NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 10 16:19:03 UTC 2020
Jul 10, 2020 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 29,374 207,161 Casper, WY...Laramie, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Rawlins, WY...Lander, WY...
   FNUS21 KWNS 101618

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1118 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Valid 101700Z - 111200Z


   No changes to the ongoing forecast. By late afternoon and early
   evening, a cold front will impact northern portions of the
   elevate/critical area. Post-frontal winds will shift to northerly
   and may be gusty. Very isolated dry thunderstorms are possible
   within the Mogollon Rim. However, temperatures around -4 C near 500
   mb on the observed 12Z FGZ and PHX sounding do not suggest more than
   a storm or two will initiate this afternoon. Highlights will
   continue to be withheld given coverage concerns, though any
   lightning that occurs has potential to ignite fires given the very
   dry fuels. See the previous discussion for more details.

   ..Wendt.. 07/10/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020/

   A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to continue developing
   over the Southwest and Four Corners regions today, as a shortwave
   trough over the central Rockies will eject eastward onto the High
   Plains. At the surface, to the west of a sharpening lee trough, dry
   and windy conditions are likely to develop along of the Front Range
   into eastern/central Wyoming. At the same time, a cold front will
   sag south through portions of western South Dakota with a cooler and
   more moist boundary layer expected to the north of the front. Across
   the eastern US, A second shortwave trough and the upper-level
   influence of Tropical Storm Fay will dominate the forecast. Abundant
   precipitation and relatively weak flow will likely limit the
   potential for widespread fire weather conditions.

   ...Southern and central Wyoming onto the High Plains...
   Increasing mid-level flow is expected to develop ahead of the
   ejecting shortwave trough over the central Rockies and adjacent High
   Plains this afternoon and evening. Surface pressure falls are
   forecast to increase along a develop lee trough across the Front
   Range of eastern Wyoming. Here, westerly downslope flow along with
   strong heating of the boundary layer will likely support single
   digit RH across much of eastern Wyoming and into portions of
   southwestern South Dakota and the Nebraska Panhandle. Model forecast
   soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer, to around 700 mb,
   intersecting with the increasing flow aloft. Gusty surface winds of
   30-35 mph appear likely, aided by momentum transfer and the
   strengthening pressure gradient associated with the lee trough. The
   combination of very dry surface conditions, gusty winds, and
   receptive fuels will likely support critical fire weather conditions
   across the area.

   The potential for elevated conditions exists further southwest into
   the Great Basin region underneath the ridge. However, this area
   should be displaced from stronger flow aloft and the resulting
   low-level mass response. This suggests that only locally elevated
   conditions will be likely, and no additional areas were added.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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