NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 072148
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
148 PM PST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather this week with chilly nights, near to slightly
above normal high temperatures, and areas of Valley fog. Light
precipitation possible Friday into Saturday, and again early next
week. Breezy northerly winds later this weekend into Monday.

&&

.Discussion...
Latest GOES-West visible satellite imagery shows a band of clouds
moving across interior northern California early this afternoon.
These clouds are associated with a shortwave trough that is
passing over the Pacific Northwest today. The upper level ridging
will flatten a little bit today as this shortwave passes to our
north, but the ridging will build back in on Wednesday and
Thursday. This band of clouds is expected to move out of the area
later this afternoon. Some clearing skies and light winds will
allow for the potential for fog development Wednesday morning.
HREF probabilities show about 50 to 80 percent probability for
less than a half mile visibility from Oroville southward. The HRRR
is also highlighting dense fog from about the Sacramento area
southward. With the increasing confidence in the return of dense
fog, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued from 2 AM to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for portions of the southern Sacramento Valley,
Carquinez Straight and Delta, and northern San Joaquin Valley.
Motorists should drive slow and use low- beam headlights when fog
is encountered.

Relatively quiet weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, with
some chilly overnight temperatures, near to slightly above normal
daytime temperatures, and generally light winds. Daytime high
temperatures in the Valley are expected to be in the 60s both
days. An upper level trough will approach the area on Friday,
bringing along chances for light precipitation Friday and
Saturday. At this point, minimal impacts are expected, as this
system does not have much moisture associated with it. The
National Blend of Models (NBM) has about a 10 to 25 percent
probability of observing a tenth of an inch of precipitation or
greater, mainly confined to the higher elevations of the foothills
and mountains. Snow probabilities range from 25 to 50 percent
chance of observing greater than an inch of snow in the mountains.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Ensemble guidance is in agreement for the upper level low to push
southward across California over the weekend and into early next
week. Minimal impacts are expected with this trough besides some
light precipitation and breezy north to east winds. Some lingering
showers will be possible on Saturday as the weak weather system
moves through the area. Dry weather returns Sunday and into Monday
as ridging builds back in behind it. The Extreme Forecast Index
(EFI) highlights increased wind speeds and wind gusts over the
Sacramento Valley and Sierra Nevada later this weekend and into
Monday behind the passage of this system. An additional shortwave
trough early next week will bring chances for light precipitation
late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light and variable winds expected across the region through at
least Wednesday. Periods of SCT to BKN mid to high clouds aoa 12
Kft through 03-05Z Wednesday, then a brief period of mostly clear
skies tonight. MVFR to LIFR conditions possible for TAF sites from
the Sacramento Area to KMOD where fog development is likely
between 11Z-17Z Wednesday.

//Peters

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 10 AM PST Wednesday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$
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