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| Advisories / Alerts |
| Severe Wx Summary! | |
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 Small Craft Advisory Frost Advisory Hazardous Weather Outlook |
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| Sun, Oct 21, 2018 - 8:24am |
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Info Links
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| Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2018 |
| IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
| IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct). |
| IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 314 km/s at 20/0659Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1273 pfu. |
| IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct). |
Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Oct 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
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Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
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Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
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Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC
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| This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. | The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
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| Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |
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| This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. | This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
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| This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. | Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24 |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.
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| Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
| Source: Space Weather.com |
| Meteor, Comet, and Seagull (Nebula) | |||
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2018 October 21 |
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Explanation: A meteor, a comet, and a photogenic nebula have all been captured in this single image. The closest and most fleeting is the streaking meteor on the upper right -- it was visible for less than a second. The meteor, which disintegrated in Earth's atmosphere, was likely a small bit of debris from the nucleus of Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, coincidentally the comet captured in the same image. Comet 21P, pictured across the inner Solar System from Earth, is distinctive for its long dust tail spread horizontally across the image center. This comet has been visible with binoculars for the past few months but is now fading as it heads back out to the orbit of Jupiter. Farthest out at 3,500 light years distant is the IC 2177, the Seagull Nebula, visible on the left. The comparatively vast Seagull Nebula, with a wingspan on order 250 light-years, will likely remain visible for hundreds of thousands of years. Long exposures, taken about two weeks ago from Iwaki-City in Japan, were combined to capture the image's faintest elements. You, too, could see a meteor like this -- and perhaps sooner than you might think: tonight is the peak of the Orionids meteor shower. |
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| High Resolution Image | |||
| Tomorrow’s Image: lunar shake down | |||
| Credit & Copyright: Takao Sambommatsu | |||
| Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
Past 7 Days of Astronomy Pic of the DayPowered by Space Weather PHP script by Mike Challis
additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather, Ken True of Saratoga Weather,
Jerry Wilkins of Southeast Lincoln Weather and Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00 Top Contact