Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2017 Apr 24 1230 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. There was no significant flare activity from the three numbered sunspots on the disk. All three sunspot groups were stable, exhibiting little to no change throughout the reporting period. The eruptive filament mentioned in the previous discussion product, located near N40W01, was determined to not be geoeffective. An additional eruptive filament located near N36E32 was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately 24/0010 UTC. An associated CME was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery starting at approximately 24/0300. Modeling analysis is ongoing to determine if this CME contains an Earth-directed component.
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (24-26 Apr).

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 20,544 pfu observed at 23/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (24-26 Apr), with very high levels possible on days two and three (25-26 Apr), due to sustained fast

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, were indicative of the continued influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady, ranging between 700 and 750 km/s with a peak speed of 813 km/s observed at 23/2022 UTC. Total field (Bt) ranged between 3 and 7 nT, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative sector.
Enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely to continue over the next three days (24-26 Apr) due to persistent influence from the recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) storm levels due to the influence of a strong, negative polarity CH HSS.
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (24 Apr) and likley to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on days two and three (25-26 Apr) as CH HSS influence persists.
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