NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Feb 13 - 17, 2023 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Feb 15 - 21, 2023 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Feb 07, 2023


Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 
300 PM EST Tue February 07 2023 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 13 - 17 2023 
 
Today's model solutions are in good agreement in depicting an amplified 500-hPa  
flow pattern across North America and surrounding regions during the 6-10 day  
period. The period begins with a pair of anomalous troughs located over  
southeastern Alaska and the southwestern CONUS, respectively. As time  
progresses, the Alaska trough is forecast to dive southeastward, and reinforce  
the troughing over the western CONUS.  Downstream of these troughs, models are  
in good agreement in forecasting increased ridging over the eastern CONUS. This  
ridge is generally forecast to be at its peak during the early and middle parts  
of the period. Thereafter, toward day 10, this ridge is forecast to weaken as a  
trough pushes eastward from the western CONUS to the Plains and Great Lakes.  
Overall, the mean 500-hPa pattern features below normal heights across most of  
Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, as well as the western CONUS. Above normal  
heights are most likely for the eastern CONUS, from the Mississippi Valley to  
the East Coast, as well as for the Aleutians and coastal areas of southwestern  
Mainland Alaska. 
 
Persistent anomalous troughing favors below normal temperatures across the  
western CONUS. With models generally agreeing on an amplified solution,  
probabilities of below normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for parts of the  
Southwest and Great Basin. Mean troughing is also evident across Alaska, with  
increased probabilities of below normal temperatures encompassing most of the  
Mainland and the Alaska Peninsula. Probabilities of below normal temperatures  
exceed 70 percent for the southwestern Mainland in anticipation of anomalous  
northerly mid-level flow. Conversely, chances of above normal temperatures are  
increased from the Plains to the East Coast. Chances of above normal  
temperatures exceed 80 percent for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as models  
agree on strong mean ridging across these regions. 
 
With mean troughing predicted over western CONUS, and ridging predicted across  
the East, an enhanced baroclinic zone is expected to set up across much of the  
CONUS.  Therefore, increased chances of above normal precipitation are indicated for most of the CONUS. Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 60 percent for portions of the Central and Southern Plains, and the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley, due to the potential for multiple episodes of increased Gulf of Mexico moisture advection.  As the mean trough pushes inland over the Western CONUS, a drying trend is favored behind it along the West Coast, leading to a slight tilt toward below normal precipitation for parts of California. Below normal precipitation is also favored for the southern Florida Peninsula due to predicted anomalous ridging. Conversely, a tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for southeastern Alaska ahead of mean 500-hPa troughing centered over the central Mainland. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for the northwestern Mainland, downstream of a ridge forecast over the Bering Sea. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 5% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 8, 30% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 10% of Today's operational 0z ECMWF centered on Day 8, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to model agreement on an amplified 500-hPa pattern across much of the forecast domain. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 15 - 21 2023 During the week-2 period, an amplified 500-hPa flow pattern is forecast to persist. Strong ridging is predicted across the eastern Pacific, centered to the south of the eastern Aleutians. A northward extension of this ridge is forecast to build over the Bering Sea, allowing for increased downstream northerly flow to affect much of Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle. Downstream, mean cyclonic flow is forecast over most of the CONUS. A strong trough is forecast over the western CONUS early in the period, and then predicted to lift northeastward and weaken. The GEFS then forecasts a reinforcing trough to develop across the western CONUS later in the period. The ECMWF ensemble mean is generally weaker with this reinforcing trough while the Canadian ensemble mean forecasts a fairly strong reinforcing trough, but displaced farther to the east across the Northern Plains. Mean ridging is forecast by all ensemble means across the southeastern CONUS. The resulting mean pattern features above normal heights over the eastern CONUS and much of Alaska, with below normal heights favored for the western and north-central CONUS and parts of the Alaska Panhandle. Mean troughing leads to increased chances of below normal temperatures across the western CONUS from the High Plains to the West Coast. Probabilities of below normal temperatures exceed 70 percent for parts of the Great Basin where a cold air mass is likely for the duration of the week-2 period. Conversely, above normal temperatures are most likely across the eastern CONUS, from the Mississippi Valley to the Eastern Seaboard, due to predicted anomalous ridging. Enhanced below normal temperature probabilities are indicated for much of Alaska, due to anomalous northerly mid-level flow forecast over the Mainland and the Panhandle. Due to the predicted large scale cyclonic flow and increased temperature gradients, most of the CONUS is favored to have above normal precipitation. An active pattern is likely across the east-central CONUS in association with a predicted enhanced baroclinic zone and increased moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico. The highest odds of above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) are indicated for parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, where enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico is most likely. However, there is fairly large uncertainty as to how strong this advection will be due to the potential for ridge development over the Southeast and along the immediate Gulf Coast. Near to below normal precipitation is favored for the coastal Southeast, as well as along the immediate Gulf Coast and parts of the Southern Plains, due to this potential ridge development. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for the Alaska Panhandle, associated with a transient trough forecast early in week-2.  A tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for parts of southwestern Alaska, downstream of predicted ridging over the Bering Sea. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 30% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 5% of Today's operational 6z GFS centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 25% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement on an amplified mean pattern, offset by increasing model differences later in week-2. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: Automated forecasts are issued on Saturday and Sunday. Occasionally manual intervention is necessary to address quality control and consistency issues. In these cases, forecasts are manually drawn but a full discussion is not issued. The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "N"). Historical average values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "f").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (unshaded, "n"). Historical median values for the calendar period of the forecast (dashes, "inches").  Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on February 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20020215 - 19760214 - 19890118 - 20020210 - 19900203 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20020215 - 19760214 - 19890119 - 20020210 - 19900206 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 13 - 17 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B B SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B B AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Feb 15 - 21 2023 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF B N SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N B W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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