NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 182108
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
208 PM PDT Mon Mar 18 2024


.Synopsis...
Warm and dry weather through most of this week. Widespread rain
and high-elevation snow along with cooler weather returns by the
end of the week.

&&

.Discussion...

Mostly clear skies this afternoon, with a ridge of high pressure
dominating the pattern aloft. Besides some towering cumulus along
the south-central Sierra and some thin high clouds through this
afternoon, expect mostly clear skies. Winds will remain mostly
light as well through tomorrow.

Dry and unseasonably mild weather will continue through at least
Wednesday this week as the strong blocking ridge over the PacNW
and NorCal gradually weakens throughout the week. In addition to
bringing warm weather, the high will likely suppress deep
convection over NorCal. Highs will continue to be around 5-15
degrees above average on Tuesday.

The ridge is forecast to weaken beginning mid-week allowing a
return of temperatures closer to average the second half of the
week. A few late-day showers may be possible over the northern
mountains Wednesday and Thursday, but more widespread
precipitation chances will likely hold off until the end of the
week.
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)...

An upper level trough pattern takes shape late week into the
weekend, bringing widespread precipitation chances Friday through
Sunday. WPC guidance indicates 0.40-1.5" of precipitation in the
Valley, with 1-3.5" inches over the foothills and mountains Friday
through early Monday morning. The heaviest precipitation is
expected late Friday. Snow levels begin around 6000-7000 feet
Friday, lowering to 3500 to 4500 feet over the weekend. NBM shows
a 50-70% probability of at least 12 inches of snow over the
Sierra above 6000 feet. Snow accumulations of 1-2 feet are
possible above 6000 feet, with 3-10 inches down to around 5000
feet. Latest NBM advertises a 10-25% probability of thunderstorm
development in the Valley and foothills on Saturday. Lingering
mountain showers are possible through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs with
light, variable winds mainly below 12 kts. &&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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