NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1 Convective Outlook

Apr 12, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 12 12:48:46 UTC 2024
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Overview Overview

 Forecast Discussion - Day 1 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 121248

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0748 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

   Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND FAR WESTERN
   MONTANA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms
   over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana
   late this afternoon and early evening.

   ...Northern Nevada into Eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Far Western
   Montana...
   An upper low over the eastern Pacific will dig southward towards the
   northern/central CA Coast through tonight, with a belt of moderately
   enhanced flow extending over parts of the Northwest. Low-level
   moisture across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies
   is expected to remain quite meager, with PW values generally around
   0.7 inch or less. Even so, daytime heating should encourage a very
   well-mixed boundary layer to develop by later this afternoon as a
   surface low consolidates over northern NV. Isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms should develop this afternoon from parts of northern
   NV and eastern OR into ID and eventually western MT. With up to 500
   J/kg of MLCAPE present amid sufficient deep-layer for some updraft
   organization, some of this activity could become strong to severe.
   Isolated severe wind gusts may occur with any convective downdrafts,
   as low/mid-level lapse rates will likely be quite steep. Occasional
   hail also appears possible with the more robust cores. Convection
   should weaken this evening with eastward extent into ID/western MT
   with the loss of daytime heating.

   ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...
   Low-topped thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this
   morning into the afternoon across parts of the Northeast. Poor lapse
   rates, weak buoyancy, and generally meridional flow at low/mid
   levels across eastern NY into parts of southern New England will
   likely hinder an organized severe threat from developing.

   A separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across
   parts of the OH Valley into the central Appalachians and perhaps
   Carolinas. This activity will be tied to cold mid-level temperatures
   associated with a shortwave trough embedded within a broad upper
   trough/low over the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly
   flow behind a front, instability should remain very weak. Still,
   enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface with a well-mixed
   boundary layer, and occasional strong/gusty winds could occur this
   afternoon.

   ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/12/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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