NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Apr 4, 2020 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 4 00:55:39 UTC 2020
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 040055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020

   Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   SOUTH TEXAS AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be
   possible this evening across south Texas and in parts of the Texas
   Coastal Plains.

   ...South Texas/Texas Coastal Plains...
   Latest water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture
   extending from northern Mexico into the southern plains with an MCS
   ongoing withing the plume across south-central Texas. At the
   surface, a cold front is located from near Eagle Pass, Texas
   extending east-northeastward across the southern Texas Hill Country.
   MUCAPE just to the north of the front is estimated by the RAP to be
   between 1000 and 1500 J/kg. This combined with effective shear of 50
   of 60 kt will continue to be favorable for isolated large hail and
   strong wind gusts. The threat should be more marginal with
   northeastward extent due to a drop off in instability across the
   middle to upper Texas Coastal Plains.

   Along and to the south of the cold front, the RAP is showing
   moderate to strong instability with MLCAPE generally in the 2000 to
   3000 J/kg range. WSR-88D VWPs across south Texas have 0-6 km shear
   in the 60 to 70 kt range which should support continued supercell
   development. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates of 7.0
   to 7.5 C/km, should be favorable for large hail with the stronger
   updrafts. The more dominant supercells may produce hailstones
   greater than 2 inches in diameter.

   The severe threat should continue along and just ahead of the cold
   front across south Texas this evening. An isolated severe threat
   will also be possible in far south Texas during the early overnight
   period as cells move east-southeastward out of northern Mexico. Hail
   and strong wind gusts will be possible with these storms.

   ..Broyles.. 04/04/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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