Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun Oct 24 22:49:02 UTC 2021

Valid MD Image
MD Legend Image Mesoscale Discussion #1893 Mesoscale Discussion #1892
MD1893 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1893
Issued: 24/2225 UTC
Until: 25/0030 UTC
Concerning: TORNADO WATCH 531...
MD1892 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1892
Issued: 24/2211 UTC
Until: 25/0045 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

  All times are UTC

Notice:  The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice. Archived Mesoscale Discussions
To view mesoscale discussions for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 20040529 for May 29, 2004). Data available since January 1, 2004.


 RSS Feed - SPC Mesoscale Discussions
 Storm Prediction Center
  • SPC MD 1893

    Sun, 24 Oct 2021 22:26:05 +0000 UTC

    MD 1893 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 531... FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI
    MD 1893 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0525 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Areas affected...portions of western into central Missouri

Concerning...Tornado Watch 531...

Valid 242225Z - 250030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 531 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms, including tornadoes,
continues across Tornado Watch 0531 in central MO, and is expected
to persist through the remainder of the evening. The greatest short
term threat is associated with storms immediately ahead of the cold
front and in proximity to the warm front, though the severe threat
may increase further south with time.

DISCUSSION...Multiple sustained semi-discrete supercell structures
are in progress across portions of north-central into central MO
immediately ahead of a cold front and within proximity to a diffuse
warm front. In addition, storms are also attempting to mature
further south along the cold front into southwest MO, as well as
with a second confluence zone east of SGF. Tornadoes have been
reported over the past few hours across northern/central MO with
storms closer to the warm front, where latest METAR observations
depict more backed surface flow. These storms have the greatest
threat of continued tornado potential in the short term. 

The low-level jet is expected to intensify going into the evening
hours across portions of central into eastern MO. 2154Z SGF VWP
showed over 200 m2/s2 SRH, and these values are expected to
gradually increase this evening. As such, a tornado threat may
develop with any sustained supercell structures that manage to
develop in southern MO. In addition, severe hail and damaging
rear-flank downdraft winds may also accompany any mature supercells
as well.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 10/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...

LAT...LON   37229123 37009191 36959239 37079369 37299445 37989380
            38819329 39769332 40229324 40349240 40219189 40039150
            39729130 39009083 38469093 37809119 37229123
    Read more

  • SPC MD 1892

    Sun, 24 Oct 2021 22:11:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 1892 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS
    MD 1892 Image

    
Mesoscale Discussion 1892
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021

Areas affected...much of central and southwestern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 242211Z - 250045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms including damaging wind and tornadoes are
possible along the warm front into central Illinois, and with other
storms forming along and ahead of the cold front later this evening
into southern Illinois and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A line of storms currently straddles the warm front,
extending from northern IL into northeast MO. Southern parts of this
line near Pike County MO are showing signs of organization and
rotation, and are close to the warm front. A moist and unstable air
mass exists near this boundary, and favorably strong shear may
result in damaging winds and tornadoes as it treks east/northeast
where 0-1 SRH exceed 200 m2/s2. To the northeast, parts of
east/northeast IL may experience destabilization later this evening
as the low levels jet continues to mix the boundary layer. Farther
south, a pre-frontal band of storms over south-central MO may
eventually become better organized with shear favoring supercells
and/or QLCS structures.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/24/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   39878736 38608821 37938947 37928984 38309034 39229085
            39549096 39859081 40289014 40638953 40958859 41048807
            40948764 40798748 40318736 39878736
    Read more
   NWS Current Mesoscale Discussions
powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00 Top Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2021 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet