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Central Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Central Pacific Data and Image courtesy of Central Pacific Hurricane Center






Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061119
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
southwestern Mexico.

1. Offshore of Central America/Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
coast of Central America is forecast to produce an area of low
pressure southwest of the coast of southern Mexico toward the end of
the week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Summary for Hurricane Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)

...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...
 As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 6
 the center of Bonnie was located near 16.1, -109.0
 with movement W at 12 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 970 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Hurricane Bonnie Public Advisory Number 36

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

496 
WTPZ34 KNHC 061446
TCPEP4
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bonnie is moving
a little slower toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A westward 
to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with an 
increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Slight fluctuations in strength are possible 
today.  Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later tonight 
continue through Saturday.  Bonnie is expected to become a 
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through today. These swells 
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current 
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 36

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022  

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 061444
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022
1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
 

Hurricane Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 36

Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022  

751 
WTPZ44 KNHC 061449
TCDEP4
 
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
 
There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's 
inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first 
light visible imagery.  A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a 
partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through 
southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie 
attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top 
temperatures.  The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this 
advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity 
estimates.  Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all 
quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and 
subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast.
 
The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to 
make a comeback.  This sudden intensification is expected to be 
temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on 
Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface 
temperatures.  Dry, stable environmental conditions will also 
contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend.  The 
NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is 
based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid.  
Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier, 
and open into a trough of low pressure early next week.
 
Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly 
mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north.  There 
are no changes to the forecast track philosophy.  The cyclone 
should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion 
with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday.  The 
official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory 
and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus.
 
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico 
today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 

Hurricane Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36

Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022


101 
FOPZ14 KNHC 061447
PWSEP4
                                                                    
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  36                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042022               
1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 110W       34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 110W       34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  2   4( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   9(10)  51(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 115W       34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
20N 115W       34  X   3( 3)   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
15N 120W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
20N 120W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  10(23)   X(23)   X(23)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   1(22)   X(22)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   X(12)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  

Hurricane Bonnie Graphics


Hurricane Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 14:52:10 GMT

Hurricane Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Jul 2022 15:22:39 GMT




Images and Forecasts Courtesy of the National Hurricane Center,
Script by SE Lincoln Weather.

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