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Updated:  Wed Feb 20 03:57:03 UTC 2019

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MD0110 Thumbnail Image Mesoscale Discussion #0110
Issued: 20/0220 UTC
Until: 20/0715 UTC
Concerning: WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

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  • SPC MD 110

    Wed, 20 Feb 2019 02:21:03 +0000 UTC

    MD 0110 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR CENTRAL MISSOURI
    MD 0110 Image

    
    Mesoscale Discussion 0110
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0820 PM CST Tue Feb 19 2019
    
    Areas affected...Central Missouri
    
    Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 
    
    Valid 200220Z - 200715Z
    
    SUMMARY...Wintry mixed precipitation expected across the area,
    beginning with freezing rain/sleet, then transitioning to mainly
    rain, from south to north. Some areas may experience brief periods
    of heavier freezing rain, with rates up to .05 in/hr. Farther
    northwest, snow will be the main precipitation type, with brief
    bursts of heavy snow possible.
    
    DISCUSSION...A mid-level vort max embedded within a larger scale
    upper-level shortwave trough is currently traversing the area, that
    in tandem with strong surface-700 mb WAA, is providing deep-layer
    ascent to the region. Tropospheric profiles are mainly below
    freezing (per RAP forecast soundings), though the aforementioned WAA
    has encouraged temperatures warming to/slightly above 0C around 850
    mb, north of the surface wet-bulb 0C line. As such, most dendrites
    are expected to melt around 850 mb, before refreezing as ice pellets
    in the lowest 100 mb or reaching the surface as freezing rain. 
    
    KSGF and KEAX dual-polarimetric radar data suggests that much of the
    precipitation, concentrated within a northwest-to-southeast oriented
    band, is falling as sleet, though multiple ASOS stations across
    southern Missouri are also reporting ice accretion rates over .05
    in/hr. As such, brief bouts of heavier freezing rain are also
    possible in addition to sleet. Farther northwest towards the Kansas
    City Metropolitan area, vertical profiles (via RAP forest soundings)
    are colder then points farther southeast, where snow will likely
    remain the predominant precipitation type, even with the strong WAA
    present. Brief periods of heavy snow cannot be ruled out.
    
    As WAA will continue across the region this evening, surface
    temperatures are expected to slowly warm with time,
    approaching/rising above the freezing mark, where a transition to
    mainly rain can be expected, beginning with the southern most
    portions of the discussion area and spreading northward with time.
    
    ..Squitieri.. 02/20/2019
    
    ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
    
    ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...
    
    LAT...LON   37509133 37549230 37969374 38369425 39389484 39939458
                40329358 40249278 39809178 39249122 38009063 37509133 
    
    
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