Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2019 Jul 21 2308 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A7.69 - Normal
A7.35 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.2 - Normal 2019-07-07
A6.49 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
3.66 protons/cm3
383 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.59 (Bt) - Normal
0.633 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 23/0115Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 23/0953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 23/1853Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (24 Jul, 26 Jul) and quiet levels on day two (25 Jul).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 Jul 24 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 24-Jul 26 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 24 to Jul 26 2019
Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
Forecast High  
3
2
3
00-03UT 3 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 2
06-09UT 2 2 2
09-12UT 2 1 2
12-15UT 1 1 3
15-18UT 1 1 2
18-21UT 1 1 2
21-00UT 2 1 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jul 24 to Jul 26
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 15%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 15% 20%
Major-severe storm 25% 15% 15%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 24 to Jul 26 2019
Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 24 to Jul 26 2019
Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul 26
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2019 Jul 22 0209 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm		 Planetary
A Index		 Largest
Kp Index
2019 Jul 22 67 5 2
2019 Jul 23 67 8 3
2019 Jul 24 67 8 3
2019 Jul 25 67 5 2
2019 Jul 26 67 8 3
2019 Jul 27 67 8 3
2019 Jul 28 67 8 3
2019 Jul 29 67 5 2
2019 Jul 30 67 5 2
2019 Jul 31 67 5 2
2019 Aug 01 67 5 2
2019 Aug 02 67 5 2
2019 Aug 03 67 5 2
2019 Aug 04 67 8 3
2019 Aug 05 67 15 4
2019 Aug 06 67 15 4
2019 Aug 07 67 8 3
2019 Aug 08 67 5 2
2019 Aug 09 67 5 2
2019 Aug 10 67 5 2
2019 Aug 11 67 5 2
2019 Aug 12 67 5 2
2019 Aug 13 67 5 2
2019 Aug 14 67 5 2
2019 Aug 15 67 5 2
2019 Aug 16 67 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A6.49 67 6 2

Solar X-ray Flux
 Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 383 km/sec 3.66 p/cm3 Bt 3.59 nT Bz 2.37 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
 Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
 Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
 SDO AIA 0193
 SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
 SDO AIA 304 211 171
 SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 24 Jul 2019 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
 F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
 Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.


Near Earth Asteroids Near Earth Asteroids


Potentially Hazardous  Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On July 24, 2019 there were 1983 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
 Asteroid
Date (UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2019 NJ2
2019-Jul-19
13.4 LD
13.5
38
2015 HM10
2019-Jul-24
12.2 LD
9.5
68
2019 OD
2019-Jul-24
0.9 LD
19.2
69
2019 OE
2019-Jul-24
2.5 LD
9
31
2010 PK9
2019-Jul-26
8.2 LD
16.5
155
2019 NT1
2019-Jul-27
19 LD
3.7
14
2019 NN4
2019-Jul-29
6.6 LD
3.8
26
2006 QQ23
2019-Aug-10
19.4 LD
4.7
339
454094
2019-Aug-12
17 LD
8.2
148
2018 PN22
2019-Aug-17
17.1 LD
2.3
11
2016 PD1
2019-Aug-26
11.4 LD
5.9
65
2002 JR100
2019-Aug-27
19.4 LD
8.4
49
2018 DE1
2019-Sep-03
12.7 LD
6.6
28
2019 GT3
2019-Sep-06
19.5 LD
13.6
227
2010 RM82
2019-Sep-13
18.2 LD
14.6
23
2013 CV83
2019-Sep-13
15.7 LD
13.1
62
504800
2019-Sep-14
13.9 LD
14.4
155
467317
2019-Sep-14
13.9 LD
6.4
389
2019 JF1
2019-Sep-16
11.2 LD
4.3
61
2018 FU1
2019-Sep-16
18.4 LD
4.7
16

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
   Source: Space Weather.com

 Astronomy Picture of the Day


M82: Galaxy with a Supergalactic Wind
M82: Galaxy with a Supergalactic Wind
2019 July 23

Explanation: Why is the Cigar Galaxy billowing red smoke? M82, as this starburst galaxy is also known, was stirred up by a recent pass near large spiral galaxy M81. This doesn't fully explain the source of the red-glowing outwardly expanding gas and dust, however. Evidence indicates that this gas and dust is being driven out by the combined emerging particle winds of many stars, together creating a galactic superwind. The dust particles are thought to originate in M82's interstellar medium and are actually similar in size to particles in cigar smoke. The featured photographic mosaic highlights a specific color of red light strongly emitted by ionized hydrogen gas, showing detailed filaments of this gas and dust. The filaments extend for over 10,000 light years. The 12-million light-year distant Cigar Galaxy is the brightest galaxy in the sky in infrared light, and can be seen in visible light with a small telescope towards the constellation of the Great Bear (Ursa Major).

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: zodiacal road
Credit : NASA, ESA, Hubble; Processing & Copyright: Daniel Nobre
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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