Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2023 Mar 31 0030 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels with with an M5.4/1f flare at 30/0737 UTC from Region 3256 (S22W88, Cao/beta-gamma). There were Type II (279 km/s) and IV radio sweeps accompanying this event and a CME. The CME was determined to be well ahead of Earths orbit. Region 3265 (N21W59, Cso/beta) produced a C1.9/Sf flare at 30/2326 UTC. Region 3262 (S19W34, Hsx/alpha) produced back-to-back C-class flares late in the period but was otherwise inactive. The other regions were stable or in decay and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance of an X-class (R3-Strong) event on 31 Mar mainly as a result of Region 3256s flare history. Region 3256 will rotate to and beyond the limb by 01 Apr and only a slight chance of M-class flares is forecast.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly elevated following the M5 flare but was less than 1 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux fell to moderate levels with the arrival of a CH HSS.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at near background levels through 02 Apr. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels by 01 Apr with elevated

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were elevated with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength was between 4-10 nT. Bz reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Wind speeds increased from around 460 km/s to near 600 km/s, although accurate measurements of the solar wind have been difficult due to low densities. The phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector.
Elevated levels of activity with this CH HSS are expected to last through day three of the forecast (02 Apr).

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with the arrival of a CH HSS around midday.
G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected to be reached on 31 Mar with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are then expected through 02 Apr.
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