SPC AC 100559
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1159 PM CST TUE MAR 09 2010
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS PROGGED TO SHIFT NWD/NEWD WITH
   TIME THIS PERIOD...AS A SECOND MOVES QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF CA/NV
   ACROSS AZ AND NM THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   
   AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED INVOF ERN NM -- S AND W OF
   THE INITIAL LOW WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING NEWD TOWARD MO/IA -- AS THE
   SECOND UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE.  CONVECTION
   IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MS
   VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF THE INITIAL SYSTEM...WITH STORMS ALSO LIKELY
   ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND VICINITY AS THE SECOND SYSTEM
   CROSSES THIS REGION.  FINALLY...CONVECTION MAY ALSO AFFECT COASTAL
   PARTS OF THE PAC NW...AS A SHARP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE.
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
   KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF LA/AR/MS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
   LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW.  AREA POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS
   MODELS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVEN TORNADO POTENTIAL.  
   
   
   HAVING SAID THAT...POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS
   QUESTIONABLE...AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY
   REGION.  THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW...INITIALLY OVER THE KS/OK
   VICINITY...IS ALSO PROGGED TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY...MOVING NEWD INTO NRN MO/SRN IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
   TRAILING SWD...A WEAK/ILL-DEFINED TROUGH/FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
   EWD INTO WRN AR/ERN TX THROUGH THE DAY...LARGELY WASHING OUT DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE PARENT LOW SHIFTS NEWD.  THE
   LATEST HI-RES WRF RUN -- LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF A SURFACE FOCUS
   -- DOES NOT INITIATE APPRECIABLE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS REGION AFTER
   EARLIER/WARM ADVECTION-TYPE CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD/NEWD AWAY FROM THE
   AREA.  WHILE NAM/GFS RUNS DO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   REGION...AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT -- WHICH HINTS AT ONLY ISOLATED
   COVERAGE.
   
   GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE WEATHER
   PROBABILITIES...AS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR/DEGREE OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A CONCERN.  IF GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
   DEEP/SUSTAINED CONVECTION OCCURS THAN WHAT IS FORECAST...THE
   KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO
   SLIGHT RISK.
   
   ...FAR ERN KS AND ADJACENT WRN AND CENTRAL MO...
   COOL AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD PROVIDE
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
   ACROSS THIS REGION.  HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
   REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...GIVEN
   A RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST SURFACE DEWPOINTS. 
   WHILE A STRONGER CELL OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE A
   COLD AIR FUNNEL OR EVEN BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO...THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
   ATTM.
   
   ..GOSS.. 03/10/2010