Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun Oct 24 22:49:02 UTC 2021

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image Mesoscale Discussion #1893 Mesoscale Discussion #1892
MD1893 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1893
Issued: 24/2225 UTC
Until: 25/0030 UTC
Concerning: TORNADO WATCH 531...

MD1892 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1892
Issued: 24/2211 UTC
Until: 25/0045 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

  All times are UTC

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  • SPC MD 1893

    Sun, 24 Oct 2021 22:26:05 +0000 UTC

    MD 1893 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 531... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
    MD 1893 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1893
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0525 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
    
    Areas affected...portions of western into central Missouri
    
    Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...
    
    Valid 242225Z - 250030Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.
    
    SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms, including tornadoes,
    continues across Tornado Watch 0531 in central MO, and is expected
    to persist through the remainder of the evening. The greatest short
    term threat is associated with storms immediately ahead of the cold
    front and in proximity to the warm front, though the severe threat
    may increase further south with time.
    
    DISCUSSION...Multiple sustained semi-discrete supercell structures
    are in progress across portions of north-central into central MO
    immediately ahead of a cold front and within proximity to a diffuse
    warm front. In addition, storms are also attempting to mature
    further south along the cold front into southwest MO, as well as
    with a second confluence zone east of SGF. Tornadoes have been
    reported over the past few hours across northern/central MO with
    storms closer to the warm front, where latest METAR observations
    depict more backed surface flow. These storms have the greatest
    threat of continued tornado potential in the short term. 
    
    The low-level jet is expected to intensify going into the evening
    hours across portions of central into eastern MO. 2154Z SGF VWP
    showed over 200 m2/s2 SRH, and these values are expected to
    gradually increase this evening. As such, a tornado threat may
    develop with any sustained supercell structures that manage to
    develop in southern MO. In addition, severe hail and damaging
    rear-flank downdraft winds may also accompany any mature supercells
    as well.
    
    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/24/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...
    
    LAT...LON   37229123 37009191 36959239 37079369 37299445 37989380
                38819329 39769332 40229324 40349240 40219189 40039150
                39729130 39009083 38469093 37809119 37229123 
    
    
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  • SPC MD 1892

    Sun, 24 Oct 2021 22:11:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
    MD 1892 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1892
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0511 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
    
    Areas affected...much of central and southwestern Illinois
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 
    
    Valid 242211Z - 250045Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
    
    SUMMARY...Severe storms including damaging wind and tornadoes are
    possible along the warm front into central Illinois, and with other
    storms forming along and ahead of the cold front later this evening
    into southern Illinois and vicinity.
    
    DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently straddles the warm front,
    extending from northern IL into northeast MO. Southern parts of this
    line near Pike County MO are showing signs of organization and
    rotation, and are close to the warm front. A moist and unstable air
    mass exists near this boundary, and favorably strong shear may
    result in damaging winds and tornadoes as it treks east/northeast
    where 0-1 SRH exceed 200 m2/s2. To the northeast, parts of
    east/northeast IL may experience destabilization later this evening
    as the low levels jet continues to mix the boundary layer. Farther
    south, a pre-frontal band of storms over south-central MO may
    eventually become better organized with shear favoring supercells
    and/or QLCS structures.
    
    ..Jewell/Hart.. 10/24/2021
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
    
    LAT...LON   39878736 38608821 37938947 37928984 38309034 39229085
                39549096 39859081 40289014 40638953 40958859 41048807
                40948764 40798748 40318736 39878736 
    
    
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