NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mar 6, 2021 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 6 05:19:37 UTC 2021
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 060519

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1119 PM CST Fri Mar 05 2021

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

   ...Northern Rockies...

   Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the northern
   Rockies during the day1 period ahead of a sharp short-wave trough
   that will progress into western MT/WY by 07/00z. While moisture will
   prove sparse across this region (PW on the order of .30 inches),
   very steep lapse rates and cool profiles suggest weak convection
   should develop ahead of a cold front between 20z-07/00z. Forecast
   soundings suggest there may be enough buoyancy for a few lightning
   flashes with the strongest updrafts.

   ...FL...

   Primary surface wave should track across the eastern Gulf Basin into
   the FL Straits by early evening in response to a digging short-wave
   trough. This evolution suggests the greatest risk for thunderstorms
   will focus well west of the Peninsula where buoyancy/low-level
   convergence will be maximized. Even so, there appears to be a low
   risk for a few thunderstorms in association with a southward-moving
   cold front across the central/southern Peninsula. Generally weak
   convergence over land should limit convective coverage.

   ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/06/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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