Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 Aug 21 0636 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A3.08 - Normal
A1.57 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.3 - Normal 2018-07-15
A0.64 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.15 protons/cm3
519km/sec Mod. Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.42 (Bt) - Normal
0.402 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 710 km/s at 20/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/1904Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2109Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 9296 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug, 24 Aug).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Aug 22 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 22-Aug 24 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 22 to Aug 24 2018
Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24
Forecast High  
3
3
3
00-03UT 3 3 3
03-06UT 3 2 2
06-09UT 3 2 2
09-12UT 2 2 2
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 3 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Aug 22 to Aug 24
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 5% 5% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 20%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 25%
Major-severe storm 25% 20% 20%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 22 to Aug 24 2018
Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 22 to Aug 24 2018
Aug 22 Aug 23 Aug 24
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Aug 20 0445 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Aug 20 67 20 4
2018 Aug 21 67 18 4
2018 Aug 22 67 12 4
2018 Aug 23 67 12 4
2018 Aug 24 66 10 3
2018 Aug 25 66 8 3
2018 Aug 26 66 5 2
2018 Aug 27 66 5 2
2018 Aug 28 66 5 2
2018 Aug 29 66 5 2
2018 Aug 30 66 5 2
2018 Aug 31 66 5 2
2018 Sep 01 66 5 2
2018 Sep 02 66 5 2
2018 Sep 03 66 12 4
2018 Sep 04 66 8 3
2018 Sep 05 66 5 2
2018 Sep 06 67 5 2
2018 Sep 07 67 8 3
2018 Sep 08 67 5 2
2018 Sep 09 67 5 2
2018 Sep 10 67 5 2
2018 Sep 11 68 15 4
2018 Sep 12 68 15 4
2018 Sep 13 68 12 4
2018 Sep 14 68 12 4



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.64 68 7 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 519 km/sec 5.15 p/cm3 Bt 2.42 nT Bz -0.47 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 22 Aug 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (15)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Glowing Elements in the Soul Nebula
Glowing Elements in the Soul Nebula
2018 August 21

Explanation: Stars are forming in the Soul of the Queen of Aethopia. More specifically, a large star forming region called the Soul Nebula (IC 1898) can be found in the direction of the constellation Cassiopeia, who Greek mythology credits as the vain wife of a King who long ago ruled lands surrounding the upper Nile river. The Soul Nebula houses several open clusters of stars, a large radio source known as W5, and huge evacuated bubbles formed by the winds of young massive stars. Located about 6,500 light years away, the Soul Nebula spans about 100 light years and is usually imaged next to its celestial neighbor the Heart Nebula (IC 1805). The featured image is a composite of three exposures in different colors: red as emitted by hydrogen gas, yellow as emitted by sulfur, and blue as emitted by oxygen.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: nearby asteroid
Credit & Copyright: Jesús M.Vargas & Maritxu Poyal
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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