Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2020 Jan 09 0904 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=1 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
B1.17 - Normal
A9.09 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.1 - Normal 2020-01-25
A8.26 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
9.63 protons/cm3
357 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
7.75 (Bt) - Normal
0.803 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 27 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jan, 29 Jan, 30 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 439 km/s at 27/0806Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/0353Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 27/0309Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 301 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (29 Jan, 30 Jan).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Jan 28 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 28-Jan 30 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 28 to Jan 30 2020
Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 30
Forecast High  
2
3
3
00-03UT 1 3 2
03-06UT 1 2 3
06-09UT 1 2 2
09-12UT 1 2 2
12-15UT 1 3 2
15-18UT 1 3 2
18-21UT 2 3 2
21-00UT 2 3 1
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jan 28 to Jan 30
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 20% 20%
Minor Storm 1% 5% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 15% 25% 25%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 28 to Jan 30 2020
Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 30
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 28 to Jan 30 2020
Jan 28 Jan 29 Jan 30
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2020 Jan 27 0041 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2020 Jan 27 74 5 2
2020 Jan 28 74 5 2
2020 Jan 29 74 10 3
2020 Jan 30 74 10 3
2020 Jan 31 74 5 2
2020 Feb 01 74 5 2
2020 Feb 02 74 5 2
2020 Feb 03 72 8 3
2020 Feb 04 72 8 3
2020 Feb 05 72 8 3
2020 Feb 06 71 5 2
2020 Feb 07 71 5 2
2020 Feb 08 71 5 2
2020 Feb 09 71 5 2
2020 Feb 10 71 5 2
2020 Feb 11 71 5 2
2020 Feb 12 71 5 2
2020 Feb 13 71 5 2
2020 Feb 14 72 5 2
2020 Feb 15 72 5 2
2020 Feb 16 72 5 2
2020 Feb 17 72 5 2
2020 Feb 18 72 5 2
2020 Feb 19 72 5 2
2020 Feb 20 72 5 2
2020 Feb 21 73 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A8.26 73 3 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 357 km/sec 9.63 p/cm3 Bt 7.75 nT Bz 0.54 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 28 Jan 2020 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (12)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Star Formation in the Tadpole Nebula
Star Formation in the Tadpole Nebula
2020 January 28

Explanation: What's all of the commotion in the Tadpole Nebula? Star formation. Dusty emission in the Tadpole Nebula, IC 410, lies about 12,000 light-years away in the northern constellation of the Charioteer (Auriga). The cloud of glowing gas is over 100 light-years across, sculpted by stellar winds and radiation from embedded open star cluster NGC 1893. Formed in the interstellar cloud a mere 4 million years ago, bright newly formed cluster stars are seen all around the star-forming nebula. Notable near the image center are two relatively dense streamers of material trailing away from the nebula's central regions. Potentially sites of ongoing star formation in IC 410, these cosmic tadpole shapes are about 10 light-years long. The featured image was taken in infrared light by NASA's Wide Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) satellite.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: steaming galaxy
Credit : WISE, IRSA, NASA; Processing & Copyright: Francesco Antonucci
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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