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Updated:  Sun May 19 17:18:03 UTC 2019

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MD0686 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0686
Issued: 19/1651 UTC
Until: 19/1845 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

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  • SPC MD 686

    Sun, 19 May 2019 16:52:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 0686 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
    MD 0686 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0686
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1151 AM CDT Sun May 19 2019
    
    Areas affected...Much of Upstate New York
    
    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 
    
    Valid 191651Z - 191845Z
    
    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
    
    SUMMARY...There appears increasing potential for strong to severe
    storm development across the region through 4-6 PM EDT.  Trends are
    being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch within
    the next hour or two.
    
    DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection along a stalling frontal zone,
    perhaps aided by convergence near the lake breeze, appears to have
    provided the support for thunderstorm initiation near the southern
    Lake Ontario coast.  Further intensification and upscale growth of
    this convection appears possible during the next few hours,
    supported by inflow of increasingly unstable air emanating from a
    destabilizing boundary layer to the south of the front.  With
    further insolation, models suggest that mixed-layer CAPE near the
    front may increase from 500 J/kg to in excess of 1000-1500 J/kg by
    20-22Z.
    
    Embedded within sheared, 30-40 kt southwesterly to westerly deep
    layer mean ambient flow, potential exists for the evolution of a
    small but increasingly organized convective system as activity
    spreads into/through the Adirondacks vicinity and portions of the
    Mohawk Valley later this afternoon.  This probably will be
    accompanied by at least some risk for hail and potentially damaging
    surface gusts.  
    
    Additional thunderstorms may gradually initiate across the higher
    terrain of the Southern Tier of New York through the afternoon. 
    However, potential coverage across this area is more unclear and may
    remain fairly isolated.
    
    ..Kerr/Hart.. 05/19/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...
    
    LAT...LON   42797796 43087745 43267658 43937565 44177332 42867375
                42027504 41907743 42057801 42797796 
    
    
    Read more

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