Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2024 Apr 27 1230 UTC |
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| Solar activity declined to low levels this period with only C-class
flare activity observed. Region 3654 (S08W16, Ehi/beta-gamma) remained
the largest region on the disk and exhibited moderate development in the
intermediate and trailer spots. Region 3657 (S15W25, Bxo/beta) reemerged
with a few rudimentary spots and new Region 3660 (N10E71, Axx/alpha) was
numbered. The remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery. |
| Solar activity is expected to be at low levels over 27-29 Apr with a
chance for M-class flare (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity. |
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| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. |
| The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 27-29 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels over 27-29 Apr. |
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| The solar wind environment was enhanced due to likely CME activity early
in the period, followed by the onset of positive polarity CH HSS
influences. Total field strength reached a peak of 17 nT and the Bz
component was sustained southward through the first half of the period,
with a peak deflection of -11 nT observed. During the latter half of the
period, the Bz component rotated northward with only brief southward
deflections observed. Solar wind speeds were steady between 300-350 km/s
until 27/0230 UTC, when speed values slowly increased to a period high
of around 550 km/s. The phi angle transitioned from negative to positive
at 26/1502 UTC. |
| Enhanced solar wind conditions are likely over 27-29 Apr due to CH HSS
influences and possible transient activity associated with multiple CMEs
that are expected to pass in close proximity over the next few days. |
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| The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels this
period. |
| Geomagnetic field activity is expected to range from quiet to active
levels on 27-28 Apr, and quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Apr, due to the
anticipated influence of CH HSSs combined with potential transient
influence of multiple near-miss CMEs from the past several days. A
chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods exists on 27-28 Apr should these
features arrive at Earth and carry periods of significant southward Bz. |
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