Space Weather Forecast Discussion
Forecast Discussion
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Issued: 2024 Apr 12 1230 UTC

Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels due to an M5.4 flare at 11/1706 UTC from a Region just beyond the E limb near S15. Associated with the flare was a Type IV radio sweep and a CME off the SE limb at 11/1712 UTC. Due to its location beyond the limb, no Earth-directed component is expected. Region 3634 (N25E02, Dsi/beta-gamma) produced a C5.5/Sf flare at 12/0327 UTC. Slight growth was observed in this region as well as in Region 3635 (N22E33, Csi/beta-gamma). New Region 3636 (S19E67, Cso/beta) rotated onto the SE limb and was numbered. The CME from a filament eruption near N20E02 that began at 11/0600 UTC was analyzed as a glancing-blow arrival before midday on 14 Apr. A 17 degree long filament, centered near S16W14, began to erupt at about 12/0020 UTC. No apparent CME signature was observed. At this time, no additional Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 11-13 Apr.

Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels through 14 Apr.

Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from about 395-509 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-5 nT. Phi angle was mostly positive.
.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected on 12 Apr. Weak HSS disturbances are likely on 13 Apr. By midday on 14 Apr, the glancing-blow arrival of the 11 Apr CME is likely to cause further solar wind enhancements.

Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast...
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 12 Apr. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 13 Apr with CH HSS onset. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 14 Apr with the combination of a weak HSS and the arrival of the 11 Apr CME.
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