Eastern Pacific Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
This product is updated at approximately 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM PST from May 15 to November 30.
Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Bonnie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of
southwestern Mexico.
1. Offshore of Central America/Mexico:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
coast of Central America is forecast to produce an area of low
pressure southwest of the coast of southern Mexico toward the end of
the week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form over the weekend while the system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...
As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Jul 6
the center of Bonnie was located near 16.1, -109.0
with movement W at 12 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 970 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
496
WTPZ34 KNHC 061446
TCPEP4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Bonnie Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
...RESILIENT BONNIE RESTRENGTHENS...
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 109.0W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Bonnie was located
near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 109.0 West. Bonnie is moving
a little slower toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion is forecast through the week with an
increase in forward speed beginning on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slight fluctuations in strength are possible
today. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence later tonight
continue through Saturday. Bonnie is expected to become a
post-tropical cyclone in a few days.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Bonnie will continue to affect portions
of the coast of southwestern Mexico through today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
000
WTPZ24 KNHC 061444
TCMEP4
HURRICANE BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 109.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.9W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.4W
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 108.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
751
WTPZ44 KNHC 061449
TCDEP4
Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022
There's been quite a bit of improvement this morning in Bonnie's
inner core structure and a cloud-filled eye reappeared in first
light visible imagery. A 1216 UTC SSMI/S microwave pass revealed a
partial eyewall with about 70 percent coverage in the north through
southwest quadrants and recent enhanced infrared images show Bonnie
attempting to close off a white ring with -77C cloud top
temperatures. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this
advisory, in accordance with the subjective satellite intensity
estimates. Bonnie's surface wind profile has been reduced in all
quadrants based on a 0448 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass and
subsequently has been adjusted downward in the forecast.
The predicted decrease in vertical wind shear has allowed Bonnie to
make a comeback. This sudden intensification is expected to be
temporary, however, and Bonnie should begin to weaken slowly on
Thursday while it begins its track over decreasing oceanic surface
temperatures. Dry, stable environmental conditions will also
contribute to its eventual dissipation by late this weekend. The
NHC forecast is again adjusted downward from the previous one and is
based mainly on the global models and the IVCN intensity aid.
Bonnie should degenerate to a remnant low in 4 days, if not earlier,
and open into a trough of low pressure early next week.
Bonnie's moving westward, or 280/10 kt within the westerly
mid-level steering flow of a subtropical ridge to the north. There
are no changes to the forecast track philosophy. The cyclone
should continue on a westward to west-northwestward fashion
with an increase in forward speed commencing Thursday. The
official forecast is essentially the same as last night's advisory
and agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus.
Although Bonnie will be moving farther away from the southwestern
coast of Mexico, rough surf and the potential for rip currents will
continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico
today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 16.1N 108.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 115.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 119.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 18.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.2N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 10/1200Z 19.4N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Roberts
101
FOPZ14 KNHC 061447
PWSEP4
HURRICANE BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022
1500 UTC WED JUL 06 2022
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 9(10) 51(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 10(23) X(23) X(23)
20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22)
20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
Air Quality
