NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon May 16 16:45:04 UTC 2022
May 16, 2022 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 161644

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1144 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

   Valid 161700Z - 171200Z

   The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made
   with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below.

   ..Weinman.. 05/16/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0120 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/

   A midlevel ridge will begin to weaken today as a series of
   upper-level shortwave troughs move across parts of the
   central/southern Rockies. A weak surface low is expected to develop
   across the central High Plains, with a lee trough potentially
   extending southward into parts of NM and west TX.

   ...Parts of NM/CO into the central/southern High Plains...
   Gradually increasing low/midlevel flow will support sustained winds
   of 15-20 mph (locally higher) across much of NM/west TX into
   southern CO and parts of the High Plains. These winds, in
   conjunction with RH dropping below 15% across NM/west TX, and
   potentially into the 20-25% range across southeast CO/western KS,
   will support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. 

   High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
   from eastern NM into southeast CO. Some locally higher precipitation
   amounts are possible with the strongest storms, but widespread
   wetting rainfall is not expected, and the potential for lightning
   activity amid very receptive fuels continues to merit an isolated
   dry-thunderstorm delineation across this area. Gusty outflow winds
   may become rather widespread by early evening across the area as

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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