Current Mesoscale Discussions
Updated:  Sun Jul 12 00:35:03 UTC 2020

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MD1193 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1193
Issued: 12/0017 UTC
Until: 12/0115 UTC
Concerning: SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359...

MD1192 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #1192
Issued: 12/0000 UTC
Until: 12/0130 UTC
Concerning: TORNADO WATCH 358...

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  • SPC MD 1193

    Sun, 12 Jul 2020 00:18:02 +0000 UTC

    MD 1193 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 359... FOR EASTERN IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS
    MD 1193 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1193
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0717 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
    
    Areas affected...eastern Iowa into central Illinois
    
    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...
    
    Valid 120017Z - 120115Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359
    continues.
    
    SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts and large hail will remain likely with
    a complex of strong thunderstorms moving into western Illinois this
    evening.
    
    DISCUSSION...Numerous reports of severe wind gusts and large hail
    have occurred across the western portions of WW359 over the last
    several hours. The cluster of multicell and occasional supercells is
    ongoing ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and jet max across the
    upper Midwest and central Plains. Height falls ahead of the
    approaching trough will help to maintain the already destabilized
    airmass ahead of the ongoing storms. MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg and
    30-40 kt of effective shear across Illinois will likely continue to
    support robust updraft development/ organization over the next
    several hours. Steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km and deep
    updrafts from the strong buoyancy will support large hail growth
    with the stronger storms. However, it appears likely that upscale
    growth and storm interactions will shift the primary severe threat
    toward damaging winds later this evening. A few significant wind
    gusts may also be possible with any small bowing segments that can
    develop. 
    
    Earlier day convection across Indiana may serve to limit the
    eastward extent of the severe threat where convective overturning
    has taken place. However, a reservoir of deeper moisture and
    stronger buoyancy remains in place to the immediate south and west
    of the more stable air. Increasing ascent from the approaching
    trough and weak low-level warm advection may be sufficient to
    destabilize the airmass enough to support a continued severe threat
    later this evening. Convective trends will be monitored for a
    possible watch downstream of 359.
    
    ..Lyons/Hart.. 07/12/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
    
    LAT...LON   42669214 40829218 39518747 41078775 41618844 42669214 
    
    
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  • SPC MD 1192

    Sun, 12 Jul 2020 00:20:04 +0000 UTC

    MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358... FOR SOUTHEAST KS...SOUTHWEST MO...NORTHEAST OK...NORTHWEST AR
    MD 1192 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 1192
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0700 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
    
    Areas affected...Southeat KS...Southwest MO...Northeast
    OK...Northwest AR
    
    Concerning...Tornado Watch 358...
    
    Valid 120000Z - 120130Z
    
    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 358 continues.
    
    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will sag south into northeast
    Oklahoma over the next hour. Hail and wind can be expected.
    
    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm updrafts are gradually
    strengthening/deepening within an expanding cluster over southeast
    KS. This activity has drifted south along the eastern edge of an
    intense instability plume characterized by 5000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE.
    Earlier updrafts struggled a bit across east-central KS, but cloud
    top venting appears stronger over the last hour or so. Additionally,
    very large hail is likely occurring with these storms. There is
    increasing confidence that an expanding cluster of storms will
    emerge, along with a possible notable cold pool. If so, at some
    point the forward propagation may begin to increase and the wind
    threat would necessarily increase as well.
    
    Local watch extension, or a new watch, may be needed across eastern
    OK and northwest AR.
    
    ..Darrow.. 07/12/2020
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...
    
    LAT...LON   37749582 37079469 36129433 36009552 37509638 37749582 
    
    
    Read more

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