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Forecast Discussion for Sacramento, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSTO 240900
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
100 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2024

.Synopsis...
Dry and warmer weather through the weekend with patchy morning
fog. A weak system brings showers and mountain snow showers on
Monday. Confidence is increasing for an active pattern returning
late next week into next weekend bringing widespread precipitation,
heavy mountain snow, gusty winds and foothill snow accumulations.

&&

.Discussion...
Our weather will continue to be dry and pleasant through much of
the weekend as we`re influenced by a ridge currently across the
southwest. This ridge will allow for temperatures to increase
about 5-8 degrees above seasonal normals over the weekend,
providing highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across the Valley.
Another weather feature,  a large closed upper- low spinning over
800 miles west of SF, will only marginally impact us by bringing
periods of mid to high clouds through the weekend.

Besides some passing clouds, some brief, patchy dense fog is
possible this morning and again Sunday morning, primarily in the
northern San Joaquin Valley. Though, given latest cloud cover
trends via satellite, and only some patchy 30% probabilities of
dense fog development, confidence is not significant enough on
the development or extent to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory.

As heights decrease in response to an approaching inside slider
progged to dig into the Great Basin Sunday evening-Monday, temps
will be tempered a bit from those Saturday. The inside slider is
progged to phase with the low to our west, which will weaken as it
moves southwest. These systems will bring meager moisture,
mountain snow, and some breezy winds primarily on Monday. Some
hires guidance is indicating that enough moisture may be around
Sunday evening across Shasta County that an isolated shower or two
may develop around the Redding area/surrounding mountains, but
otherwise, the bulk of the precipitation is expected Monday as the
inside slider quickly digs into the Great Basin.

Given the track, meager moisture and quick nature of the next
system, the bulk of the precip will fall across the Sierra. Snow
levels will be between 5000-6000 feet ahead of the front. Latest
NBM probabilities indicate a 40-60% of 0.50" within 24 hours
across the mountains. 24hr snowfall probabilities of at least 4
inches are 20-45% across the I-80 and Highway 50 corridors, with
probabilities decreasing to 15-30% for at least 6 inches. As such,
some travel delays, slick and snow covered roads, and chain
controls will be possible at times in the Sierra Nevada, with wind
gusts of 35 to 45 mph.

Little if any impacts are expected outside of the mountains given
the minimal precipitation forecast for the Valley and foothills.
Outside of precip, expect some breezy southerly winds bringing
gusts around 20-30 mph ahead of the cold front associated with
the inside- slider.

//Peters

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)...
Dry Wednesday as upper ridging move through. Models then begin to
introduce precip over northern portions of the CWA Wednesday
night and over the entire forecast area Thursday. Cat 1 AR will
bring widespread light to moderate precipitation with heavier
amounts over the mountains Thursday into Saturday. Periods of
strong gusty wind will accompany the precipitation. Snow levels
begin around 4500 to 5500 feet Thursday, then lower 3000 to 4500
feet Friday and 2500 to 3500 feet Saturday. Early storm total QPF
calling for around .5 to 1.5 inches in the Central Valley, and 1.5
to 5 inches in the foothills and mountains. Several feet of new
snow possible above 6000 feet.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs exc lcl
MVFR/IFR/LIFR possible in BR/FG in S Sac/N San Joaquin Vlys til
17z. Sfc wind mainly below 12 kts.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
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