Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2019 Sep 15 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 15-17 Sep.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak of 3,102 pfu observed at 14/1840 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15-17 Sep in response to recent elevated

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind speed was in decline over the period as HSS effects dissipated. Solar wind speed decreased from approximately 500 km/s to near 435 km/s. Total field was steady at 4 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels over 15-16 Sep. By 17 Sep, another enhancement is expected around midday on 17 Sep as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15-16 Sep with isolated unsettled periods possible. Unsettled conditions are likely after midday on 17 Sep as a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective.
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