NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 29 16:41:02 UTC 2020
Nov 29, 2020 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 1 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 291639

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1039 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020

   Valid 291700Z - 301200Z

   ...Southern California...
   The previous forecast remains on track. Morning surface observations
   indicate elevated conditions ongoing across portions of southern CA,
   with locally critical conditions noted across the higher terrain of
   Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. Winds are expected to generally
   diminish this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens somewhat,
   though RH values will still remain critically low. Some nocturnal
   increase in winds is possible later tonight, which, combined with
   poor RH recovery, will result in a continuation of elevated to
   locally critical conditions into Monday morning. 

   ...Western Kansas...
   Locally elevated conditions will be possible this afternoon across
   western KS within a dry/breezy post-frontal regime, though the
   threat will be tempered to some extent by cool temperatures and
   marginal RH values. See the previous discussion below for more

   ..Dean.. 11/29/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Sun Nov 29 2020/

   The upper-level flow regime is expected to amplify through the day
   today, featuring a deepening trough across the eastern third of the
   US and continued upper-level ridging over much of the West. A surge
   of colder air and a strengthening surface high are expected across
   the Plains that will bring gusty winds and perhaps brief fire
   weather concerns for a few locations. Persistent offshore flow over
   southwest California will continue to support elevated fire weather

   ...Southern California...
   Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are expected to continue
   for today within the higher elevations of southern CA. Early morning
   surface observations show pockets of elevated conditions ongoing
   across the Santa Susana and western San Gabriel mountains. This is
   mainly due to the maintenance of an offshore pressure gradient that
   is associated with a surface high over the north/northeastern Great
   Basin that is forecast to largely remain in place for most of today.
   Poor overnight RH recoveries and little to no moisture return will
   support another day of RH values in the low teens and single digits.
   However, weak mid and upper-level winds will continue to limit the
   potential for elevated and/or brief critical conditions to just
   terrain-favored locations where winds may locally be stronger.

   ...Western Kansas...
   Winds are expected to increase behind a southward surging cold front
   later this afternoon across the Plains. Strong low-level cold
   advection will aid in mixing down 30-40 mph 850 mb winds to the
   surface across a broad swath of KS, OK, and the OK/TX Panhandles.
   Despite this, most guidance suggests that the cooler air will limit
   RH reductions for most of the region. A few locations across western
   KS may see periodic RH reductions to near 20% due to slightly drier
   air on the western periphery of the polar air mass. This idea is
   supported somewhat by upstream post-frontal observations that show
   dewpoints in the teens across the northern High Plains (versus 20-30
   F dewpoints to the east). However, given little support by most
   guidance, confidence in the coverage and duration of elevated fire
   weather conditions remains low and precludes the addition of a risk

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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