Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
   FNUS21 KWNS 071617
   
   DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
   
   VALID 071700Z - 081200Z
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN MD...AND
   CNTRL/SWRN PA...
   
   ...PORTIONS OF NRN WV...WRN MD...CNTRL/SWRN PA...
   INTENSE S/W TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION TODAY...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG SWLY WIND FIELDS /20-40 KT AT
   850 MB...40-60 KT AT 700 MB/ SPREADING INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU
   REGION AND ADJACENT APPALACHIAN MTNS. AS A RESULT...SUSTAINED WIND
   SPEEDS AROUND 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NRN
   WV...WRN MD...AND CNTRL/SWRN PA. MEANWHILE...DRY AIR EVIDENT IN AREA
   12Z RAOBS AS WELL AS GPS TPW DATA RESIDES AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
   FRONT THAT EXTENDED SWD OUT OF LWR MI INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
   AT 16Z. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S F...THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
   SUPPORT MIN RH VALUES BELOW 30 PERCENT. DUE TO THE EXPECTED
   WARM/DRY/WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH RECENT DRYNESS...CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT...
   FAIRLY ROBUST NWD MOISTURE SURGE IS OCCURRING THIS
   MORNING...SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SRN NV AND NWRN AZ.
   AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS D1 FORECAST...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
   LEAD TO MARGINAL RH VALUES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
   THE REGION. IN ADDITION...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUSTAINED
   WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE UN-SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTLOOK
   AREA. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
   FORECAST.
   
   ...SERN LOWER MI...
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ...ERN CO...
   LOW-LEVEL S-SELY FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN STRENGTH AS AN
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WIND SPEEDS MAY REACH 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING...WHILE RH
   VALUES DIP INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF ANY CRITICAL
   FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MAY DEVELOP DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT AN
   OUTLOOK AREA ATTM.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/07/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0337 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL
   TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED.
   ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES AND MIDWEST REACHING LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY
   EVENING. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD
   ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA.
   
   ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV...
   LOCALIZED/MODEST-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH
   APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW.
   LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE
   AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
   CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30 TO 40 MPH FLOW AT 700 MB
   WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE
   COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW
   HOURS...PRIOR TO MOISTENING/COOLING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY EVENING.
   
   ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT...
   A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   CNTRL/ERN NV DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
   PACIFIC NW. A SURGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH 30S/40S SURFACE DEW POINTS
   BECOMING COMMON ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
   INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS
   WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE AT
   PEAK HEATING...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY TRANSITION TO WET WITH CONTINUED
   MOISTENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL NV...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH
   /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH
   SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE
   SWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM.
   
   ...SERN LOWER MI...
   CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC
   DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO SWRN
   ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW
   HOURS /NEAR 25 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS DURING
   THE EARLY EVENING. WITH 40 TO 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS...SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 MPH WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
   GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DESPITE
   BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...FUEL
   CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MARGINAL...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO
   DTX...AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT.
   
   ...CNTRL/NRN WV...CNTRL PA...WRN MD...
   AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
   WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A SW TO NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
   SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /AROUND 15
   MPH/...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING
   THROUGH THE 80S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30
   PERCENT...ALTHOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN
   THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
      

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 071620
   
   DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010
   
   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR
   
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ...
   
   ...ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ...
   LATEST OPERATIONAL NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN FORECASTING A LARGE
   AREA OF CRITICAL RH /AOB 15 PERCENT/ AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
   /AROUND 20-25 MPH AND GUSTS AOA 30 MPH/ OVER THE REGION...WHILE GFS
   AND NAMKF INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS /MAX SPEEDS
   AROUND 20 MPH WITH LOWER GUST POTENTIAL/ AND HIGHER RH VALUES /15-20
   PERCENT/. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS D2 FORECAST...THE EWD EXTENT
   OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS IS ALSO IN QUESTION...AND THE MAGNITUDE AND
   SUBSEQUENT IMPACT FROM D1 RAINFALL MAY NEGATIVELY INFLUENCE D2
   MIXING HEIGHTS AND MIN RH VALUES. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...NO
   CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE CRITICAL AREA ATTM...BUT ADJUSTMENTS MAY
   BE REQUIRED DURING THE NEXT D1 OUTLOOK.
   
   ...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...CNTRL MD...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE...NRN VA...D.C....
   NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
   
   ..GARNER.. 09/07/2010
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0457 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE WRN
   CONUS...WITH A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE
   OF THE TROUGH ACROSS CA INTO THE WRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY THU.
   PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT
   BY WED AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED SWWD TOWARDS
   THE SRN SIERRAS. IN THE EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
   DECELERATE AS IT PROGRESSES EWD FROM SRN ONTARIO INTO NEW ENGLAND.
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE NRN/CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS WED MORNING REACHING THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST
   BY WED AFTERNOON.
   
   ...ERN/SRN NV...WRN UT...NWRN AZ...
   A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATELY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL ENVELOP
   MUCH OF THE CNTRL/SRN GREAT BASIN BY WED AFTERNOON. DEEPLY MIXED
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL EXIST BETWEEN A COLD FRONT PUSHING
   ACROSS WRN NV AND RICHER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CENTERED ALONG THE
   LONGITUDE OF THE FOUR CORNERS. WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF
   20 TO 25 MPH /WITH AREAS NEAR 30 MPH/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE JUXTAPOSED
   WITH RH VALUES AOB 15 PERCENT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE ERN
   EXTENT OF LOW RH GIVEN MODERATE SPREAD AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
   THE DEGREE OF MIXING ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
   MOISTURE PLUME.
   
   ...FAR S-CNTRL/SERN PA...SRN NJ...NRN DE...CNTRL MD...ERN WV
   PANHANDLE...NRN VA...D.C....
   MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING WED
   AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE MORNING. A
   MODERATE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED
   SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO PERHAPS 30 MPH AS
   DEEPER MIXING ENSUES. 06Z NAM/00Z GFS FORECASTS ARE RATHER
   CONSISTENT WITH THE INDICATION OF RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20
   AND 30 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY WED...WELL
   BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
   PAST FEW WEEKS...SUPPORTIVE OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...