Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2022 Sep 24 1444 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=4 - Unsettled
Kp=3 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
C7.23 - Active
C6.18 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C2.5 - Active 2022-09-24
C1.72 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
3.94 protons/cm3
422km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.62 (Bt) - Normal
0.699 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 267 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Sep 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 24/1607Z from Region 3107 (S25E28). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Sep, 26 Sep, 27 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 24/1407Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 23/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 23/2140Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 838 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 Sep 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 24-Sep 26 2022 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 24 to Sep 26 2022
Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26
Forecast High  
5 G1
4
3
00-03UT 2 4 3
03-06UT 4 3 3
06-09UT 2 3 3
09-12UT 3 3 2
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 2 2
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 5 G1 3 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3
2
4
2
3
3
3
3
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Sep 25 to Sep 27
Middle Latitudes Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
Active 30% 25% 20%
Minor Storm 10% 10% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep 27
Active 20% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 20% 15%
Major-severe storm 25% 25% 15%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 24 Sep due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 24 to Sep 26 2022
Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Sep 23 2022 1810 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 24 to Sep 26 2022
Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep 26
R1-R2 30% 30% 30%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
PCAF green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts on 24-26 Sep.

Region Flare Probabilities for Sep 25, 2022
Region Class C M X P
3102 45% 10% 1% 1%
3105 60% 15% 1% 1%
3107 75% 25% 5% 1%
3108 20% 1% 1% 1%
3109 20% 1% 1% 1%
3110 70% 20% 5% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 Sep 19 0622 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2022 Sep 19 138 10 3
2022 Sep 20 135 5 2
2022 Sep 21 135 5 2
2022 Sep 22 133 20 5 G1
2022 Sep 23 128 18 5 G1
2022 Sep 24 126 12 4
2022 Sep 25 130 8 3
2022 Sep 26 125 8 3
2022 Sep 27 120 8 3
2022 Sep 28 120 8 3
2022 Sep 29 122 8 3
2022 Sep 30 122 22 5 G1
2022 Oct 01 122 50 6 G2
2022 Oct 02 122 30 5 G1
2022 Oct 03 120 20 5 G1
2022 Oct 04 122 12 4
2022 Oct 05 122 15 4
2022 Oct 06 122 12 4
2022 Oct 07 122 10 3
2022 Oct 08 125 8 3
2022 Oct 09 122 8 3
2022 Oct 10 120 5 2
2022 Oct 11 118 8 3
2022 Oct 12 118 5 2
2022 Oct 13 116 5 2
2022 Oct 14 116 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C1.72 147 17 3

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 422 km/sec 3.94 p/cm3 Bt 4.62 nT Bz -0.39 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun
Sunspots last 30 days
Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 24 Sep 2022 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (111)

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Six Previous Cycles to date
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing 6 Previous Cycles to date
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows six Previous Cycles to date

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


September Sunrise Shadows
September Sunrise Shadows
2022 September 24

Explanation: The defining astronomical moment for this September's equinox was on Friday, September 23, 2022 at 01:03 UTC, when the Sun crossed the celestial equator moving south in its yearly journey through planet Earth's sky. That marked the beginning of fall for our fair planet in the northern hemisphere and spring in the southern hemisphere, when day and night are nearly equal around the globe. Of course, if you celebrate the astronomical change of seasons by watching a sunrise you can also look for crepuscular rays. The shadows cast by clouds can have a dramatic appearance in the twilight sky during any sunrise or sunset. Due to perspective, the parallel shadows will seem to point back to the rising Sun and a place due east on your horizon near the equinox date. Taken on September 15, this sunrise sea and skyscape captured crepuscular rays in the sky and watery specular reflections from the Mediterranean coast near the village of Petacciato, Italy.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: shadows of cosmic dust
Credit & Copyright: Donato Lioce
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Weather-Display (10.37S-(b58))
Virtual VP software
Top Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2022 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet