Space Weather Forecast Discussion
| Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center |
| Issued: 2023 Mar 31 0030 UTC |
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| Solar activity reached high levels with with an M5.4/1f flare at 30/0737
UTC from Region 3256 (S22W88, Cao/beta-gamma). There were Type II (279
km/s) and IV radio sweeps accompanying this event and a CME. The CME was
determined to be well ahead of Earths orbit. Region 3265 (N21W59, Cso/beta) produced a C1.9/Sf flare at 30/2326 UTC.
Region 3262 (S19W34, Hsx/alpha) produced back-to-back C-class flares
late in the period but was otherwise inactive. The other regions were
stable or in decay and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. |
| Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance of an X-class (R3-Strong)
event on 31 Mar mainly as a result of Region 3256s flare history.
Region 3256 will rotate to and beyond the limb by 01 Apr and only
a slight chance of M-class flares is forecast. |
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| The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated following the
M5 flare but was less than 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
fell to moderate levels with the arrival of a CH HSS. |
| The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at near
background levels through 02 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
is expected to reach high levels by 01 Apr with elevated |
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| Solar wind parameters were elevated with the arrival of a negative
polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was between 4-10 nT. Bz reached a
maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Wind speeds increased from around
460 km/s to near 600 km/s, although accurate measurements of the solar
wind have been difficult due to low densities. The phi angle was
oriented in a negative solar sector. |
| Elevated levels of activity with this CH HSS are expected to last
through day three of the forecast (02 Apr). |
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| The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with the arrival of
a CH HSS around midday. |
| G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected to be reached on 31 Mar with the
onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled to active
conditions are then expected through 02 Apr. |
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