SPC AC 191610

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER
   PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES...AND LATE
   OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail are expected
   today across parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley area and
   Mid-Atlantic into western New England.  Severe hail also may become
   concentrated late tonight into tomorrow morning over parts of the
   southern High Plains.

   ...NY/PA into western New England...
   Strong heating is occurring over much of NY/PA today, as
   southwesterly low level winds transport increasingly moist air into
   the region.  Dewpoints are climbing into the 60s over this region,
   which will yield afternoon MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. 
   Thunderstorms will increase in coverage early this afternoon and
   spread eastward across parts of NY/PA and eventually into parts of
   NJ and western New England.  Forecast soundings indicate sufficient
   vertical shear for organized multicell storm clusters and perhaps a
   supercell or two.  Locally gusty/damaging winds appear possible in
   the strongest cells, along with some risk of hail.  This threat
   should diminish by mid-evening.

   ...IL into MI...
   A broad shield of clouds and associated precipitation is affecting
   much of eastern IL, IN, lower MI, and western Ohio.  Clearing will
   occur this afternoon in the wake of this system, leading to
   sufficient instability for the redevelopment of scattered
   thunderstorms.  Large scale forcing is weak in this region, and
   overall convective coverage/intensity is expected to be rather weak.
   Nevertheless, a few strong to severe storms are possible, capable of
   hail and damaging wind gusts.

   ...West TX overnight...
   12z model solutions are consistent in the development of vigorous
   thunderstorms over west TX late tonight as the next potent upper
   trough begins to affect the Plains.  These storms will pose a risk
   of large hail - mainly after 10z.

   ..Hart/Karstens.. 05/19/2019

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