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927
FXUS66 KSTO 200800
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
100 AM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues, with a warming trend into the weekend.
Temperatures peak on Saturday, with widespread triple digit highs
in the Central Valley and into the lower foothills. A little less
hot early next week.

&&

Key Points
- Above normal temperatures today, much warmer Friday into the
  weekend, hottest on Saturday.
- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected from Friday through
  Monday
-A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 am to 8 pm Saturday with
 Widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the
 Central Valley and foothills on Saturday; Highs in the triple
 digits.

Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Sunday)...
Ensembles and clusters indicate that weak upper level trough will
remain over NorCal today. This trough will weaken and gradually
transition into a ridge Friday into the weekend, as an upper high
strengthens over the Desert Southwest. This will have temperatures
warming to slightly above normal today in the 90`s, before
heating up to well above normal levels from the upper 90`s to low
100`s Friday. Widespread triple digit heat is expected Saturday
with Central Valley and lower foothill highs 100-106. Some Delta
air will modify the late afternoon high temperatures over the
Delta, and portions of the southern Sacramento Valley keeping most
of these areas in moderate heat risk versus major to the north
and over the foothills. Increasing southwest flow is expected over
NorCal Sunday, as a trough moves through the Pacific Northwest.
This will likely initiate an afternoon Delta breeze with high
temps a few degrees cooler in the upper 90`s and low 100`s.

Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected to start Friday and will
continue through the weekend, with areas of Major HeatRisk on
Saturday. Currently probabilities of Sacramento Valley locations
(north of Sacramento metropolitan area) reaching at least 100
degrees on Friday are 50 to 90%, on Saturday 75 to 95%. From the
Sacramento metropolitan area and southward into the northern San
Joaquin Valley, chances are 15 to 50% probability Friday, 75 to
85% on Saturday.

Outside of the Delta, winds will generally be light, helping to
reduce critical fire weather conditions a bit, despite lowering
relative humidity Friday and especially Saturday.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)...
Desert SW upper high extends over NorCal Monday into Tuesday with
above normal temperatures continuing. Highs in the Central Valley
expected in the 90s to around 100 in the warmest spots. Ridge
weakens Wednesday into Thursday as short wave trough pushes into
the PacNW. Minor synoptic cooling with increased onshore will
result. Highs midweek expected in the low to mid 90s for the
Central Valley with mainly 70s to 80s for mountains and foothills.
Dry weather persists through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs. Sfc wind mainly
below 12 kts except vcnty of Delta SWly sfc wind 15-25 kts.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Saturday for Central
Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta
County to Western Colusa County-Northern Sacramento Valley-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Sacramento, CA (STO) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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