NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sep 21, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 210100

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

   Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS VICINITY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong to severe storms with locally damaging wind risk may
   continue for a few more hours from parts of Wisconsin to northeast
   Missouri, as well as across portions of central and northern Texas.

   ...Wisconsin to northeast Missouri...
   Strong storms continue early this evening near and ahead of a
   surface cold front -- from roughly central Wisconsin southwest to
   the Iowa/Illinois border area.  While deep-layer shear remains
   sufficient for a few organized storms, convection is expected to
   gradually weaken this evening as diurnal stabilization acts in
   concert with gradually weakening flow as the upper system departs
   north-northeastward across the western Ontario vicinity.

   ...Parts of central and northern Texas...
   A few vigorous storms persist -- mainly within a corridor from
   roughly San Angelo northeast into portions of the northern Texas
   vicinity.  The overall trend has been for convection to gradually
   diminish, and expect severe threat to likewise wane over the next
   few hours, given a stabilizing boundary layer and relatively weak
   flow through the lower and middle troposphere as indicated by
   evening ROABs and local VWPs.

   ..Goss.. 09/21/2017

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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