Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2023 Oct 03 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 3455 (N25E58 Cro/Beta) produced an M1.9/1N flare at 02/1246 UTC with a corresponding eruption to the south. Region 3450 (S18E04 Eac/Beta-Gamma) remains the most magnetically complex and produced some low-level C-flares. More intermediate spots developed in this region. Region 3452 (N11E33 Dai/Beta) was the largest at 240 mil, but showed some consolidation in the leader spots. A very faint CME was observed in LASCO C3 imagery around 02/1418 UTC possibly associated with dimming in GOES-16 SUVI imagery between 02/12-13 UTC. Ill let the night shift make the call. A preliminary analysis suggested it would be moving at 260 km/s.
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a chance for more M-class flares through 05 Oct. With the number of both regions and filaments, an earth directed eruption is not out of the question.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 03-05 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 03-05 Oct.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind was generally slow (350-400 km/s). Bz was southward (approx. 0 to -5 nT) for much of the period. Density was low, which prompted a change from DSCOVR to ACE around 02/0217 UTC. The subsequent loss of ACE tracking around 1615 UTC forced a return to DSCOVR by 1646 UTC. The speed reported by DSCOVR was generally reasonable at the time of writing.
WSA-Enlil suggest the approach of a fast solar wind stream mid-late on the 3rd and extending into the 4th, most likely associated with the small coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. Another coronal hole was analyzed in the southern hemisphere and could bring enhanced conditions on the 5th, however confidence in the coronal hole influences is low.

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
The geomagnetic field is likely to be at quiet to active levels through 03 Oct due to anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Unsettled levels are expected on 04 Oct, with a possible return to active conditions on 05 Oct if the southern hemisphere fast stream is well connected.
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