Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2019 Feb 20 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with no numbered regions on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 20-22 Feb.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 20-21 Feb with a chance for high levels on 22 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed steadily decreased throughout the period from 350 km/s to near 300 km/s by the end of the day. Total field averaged near 3 nT, while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced by mid to late day on 20 Feb due to the onset of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. HSS effects are expected to persist into 21 Feb and slowly wane on 22 Feb. Solar wind speed is likely to be in the 450-500 km/s range, based on STEREO A data.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active levels on 20-21 Feb due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 22 Feb as HSS effects diminish.
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