NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jul 24, 2019 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 24 01:01:06 UTC 2019
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 240101

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0801 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

   Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated downburst winds remain possible this evening over the
   northern Rockies region as well as over southern Arizona.

   ...Northern Rockies area...

   Mid-level ascent accompanying a series of embedded vorticity maxima
   moving around the northern periphery of an upper ridge along with
   heating over the mountains has fostered the development of scattered
   thunderstorms over the northern Rockies. The Great Falls MT 00Z RAOB
   shows a well mixed boundary layer from 900-650 mb, with 50F near
   surface temperature-dewpoint spreads along with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
   This environment will promote a few instances of downburst winds as
   storms move northeast off the higher terrain this evening.

   Other storms may develop later this evening from northeastern WA
   into northern ID, along a cold front accompanied by deeper forcing
   for ascent attending a shortwave trough moving through the Pacific
   Northwest. These storms will exist within a strongly sheared
   environment and may pose at least a marginal risk for a few strong
   to damaging gusts. Overall severe threat in this region should
   remain limited by weak instability and a stabilizing near-surface
   layer. 

   ...Southern Arizona...

   Storms moving westward off the higher terrain will remain capable of
   producing isolated downburst winds over southern AZ this evening
   where deeply mixed boundary layers and steep low-level lapse rates
   exist.

   ..Dial.. 07/24/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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