NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 19 16:18:03 UTC 2018
Oct 19, 2018 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 2,412 1,327,622 Santa Clarita, CA...Pasadena, CA...Simi Valley, CA...Burbank, CA...Baldwin Park, CA...
   FNUS21 KWNS 191616

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1116 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

   Valid 191700Z - 201200Z


   Much of the current forecast remains on track. Though modest RH
   recovery has been observed early this morning, -5 mb pressure
   gradients have recently been observed within the LAX vicinity within
   the past few hours, with latest model guidance suggesting 15-25 mph
   sustained surface winds persisting in terrain-favored areas through
   the afternoon/early evening hours. Simultaneously, temperatures are
   expected to reach the mid 70s across the elevated/critical
   delineated areas, with RH becoming near-critical to critically low
   with the heating of the afternoon. For these reasons, the critical
   and elevated delineations have remained unchanged.

   ..Squitieri.. 10/19/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

   The greatest fire weather concerns today will reside across portions
   of southern California, where a strong (1028 mb) high pressure area
   over the Great Basin will combine with weak surface troughing
   along/just west of the California coast to produce offshore winds. 
   Elsewhere, relatively cool and wet conditions along with unfavorable
   fuel states will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum.

   ...Southern California...
   The aforementioned offshore flow pattern will result in areas of
   15-30 mph northeasterly surface winds amidst a dry surface airmass. 
   This surface flow will be slightly stronger in terrain-favored
   areas, and will combine with areas of dry fuels and critically low
   RH values to foster rapid fire spread.  Latest model guidance
   suggests that an areas of slightly stronger surface flow will
   persist through the mid-morning areas across portions of Ventura and
   Los Angeles Counties through mid/late morning, lending some
   confidence that critical surface wind thresholds will be met in
   these areas.  A critical area has been introduced as a result. 
   Farther south, spotty critical fire weather conditions will occur,
   although on a less-widespread basis, with elevated fire weather
   conditions being more common.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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