000
FXUS66 KSTO 221140
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
340 AM PST Sat Jan 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong north/east winds will continue this morning and then
diminish by afternoon. Continued mild temperatures with dry
weather and lighter winds into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure ridging is centered off the Oregon coast,
while an upper low is centered over the southern California and
Mexican border. Strong north and east surface pressure gradients
developed Friday and Friday night. The Reno to Sacramento (East
to West) gradient peaked at 10.3 mb around 8 pm PST, down to 9.5
mb at 2 am. The Redding to Sacramento (North to South) gradient
peaked at 6.0 mb at 7 pm and was 5.7 mb at 3 am.

Winds at Fairfield at 3 am were gusting to 48 mph out of the
northeast, which was the strongest measured in the Delta area,
Marysville was gusting to 37 mph. Mixing after the sun rises could
bring a little more gusting in the Valley before winds weaken with
the decreasing gradient. The Wind Advisory continues until 7 am
for the Sacramento Valley and Delta, while the Advisory has been
cancelled for the Northern San Joaquin, where winds are generally
light. Strongest winds are expected on the far west side of the
Sacramento Valley and over the Delta, where a barrier jet is
located.

Winds in the mountains were gusting up to 53 mph at Colby Mountain
at 3 am, with gusts in the 30s and 40s over the northern Sierra.
While winds were at the strongest Friday afternoon and evening,
strong gusty winds are possible over higher terrain through the
rest of the morning, so the High Wind Warning continues until
noon. Winds will continue to decrease this afternoon and
overnight.

Impacts associated with the strong winds include the potential
for downed trees, particularly in the mountains where the
strongest winds are forecast; possible power outages; and
difficulty with travel for high-profile vehicles. Furthermore,
expect mountain recreation impacts for those planning to hike,
ski, and/or snowshoe this morning. Exercise extreme caution if
venturing into forested areas as conditions could be dangerous
with the strong winds!

Temperatures will be quite mild today and will reach the upper 60s
to lower 70s in the Valley. Dry, light offshore flow will
persist through the weekend and into Monday with above-normal
temperatures expected to continue. Temperatures will cool slightly
Tuesday as a shortwave drops into the Rocky Mountains and lowers
heights some over NorCal. EK

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Ensembles and clusters remain in solid agreement with upper level
ridging over the West Coast through much of next week. Could see
a weak trough approach the West Coast toward the end of the week,
as is depicted in the ensemble means and a few clusters. For now,
the National Blend of Models keeps the chance of measurable
precipitation at 15 percent or less region-wide through the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions next 24 hours, except local MVFR visibilities
northern San Joaquin Valley thru about 17Z. Northerly surface wind
gusts 15-30 kts in the Sacramento Valley, decreasing after 00Z
Sunday. Elsewhere, areas northeast surface wind gusts 20-40 kts
northern Sierra Nevada, with local gusts over 50 kts, decreasing
after 00Z Sunday. &&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until noon PST today for West Slope Northern
Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Carquinez Strait
and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northern Sacramento
Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$