NWS Climate Prediction Center



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Latest 6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

Prognostic Discussions


Valid: Aug 28 - Sep 01, 2017 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Aug 30 - Sep 05, 2017 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Aug 22, 2017


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS 
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD 
300 PM EDT TUE AUGUST 22 2017 
 
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2017 
 
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED  
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN FOR NORTH AMERICA. AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN FOR THIS  
TIME OF YEAR IS PREDICTED WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND  
TROUGHS ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS  
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS  
(INCLUDING THE DETERMINISTIC 0Z ECMWF AND 6Z GFS) ALSO BRING SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY TOWARD THE  
WESTERN GULF COAST REGION. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS MODERATE OVER MUCH OF THE  
FORECAST DOMAIN BUT HIGH OVER THE GREAT LEAKS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOST  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATE BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND MUCH  
OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR THE WESTERN CONUS.  
 
RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE  
WESTERN CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FAR TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, LEADING TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH OF THE EXPECTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE THE GULF COAST REGION EXTENDING NORTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY DUE TO THE TROUGH, ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND AND POTENTIAL INFLUXES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TILTS THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. RIDGING LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH EXPECTED OVER ALASKA TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7, 5% OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 8, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2017 DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, A TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND A RIDGE IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A TROUGH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
CONUS CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA, WHILE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES RESTRICTED TO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ELEVATE CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. RIDGING LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. A MEAN TROUGH TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM THE GULF COAST REGION TO THE NORTHEAST. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO POTENTIAL ADVECTION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10, 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 5% OF YESTERDAY'S 12Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. FORECASTER: SCOTT H NOTES: AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N") HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES").  LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).  PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%. IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS.  IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS. THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON SEPTEMBER 21
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530812 - 19580905 - 19660902 - 19800903 - 19910802
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19530812 - 19580904 - 19800902 - 19910801 - 19660901 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 28 - SEP 01, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA N B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N N INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N VERMONT B B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B MASS N B CONN B N RHODE IS N N PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N B AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR AUG 30 - SEP 05, 2017 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A B NEVADA A A W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO N N NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N B S DAKOTA N B NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B N N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B N MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B N ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS A A PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B A N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$
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