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| Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2021 |
| IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. |
| IB. Solar Activity Forecast Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (28 Jan). |
| IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 25/2057Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 202 pfu. |
| IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan). |
Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Jan 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 26-Jan 28 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
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Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected early on 26 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.
Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
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Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
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Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 Jan 25 0126 UTC
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| This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. | The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment. |
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| Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). | Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite. |
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Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10. |
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The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere. |
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| This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. | This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression. |
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| This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. | Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24 |
The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun.
Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.
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| Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach. |
| Source: Space Weather.com |
| Southern Cross over Chilean Volcano | |||
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2021 January 25 |
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Explanation: Have you ever seen the Southern Cross? This famous four-star icon is best seen from Earth's Southern Hemisphere. The featured image was taken last month in Chile and captures the Southern Cross just to the left of erupting Villarrica, one of the most active volcanos in our Solar System. Connecting the reddest Southern Cross star Gacrux through the brightest star Acrux points near the most southern location in the sky: the South Celestial Pole (SCP), around which all southern stars appear to spin as the Earth turns. In modern times, no bright star resides near the SCP, unlike in the north where bright Polaris now appears near the NCP. Extending the Gacrux - Acrux line still further (from about four to about seven times their angular separation) leads near the Small Magellanic Cloud, a bright satellite galaxy of our Milky Way Galaxy. The Southern Cross asterism dominates the Crux constellation, a deeper array of stars that includes four Cepheid variable stars visible to the unaided eye. Just above the volcano in the image, and looking like a dark plume, is the Coalsack Nebula, while the large red star-forming Carina Nebula is visible on the upper left. |
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| High Resolution Image | |||
| Tomorrow’s Image: detective hubble | |||
| Credit & Copyright: Tomáš Slovinský | |||
| Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day |
Space Weather Images and Information (excluded from copyright) courtesy of: NOAA / NWS Space Weather Prediction Center, Mauna Loa Solar Observatory (HAO/NCAR), and SOHO (ESA & NASA).
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Past 7 Days of Astronomy Pic of the DayPowered by Space Weather PHP script by Mike Challis
additions by Martin of Hebrides Weather, Ken True of Saratoga Weather,
Jerry Wilkins of Southeast Lincoln Weather and Jeremy Dyde of Jerbils Weather
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