000
FXUS66 KSTO 071125
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
325 AM PST Tue Feb 7 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry weather weather through most of the week with chilly
nights and high temperatures near to above normal. Slight chance
for light precipitation Friday into Saturday and again early next
week, mainly across the mountains and foothills.

&&

.Discussion...
Observations at Modesto at 3 am were showing some mist with a
visibility of 2.5 miles, 4 miles at Stockton. Some patchy morning
fog could develop through around 10 am this morning for portions
of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Dense
fog is not expected to become widespread this morning, though.

Upper level ridging will be flattened a bit today as a weak
shortwave passes through the Pacific Northwest. This will just
bring just some increased cloud cover through the day and
slightly cooler temperatures. Current satellite shows some high
clouds just beginning to spread onshore.

By Wednesday, the high pressure ridge will rebuild. Clear skies
and light winds should bring a better potential for morning fog,
with probabilities for fog in the Valley from Chico southward
around 50% to 75% through 10 am. Morning frost is also possible.
Light north winds develop in the afternoon and continue into early
Thursday. These along with some high clouds should reduce the
potential for fog for Thursday morning. Wednesday and Thursday
high temperatures will be above normal, generally in the mid 60s
for the Valley,

A shortwave with a cold front moves in Friday afternoon and
evening then pushes through overnight. This system pushes into
Southern California later Saturday. The NBM continues to show
limited moisture with this system, with even the northern Sierra
having just 10% change of getting more than half an inch of
precipitation. Snow levels are projected to be around 5,00 to
6,000 feet, with an inch or less of snowfall currently forecast,
so impacts to mountain travel should be limited. EK
&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)...
Lingering showers possible, mainly over the Sierra Nevada,
Saturday as upper low moves through and closes off over SoCal.
Drier weather Sunday into Monday as upper ridge builds inland.
Another short wave trough drops into the area Tuesday with some
additional light precipitation possible. &&

.AVIATION...
VFR over interior NorCal next 24 hrs except isolated MVFR in BR
in Central Vly til 17z. Lcl N-E sfc wind gusts up to 25 kts til
18z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$