Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 Jul 20 0500 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=3 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
C1.29 - Active
B1.59 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
C2.8 - Active 2017-07-19
B1.54 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
6.80 protons/cm3
489km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
8.39 (Bt) - Normal
0.619 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (21 Jul) and expected to be very low on days two and three (22 Jul, 23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 20/2037Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 20/1650Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 20/1757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 11443 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Jul, 23 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day two (22 Jul).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 Jul 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 20-Jul 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 20 to Jul 22 2017
Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22
Forecast High  
2
3
4
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 1 2 2
09-12UT 1 2 2
12-15UT 1 2 3
15-18UT 1 2 4
18-21UT 2 2 4
21-00UT 2 3 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
3
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jul 21 to Jul 23
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 30% 10%
Minor Storm 10% 15% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 20%
Major-severe storm 40% 50% 15%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 20 to Jul 22 2017
Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 20 to Jul 22 2017
Jul 20 Jul 21 Jul 22
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 Jul 17 0154 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 Jul 17 85 30 6 G2
2017 Jul 18 80 12 4
2017 Jul 19 74 8 3
2017 Jul 20 74 8 3
2017 Jul 21 74 15 4
2017 Jul 22 74 12 4
2017 Jul 23 74 5 2
2017 Jul 24 75 5 2
2017 Jul 25 75 5 2
2017 Jul 26 75 5 2
2017 Jul 27 75 5 2
2017 Jul 28 75 5 2
2017 Jul 29 90 5 2
2017 Jul 30 90 5 2
2017 Jul 31 90 5 2
2017 Aug 01 90 5 2
2017 Aug 02 90 5 2
2017 Aug 03 90 5 2
2017 Aug 04 90 5 2
2017 Aug 05 90 25 5 G1
2017 Aug 06 90 10 3
2017 Aug 07 90 8 3
2017 Aug 08 90 5 2
2017 Aug 09 90 5 2
2017 Aug 10 90 5 2
2017 Aug 11 90 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B1.54 70 6 3

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 489 km/sec 6.80 p/cm3 Bt 8.39 nT Bz -0.82 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 20 Jul 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


IC 1396: Emission Nebula in Cepheus
IC 1396: Emission Nebula in Cepheus
2017 July 20

Explanation: Stunning emission nebula IC 1396 mixes glowing cosmic gas and dark dust clouds in the high and far off constellation of Cepheus. Energized by the bright central star seen here, this star forming region sprawls across hundreds of light-years, spanning over three degrees on the sky while nearly 3,000 light-years from planet Earth. Among the intriguing dark shapes within IC 1396, the winding Elephant's Trunk nebula lies just below center. Stars could still be forming inside the dark shapes by gravitational collapse. But as the denser clouds are eroded away by powerful stellar winds and radiation, any forming stars will ultimately be cutoff from the reservoir of star stuff. The gorgeous color view is a composition of image data from narrowband filters, mapping emission from the nebula's atomic oxygen, hydrogen, and sulfur into blue, green, and red hues.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: pixels in space
Credit & Copyright: César Blanco González
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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