Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun Jul 12 00:35:03 UTC 2020

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MD1193 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1193
Issued: 12/0017 UTC
Until: 12/0115 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359...
MD1192 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1192
Issued: 12/0000 UTC
Until: 12/0130 UTC
Concerning: TORNADO WATCH 358...

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  • SPC MD 1193

    Sun, 12 Jul 2020 00:18:02 +0000 UTC

    MD 1193 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... FOR EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
    MD 1193 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 1193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...eastern Iowa into central Illinois

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...

Valid 120017Z - 120115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain likely with
a complex of strong thunderstorms moving into western Illinois this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Numerous reports of severe wind gusts and large hail
have occurred across the western portions of WW359 over the last
several hours. The cluster of multicell and occasional supercells is
ongoing ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and jet max across the
upper Midwest and central Plains. Height falls ahead of the
approaching trough will help to maintain the already destabilized
airmass ahead of the ongoing storms. MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and
30-40 kt of effective shear across Illinois will likely continue to
support robust updraft development/ organization over the next
several hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and deep
updrafts from the strong buoyancy will support large hail growth
with the stronger storms. However, it appears likely that upscale
growth and storm interactions will shift the primary severe threat
toward damaging winds later this evening. A few significant wind
gusts may also be possible with any small bowing segments that can
develop. 

Earlier day convection across Indiana may serve to limit the
eastward extent of the severe threat where convective overturning
has taken place. However, a reservoir of deeper moisture and
stronger buoyancy remains in place to the immediate south and west
of the more stable air. Increasing ascent from the approaching
trough and weak low-level warm advection may be sufficient to
destabilize the airmass enough to support a continued severe threat
later this evening. Convective trends will be monitored for a
possible watch downstream of 359.

..Lyons/Hart.. 07/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

LAT...LON   42669214 40829218 39518747 41078775 41618844 42669214
    Read more

  • SPC MD 1192

    Sun, 12 Jul 2020 00:20:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358... FOR SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST AR
    MD 1192 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Southeat KS...Southwest MO...Northeast
OK...Northwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 358...

Valid 120000Z - 120130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 358 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will sag south into northeast
Oklahoma over the next hour. Hail and wind can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm updrafts are gradually
strengthening/deepening within an expanding cluster over southeast
KS. This activity has drifted south along the eastern edge of an
intense instability plume characterized by 5000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Earlier updrafts struggled a bit across east-central KS, but cloud
top venting appears stronger over the last hour or so. Additionally,
very large hail is likely occurring with these storms. There is
increasing confidence that an expanding cluster of storms will
emerge, along with a possible notable cold pool. If so, at some
point the forward propagation may begin to increase and the wind
threat would necessarily increase as well.

Local watch extension, or a new watch, may be needed across eastern
OK and northwest AR.

..Darrow.. 07/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37749582 37079469 36129433 36009552 37509638 37749582
    Read more
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