Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
Issued: 2024 Mar 19 0030 UTC |
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Solar activity reached high levels (R2-Moderate) with a few M-class
flares observed during the period. The strongest event of the period was
an impulsive M6.7 flare observed at 18/1919 UTC from new Region 3615
(S12E62, Eao/beta-gamma). Since being numbered, this region has
contributed numerous C-class flares as well. Region 3612 (N22, L=014)
produced an M2.7 flare at 18/0332 UTC as it rotated around the NW limb.
Shortly after, an additional M1.0 flare was observed from Region 3614
(N16E56, Dai/beta) at 18/0414 UTC. Emerging flux was noted to the SW of
Region 3608 (N10W24, Bxo/beta) and was numbered 3616 (N02W31, Dai/beta).
Since its emergence, this region has grown rapidly over the period. Between about 18/0200-0315 UTC, an 11 degree long filament erupted that
was centered near N13W32. At this time, no discernable CME was observed
in SOHO/LASCO imagery. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery. |
Solar activity is expected to be low over 19-21 Mar, with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate). |
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The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was elevated above background
levels, but remained well below event threshold. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. |
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain elevated, but
below event levels on 19 Mar, and slowly return to background levels
over 20-21 Mar. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be
at normal to moderate levels. |
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Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal. Solar wind speeds remained
steady near 300 km/s through about 18/1940 UTC when an increase to about
357 km/s was observed. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5
nT through 18/1935 UTC when an increase to 11 nT was observed. The Bz
component was mostly positive through about 18/1300 UTC when a dip to
-10 nT was observed. The Phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive
sector. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed at 18/2016 UTC. |
Ambient to weakly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail
over 19 Mar and the first half of 20 Mar. Enhanced solar wind conditions
are expected after midday on 20 Mar through 21 Mar due to the
anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar filament
eruption. |
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The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. |
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
19 Mar through midday on 20 Mar. Periods of active conditions and G1
(Minor) storming are likely during the latter half of 20 Mar through 21
Mar due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs associated with the 17 Mar
filament eruption. |
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