NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sep 25, 2021 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 25 16:15:11 UTC 2021
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 251615

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 AM CDT Sat Sep 25 2021

   Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

   ...Synopsis...
   A midlevel low will move eastward from the north shore of Lake
   Superior, while a trailing shortwave trough progresses from the OH
   Valley to the Appalachians, along with a surface cold front. 
   Low-level moisture and buoyancy will remain quite limited along the
   front, with areas closer to eastern Upper MI and the lower Great
   Lakes slightly more favorable for isolated lightning flashes with
   low-topped convection this afternoon/evening.  Farther east and
   overnight, there will be a low chance for elevated thunderstorms
   across eastern New England, along and to the immediate cool side of
   a slow-moving baroclinic zone as the ejecting Appalachians midlevel
   trough approaches from the southwest.

   The greater chances for thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
   across south FL in association with local sea breeze circulations in
   a moist environment south of a stalled front.  Scattered
   thunderstorms are also expected through tonight in the zone of weak
   ascent and sufficient low-midlevel moisture across AZ/NM, northeast
   of a closed midlevel low over northern Baja.

   ..Thompson/Squitieri.. 09/25/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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