NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Oct 19, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 19 19:30:07 UTC 2018
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 191930

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

   Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms are not expected over the U.S. today.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Some changes to the categorical (10 percent probability of) thunder
   line have been made, mostly in an attempt to better account for
   latest observational trends.  

   Across Florida, relatively warm layers aloft and weak/negligible
   forcing for ascent probably will continue to minimize the risk for
   thunderstorms.  However, the initiation of an isolated thunderstorm
   may not yet be out of the question through around 6-7 PM EDT across
   parts of the central Peninsula, where boundary layer instability
   (CAPE up to 1000 J/kg) has become locally maximized.

   ..Kerr.. 10/19/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   Large-scale trough amplification will occur through tonight over the
   Great Lakes and Midwest. Prevalent cool/stable conditions will
   relegate isolated thunderstorm potential to the southern tier of the
   CONUS. Near a remnant baroclinic zone, the most probable area for a
   few thunderstorms will be in the warm advection zone from the middle
   TX coast northward, with only isolated thunderstorms expected
   farther east along the Gulf Coast into northern FL. Other elevated
   convection will be possible from northern Mexico into the TX Big
   Bend vicinity.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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