PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS, MD
300 PM EST THU MARCH 11 2010
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 21 2010
TODAY"S MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY'S MODELS SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH A LARGE
CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS INDICATED, TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE PREDICTING A RIDGE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC TO EXTEND TO ALASKA, WITH A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
CONUS. THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE LESS AMPLIFIED AS COMPARED WITH GFS AND
CANADIAN MEANS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS GENERALLY REFLECT THE SAME
FEATURES AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND MAP SHOWS
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THE GREAT LAKES;
WHILE BELOW NORMAL 500 HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS EXPECTED 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN SUPPORTS ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST, WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE
SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC. MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS INDICATE
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS
EXCEPT FOR PART OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...25 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...25
PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8.
MODEL OF THE DAY: THE 00Z AND 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS TIED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF 1
TO 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 25 2010
TODAY"S MODELS SOLUTIONS FOR MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHTS DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAY'S MODELS SOLUTIONS. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE PREDICTING A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS, AND A RIDGE OVER THE
ALASKA. THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIE OVER THE CONUS IS REVERSED AS COMPARED WITH
YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND MAP SHOWS NEAR NORMAL
TO BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS; WHILE ABOVE NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER ONE THIRD OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS EXPECTED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERNS SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC, THE NORTHEAST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES,
WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS. ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. MOST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS INDICATE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN
PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF: 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
OPERATIONAL 0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11...40 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...10
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...5 PERCENT OF
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S
0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT AND CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY.
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OTHERWISE -
FORECASTS INCORPORATE FORECASTER INPUT.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
MARCH 18
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660225 - 19770305 - 19990314 - 19990325 - 20010301
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19770305 - 19990313 - 19850322 - 19840222 - 19710311
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 17 - 21 2010
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N B COLORADO N B
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A B AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 19 - 25 2010
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B B IDAHO B N NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N
UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B N
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A B
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A B AK PNHDL N B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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