from yesterday to include more of the southwestern U.S. The trough aloft continues to favor above normal precipitation for much of mainland Alaska into the beginning of August. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out of 5, due to good agreement in the predicted 500-hPa longwave pattern among the ensemble means. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 31 - AUG 06, 2019 The model solutions have diverged slightly today with how the amplified upper-level trough over western North America evolves during Week-2. The Canadian ensemble mean is most bullish with amplifying an upper-level trough south into the Pacific Northwest, but this solution is an outlier. Based on good continuity, the 0Z ECMWF ensemble mean is preferred with its depiction of negative 500-hPa height anomalies remaining north of the U.S.-Canadian border. Overall, this solution has support from the GFS ensemble means. Given that the manual 500-hPa blend indicates above normal heights throughout much of the CONUS, above normal temperatures are favored for a majority of the lower 48. Probabilities for above normal temperatures are highest across the Northeast due to the likelihood of anomalous warmth leading into Week-2. Based on a weakness in the subtropical ridge and anomalously high soil moisture, near normal temperatures are favored for the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. The highest confidence in the precipitation outlook exists across the southwestern U.S. where the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means remain consistent that the 500-hPa ridge becomes centered over the Four Corners region by the beginning of August. This is a favorable location for enhanced rainfall, associated with monsoon flow, across the southwestern U.S. Week-2 precipitation amounts from the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble means indicate locally more than 2 inches across parts of this region. In addition, additional tropical cyclone (TC) development remains likely across the East Pacific due to a very strong atmospheric Kelvin wave crossing this region. Any TC in the East Pacific, that eventually takes a more northwest track during the next two weeks, could lead to a surge of moisture north from the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, above normal precipitation is slightly favored along and to the east of the Mississippi River due to the expectation of a transient shortwave trough and associated front at the beginning of Week-2. Precipitation tools generally agree that sea breeze convection will be slightly enhanced across south Florida. Below normal precipitation is favored across much of the central and southern Great Plains northwest to the northern Rockies due to the the building ridge aloft. The couplet of a mean upper-level ridge over the Aleutains and a downstream upper-level trough, albeit fairly weak, across southeast mainland Alaska continues into Week-2. This upper-level trough results in a slight tilt in the odds for above normal precipitation across most of mainland Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle. A larger coverage of increased chances for above normal temperatures across mainland Alaska, compared to yesterday, is consistent with an increase in 500-hPa heights in today's manual blend. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 60% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement among the ensemble means offset by large uncertainty in the precipitation outlook with the exception of the southwestern U.S. FORECASTER: Brad Pugh Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1981-2010 base period means for temperature...precipitation...and 500-hpa heights as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on August 15. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 19600711 - 19670713 - 19890716 - 20040804 - 19980801 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 19890715 - 19980801 - 20040805 - 19540704 - 19670712 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 29 - Aug 02, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A B NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A A VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 31 - Aug 06, 2019 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A B MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A N PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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