NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Jan 20, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 201628

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 AM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

   Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous
   United States.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A vigorous southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the
   Southwest and Great Basin to the Four Corners by early Sunday
   morning as a Pacific cold front likewise moves eastward across these
   same areas. Strong forcing for ascent will modestly steepen
   mid-level lapse rates preceding this shortwave trough across parts
   of AZ/UT into western CO/NM this afternoon and evening. Some
   mid-level moisture will accompany this shortwave trough, and very
   isolated lightning strikes cannot be ruled out across this region.
   However, overall coverage is still expected to remain too low to
   include a general thunderstorm area due to meager instability.

   A band of showers extends north-south across the western Gulf of
   Mexico to the central TX Coast this morning in a zone of low-level
   moisture return and warm air advection. While a lightning strike or
   two cannot be completely ruled out with this activity along the
   immediate TX Coast, low-level flow is forecast to slowly weaken
   across this region by this afternoon/evening. This diminishing
   low-level flow and warm air advection coupled with no obvious
   large-scale forcing mechanism for ascent suggest thunderstorm
   potential should remain low.

   A weak mid/upper level trough over LA/MS this morning will continue
   to fill/weaken through the period as it moves slowly eastward across
   the Southeast. While some low-topped showers have formed across LA
   in association with this mid/upper-level trough, both lift and
   instability should remain too limited to support thunderstorms.

   ..Gleason.. 01/20/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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