NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sep 19, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 19 16:08:48 UTC 2019
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 191608

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1108 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
   THE HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA
   COAST....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging winds and marginally
   severe hail will be possible in parts of the central and southern
   High Plains this afternoon and evening.  A brief tornado or two will
   also be possible near the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast.

   ...High Plains...
   A large upper trough is present over the western states today, while
   a broad upper ridge dominates the weather in the east. 
   Southwesterly flow aloft persists over the High Plains, where full
   sunshine and dewpoints in the 60s will result in steep low-level
   lapse rates and moderate CAPE.  A weak midlevel impulse over NM will
   likely aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by
   mid-afternoon over southeast CO and western portions of the TX/OK
   Panhandles.  This activity will spread northeastward into western KS
   during the evening.  Midlevel winds are relatively weak, which may
   limit overall organization of the storms.  However, potential exists
   for gusty/damaging winds and hail in the strongest cells through the
   early evening.

   ...LA/TX...
   TD Imelda continues to affect portions of the upper TX and southwest
   LA coastal region.  Transient rotating storms have been noted this
   morning near the Sabine river.  Increasingly discrete convection on
   the southwest flank of the circulation may also pose a risk of a
   brief spin-up or two farther south along the upper/middle TX coast
   later today.

   ..Hart/Gleason.. 09/19/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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