SPC AC 111947

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0147 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2019

   Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms remain possible today into tonight from
   south/east Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana.  Severe thunderstorms
   are not expected.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A few tweaks to the northern end of the thunder area over northern
   the northern Arkansas vicinity have been made for this outlook
   update, as a few strikes have strayed just outside the prior thunder
   line.  Otherwise, the ongoing forecast remains on track.

   ..Goss.. 11/11/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   An arctic cold front is surging southeastward across the southern
   Plains toward the lower MS Valley, in association with a northern
   stream shortwave trough crossing the upper Midwest.  The 12z OUN
   sounding revealed a few hundred J/kg of CAPE in the 700-400 mb
   layer, with equilibrium level temperatures cold enough for mixed
   phase and charge separation (colder than -20 C).  A few elevated
   thunderstorms may occur today atop the frontal surface and in the
   zone of lingering warm advection from extreme eastern OK into
   AR/northern LA, but storm coverage should remain isolated.  Other
   isolated thunderstorms may also occur along or just behind the cold
   front in TX.  The relatively greater thunderstorm chances will be
   across the lower Rio Grande Valley this evening into early tonight
   in the zone of ascent along and immediately north of the surface
   cold front.

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z