NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 1-2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 3 16:38:02 UTC 2020
Apr 3, 2020 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS21 KWNS 031636

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1136 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020

   Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

   Only minor adjustments were made to the elevated area across NC
   based on recent ensemble guidance and surface observations. Mid
   morning surface observations across far southern VA and central NC
   already show RH values falling between 15-25% with variable winds.
   These dry conditions will likely persist into the afternoon with
   little to no moisture recovery and sustained winds increasing to
   near 15-20 mph. As noted in the previous discussion, periodic
   elevated fire weather conditions are likely to occur outside of the
   delineated area, especially further north across central VA where
   15-20% RH values will be common through the day, but marginal fuel
   conditions due to higher rainfall in the past 7 days prevent
   inclusion in the outlook.

   ..Moore/Wendt.. 04/03/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020/

   A mid-level impulse is forecast to lift northward across the
   northern Plains today as it pivots through a broader mid-level West
   Coast trough. Meanwhile, a departing mid-level cyclone across the
   Eastern United States and associated surface cyclone offshore over
   the Atlantic Ocean will promote drying northeasterly low-level flow
   across much of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. 

   ...Carolina Piedmont...
   A dry low-level air mass is forecast to reside from central Virginia
   through much of Florida today, with critically-lowered RH values in
   many areas. However, sustained winds are forecast to be relatively
   light (e.g., less than 15 mph) in most areas (albeit gusty at
   times). Furthermore, elevated/critical RH values are mostly expected
   where forecasted winds are weakest (e.g., across the Southeast
   farther from the aforementioned surface cyclone). It still appears
   that the best overlap of lowered RH values amidst sustained surface
   winds of 15-20 mph will be across portions of the Carolina Piedmont
   during the afternoon today. This area also happens to be in a
   relative minimum in precipitation accumulation over the last several
   days, which should allow for at least fine fuels to be receptive to
   fire spread. While elevated meteorological fire weather conditions
   may extend outside of the fire weather area, marginal fuel
   receptiveness coupled with the forecasted brief/spotty nature of
   these conditions precludes expanding the outlook at this time. 

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A typical dry and breezy afternoon is expected today across portions
   of central/southwest New Mexico, with several hours of RH values
   less than 20% and sustained surface winds near 15 mph. While locally
   elevated fire weather conditions are possible, the spotty/brief
   nature of these conditions and the relative frequency for this area
   preclude an outlook area.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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