NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
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Aug 23, 2017 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Dry Tstm 37,429 280,586 Bend, OR...Altamont, OR...Klamath Falls, OR...Redmond, OR...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 230645

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OREGON...

   ...Synopsis...
   As an upper trough/low moves over BC by late tonight, the
   large-scale upper ridge over much of the western CONUS will begin to
   shift eastward through the period. A weak upper low off the coast of
   CA is forecast to advance eastward over southern CA by early
   Thursday morning. Mid-level moisture emanating from the Southwest
   monsoon will develop farther northward into portions of the northern
   Great Basin/Rockies and interior Pacific Northwest, supporting
   isolated to scattered thunderstorms across these regions this
   afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough approaches the Pacific
   Northwest from the eastern Pacific.

   ...Portions of the Northern Great Basin/Rockies and Pacific
   Northwest: Dry Thunderstorm Threat...
   The glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated with the
   previously mentioned shortwave trough from the eastern Pacific and
   terrain-driven circulations will likely foster isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms across portions of the northern Great Basin and
   Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies. While precipitable
   water values are forecast to increase along and east of Cascade
   crest this afternoon, they should still be sufficiently marginal
   (0.7-1.0 inch), coupled with a dry/well-mixed sub-cloud layer, to
   support dry thunderstorm potential. Mid-level southwesterly flow is
   also forecast to modestly strengthen to around 20 kt across
   central/eastern OR into southeastern WA and parts of ID, which
   should promote northeasterly storm motions and limit substantial
   wetting rainfall potential. A broad isolated dry thunderstorm area
   has been continued across these regions to account for this
   convective fire weather threat, as fuels remain very dry and
   receptive to large fire starts. Confidence has increased in
   scattered thunderstorm coverage across parts of central/eastern OR
   today, and a scattered dry thunderstorm area has been introduced
   across this area given the near-record dry/very receptive fuels
   combined with abundant lightning expected.

   ...Portions of the Northern Rockies and Adjacent High Plains:
   Wind/RH Threat...
   A modest increase in westerly mid-level flow will occur today across
   parts of northern MT along/east of the Rockies. Westerly downslope
   winds around 15 mph will warm/dry the low levels, with RH values of
   15-20% expected by this afternoon. Some locally stronger wind gusts
   may also be possible along the higher terrain. With dry fuels in
   place, an elevated area has been introduced for a small portion of
   northern MT to account for this gusty wind/lowered RH threat.

   ..Gleason.. 08/23/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)
      


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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