000
FXUS66 KSTO 112108
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
208 PM PDT Sat Jul 11 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with seasonably hot temperatures continue through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over the region will stay in place this
weekend. Temperatures will continue to be hot on Sunday
with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Marine layer
is shallow near 1000 feet deep and coastal low clouds are absent.
A few patches may form in the Bay later tonight. Most likely it
will take another night before there is a decent return of the
stratus which will translate into better Delta Breezes and
cooler temperatures for the Sacramento region. Further inland
temperatures are expected to remain hot with little change in the
daily high temperatures with warm overnight temperatures,
especially in the thermal belt areas that will only cool off into
the 70s through Tuesday.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...

By the middle of next week, the region will be bounded by a pair
of upper anticyclones. What remains of the weekend Four Corners
ridge will be centered over Texas while additional ridging is
evident over the eastern Pacific. Although heights are forecast to
come down a bit, 850-mb temperatures remain in the 26-28C range on
Wednesday which suggests widespread triple digits. This will
especially be the case north of I-80 with 105 to 109 degree highs
possible. Given a deep, well-mixed boundary layer which is
typical for the warm season, these numbers should easily be
attainable.

From Thursday into the following weekend, deterministic and
ensemble guidance maintain a weakness in the sprawling ridge of
high pressure. 500-mb heights are roughly 6 dm lower over the
state which will bring temperatures down a tad. Instead of being
around 5 to 10 degrees above climatology, perhaps departures will
be closer to 2 to 5 degrees late next week. While not introducing
any terrain showers at the moment, these synoptic patterns can be
accompanied by an uptick in instability. Aside from the 12Z GFS
showing a broad 0.01" precipitation contour over the Sierra on
Thursday, the guidance does not appear too enthused at this
juncture. ~BRO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions next 24 hours. Local southwesterly surface wind
gusts 15-25 kts vicinity Carquinez Strait and west Delta
after 00Z.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$