Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2021 Feb 26 1230 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2804 (N18W52, Dsi/beta) began to exhibit decay in its intermediate and trailer spots, but continued to produce multiple low level B-class flares. Although Region 2805 (S22W47) decayed to an area of enhanced plage during the period, it did manage to produce a B9/Sf flare at 26/0725 UTC. Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA193 imagery at approximately 26/0715 UTC, following the B9/Sf flare near Region 2805. Initial coronagraph imagery is just beginning to fill in, and an in-depth analysis will be conducted once enough data is obtained to determine if there was an associated CME.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares on 26-28 Feb.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with a chance for high levels on 26-28 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters experienced weak enhancements under diminishing CME effects. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 500 km/s to near 400 km/s, total field averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz component was between +/-5 nT. Phi angle was in a mostly negative orientation, with isolated oscillations into the positive sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to continue to diminish on 26 Feb. A return to nominal levels is expected on 27-28 Feb.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to persistent, yet waning CME effects.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods, due to prolonged southward Bz on 26-28 Feb.
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