SPC AC 060515

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1115 PM CST Tue Dec 05 2023

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Some lightning potential exists with convection along parts of the
   northern Pacific Coast.

   ...Pacific Coast...

   Upper ridge currently observed over the western US will shift east
   and break down as a strong short-wave trough ejects inland along the
   northern Pacific Coast. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb speed
   max will translate across northern CA into the Great Basin by the
   end of the period. Along and north of this jet, thermal profiles
   will cool/steepen such that weak buoyancy will evolve in support of
   convection. Forecast soundings across this region suggest the
   greatest risk for deep convection, capable of generating lighting,
   will occur during the latter half of the period. During this time,
   500mb temperatures will cool to near -30C over WA/OR, and at least
   -20C across most of northern CA.

   ..Darrow/Thornton.. 12/06/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z