Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 Apr 24 0848 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=5 Storm!
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
B2.42 - Normal
B1.37 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
B3.7 - Normal 2017-04-23
B1.20 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
9.64 protons/cm3
675km/sec Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
5.01 (Bt) - Normal
0.446 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 813 km/s at 23/2023Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 23/0406Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 23/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20544 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels on day one (24 Apr) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (25 Apr, 26 Apr).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 Apr 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 24-Apr 26 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 24 to Apr 26 2017
Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
Forecast High  
5 G1
5 G1
5 G1
00-03UT 4 5 G1 5 G1
03-06UT 4 4 4
06-09UT 4 4 4
09-12UT 4 3 3
12-15UT 5 G1 3 3
15-18UT 4 3 3
18-21UT 4 3 3
21-00UT 4 4 4
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
5 G1
4
4
4
4
4
4
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Apr 24 to Apr 26
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 45% 40% 40%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 25% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 65% 60% 60%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on Apr 24 and likely on Apr 25-26 due to the continued influence of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 24 to Apr 26 2017
Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 24 to Apr 26 2017
Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr 26
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 Apr 24 0153 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 Apr 24 84 30 5 G1
2017 Apr 25 84 20 5 G1
2017 Apr 26 84 20 5 G1
2017 Apr 27 84 20 5 G1
2017 Apr 28 84 15 4
2017 Apr 29 84 8 3
2017 Apr 30 84 5 2
2017 May 01 80 20 5 G1
2017 May 02 75 10 3
2017 May 03 75 10 3
2017 May 04 75 10 3
2017 May 05 75 15 4
2017 May 06 75 15 4
2017 May 07 75 8 3
2017 May 08 75 8 3
2017 May 09 75 5 2
2017 May 10 75 5 2
2017 May 11 75 5 2
2017 May 12 75 5 2
2017 May 13 75 5 2
2017 May 14 75 5 2
2017 May 15 80 8 3
2017 May 16 80 15 4
2017 May 17 80 30 5 G1
2017 May 18 80 25 5 G1
2017 May 19 85 45 6 G2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B1.20 83 41 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 675 km/sec 9.64 p/cm3 Bt 5.01 nT Bz -2.18 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 24 Apr 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (43)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


A White Battle in the Black Sea
A White Battle in the Black Sea
2017 April 24

Explanation: Trillions have died in the Earth's seas. Calcified shields of the dead already make up the white cliffs of Dover. The battle between ball-shaped light-colored single-celled plants -- phytoplankton called coccolithophores -- and even smaller, diamond-shaped viruses dubbed coccolithoviruses -- has raged for tens of millions of years. To help fight this battle, the coccolithophores create their chalky armor by absorbing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. This battle is so epic that coccolithophores actually remove a significant fraction of Earth's atmospheric carbon dioxide, bolstering the breathability of air for animals including humans. Pictured in this 2012 image from NASA's Aqua satellite, the Black Sea was turned light blue by coccolithophore blooms.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: comet needle
Credit : NASA, Aqua, MODIS
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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