
Foresthill Advisery text:
Warning Date: 4:24 PM PST on March 9, 2010
Updated:
3/9/10 10:24pm
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| Mar 10, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook | ||||
| Updated: Wed Mar 10 06:02:15 UTC 2010 | ||||
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| Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook |
SPC AC 100559 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST TUE MAR 09 2010 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD/NEWD WITH TIME THIS PERIOD...AS A SECOND MOVES QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF CA/NV ACROSS AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED INVOF ERN NM -- S AND W OF THE INITIAL LOW WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MO/IA -- AS THE SECOND UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM...WITH STORMS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND VICINITY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM CROSSES THIS REGION. FINALLY...CONVECTION MAY ALSO AFFECT COASTAL PARTS OF THE PAC NW...AS A SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION... KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES ON LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW. AREA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS MODELS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADO POTENTIAL. HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY OVER THE KS/OK VICINITY...IS ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY...MOVING NEWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TRAILING SWD...A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED TROUGH/FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO WRN AR/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY...LARGELY WASHING OUT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE PARENT LOW SHIFTS NEWD. THE LATEST HI-RES WRF RUN -- LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS -- DOES NOT INITIATE APPRECIABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER EARLIER/WARM ADVECTION-TYPE CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM THE AREA. WHILE NAM/GFS RUNS DO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT -- WHICH HINTS AT ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES...AS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR/DEGREE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN. IF GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST...THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. ...FAR ERN KS AND ADJACENT WRN AND CENTRAL MO... COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...GIVEN A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS. WHILE A STRONGER CELL OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A COLD AIR FUNNEL OR EVEN BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM. ..GOSS.. 03/10/2010 |
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