NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 260955
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
155 AM PST Fri Feb 26 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry weather expected through the weekend. Breezy north
to east winds return Saturday into Sunday morning. Unsettled
weather may return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Dry northerly flow will persist on today generally between 5 and
15 mph. Some cooler air will be moving into the region as well,
most noticeably over the north and in the mountains.

On Saturday another low pressure area moves into the Great Basin
that will result in breezy to windy conditions over the interior
once again. Cooler air will continue to move into the region on
Saturday continuing the cooling trend. Wind gusts will generally
be between 25 and 35 mph from late Saturday morning through the
afternoon for the valley. Wind advisory is not anticipated for the
whole valley but the Southern Sacramento and Northern San Joaquin
valley`s may become close to a low end event with the sustained
winds nearing 25 mph at times in the afternoon.

Breezy conditions may continue into Sunday morning before
subsiding. Temperatures will be warmer with a ridge of high
pressure building over the region.

Models are in good agreement through Sunday. Monday begins the
day of uncertainty with models diverging indicating either ridge
or trough over the region. Have continued to leave some chances in
the forecast over the north end of the valley and mountains but
confidence remains low at this time.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...

Tuesday is looking like a dry day for the region then some
uncertainty starts to crop back into the forecast due to Monday`s
uncertainties in the models. Wednesday continues to look mainly
dry but some showers may pop up over the Sierra Nevada if the GFS
solution works out but GEFS is keeping that time period dry for
now. The next best chance where the models are in fair agreement
will be Friday night and Saturday for a possible decent rain
event.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local northerly surface wind gusts
15-20 kts Central Valley 20Z-02Z Saturday.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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