NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Apr 19, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 190450

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CDT Wed Apr 18 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR WEST
   TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a portion of
   southern New Mexico and far West Texas late this afternoon into
   tonight with a risk for downburst winds and hail.

   ...Synopsis...

   Upper trough approaching CA will continue through the Great Basin
   today and into the southwest U.S. this afternoon and tonight.
   Farther east a shortwave trough will move off the Atlantic Seaboard
   accompanied by a cold front, but the southwestern extension of this
   boundary will stall over the northern Gulf.

   ...Far West Texas through Southern New Mexico...

   Richer low-level moisture will remain confined to the Gulf and deep
   south TX to the south of stalled front. However, the establishment
   of southeasterly low-level winds across far west TX and NM today
   will contribute to the advection of limited moisture with low 40s F
   dewpoints through the Rio Grande Valley beneath plume of steep lapse
   rates. A narrow corridor of 300-500 J/kg MLCAPE should evolve, while
   upper divergence and height falls accompanying the upstream trough
   approach from the west. Initiation of a few surface-based
   thunderstorms over the higher terrain is probable by late afternoon
   or early evening from far West TX into southwestern NM.
   Strengthening winds aloft with effective bulk shear increasing to
   45+ kt will support a conditional risk for a supercell or two.
   Storms should remain high based given limited boundary layer
   moisture, promoting large temperature-dewpoint spreads. The stronger
   storms may produce locally strong to damaging wind gusts and hail
   before weakening with onset of nocturnal cooling.

   ..Dial/Cook.. 04/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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