Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2021 Jan 26 0244 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=5 Storm!
Kp=4 - Unsettled
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
7.10 protons/cm3
605km/sec Mod. Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
6.46 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 25/2057Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 25/0821Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 25/2056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Jan, 28 Jan).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Jan 26 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 26-Jan 28 2021 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 26 to Jan 28 2021
Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan 28
Forecast High  
5 G1
2
2
00-03UT 5 G1 2 1
03-06UT 3 1 1
06-09UT 2 1 2
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
4
4
2
3
3
5 G1
4
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jan 26 to Jan 28
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 50% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 30% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 5% 20% 20%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 70% 10% 10%

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected early on 26 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS effects.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 26 to Jan 28 2021
Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan 28
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 26 to Jan 28 2021
Jan 26 Jan 27 Jan 28
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 Jan 25 0126 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2021 Jan 25 76 8 3
2021 Jan 26 76 8 3
2021 Jan 27 76 5 2
2021 Jan 28 76 5 2
2021 Jan 29 75 5 2
2021 Jan 30 75 5 2
2021 Jan 31 75 5 2
2021 Feb 01 75 10 3
2021 Feb 02 75 10 3
2021 Feb 03 75 5 2
2021 Feb 04 76 5 2
2021 Feb 05 76 5 2
2021 Feb 06 76 5 2
2021 Feb 07 76 10 3
2021 Feb 08 76 10 3
2021 Feb 09 76 5 2
2021 Feb 10 76 5 2
2021 Feb 11 77 5 2
2021 Feb 12 77 5 2
2021 Feb 13 77 5 2
2021 Feb 14 77 5 2
2021 Feb 15 77 5 2
2021 Feb 16 77 5 2
2021 Feb 17 77 5 2
2021 Feb 18 77 5 2
2021 Feb 19 77 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 77 17 4

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 605 km/sec 7.10 p/cm3 Bt 6.46 nT Bz -6.18 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 26 Jan 2021 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (26)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Southern Cross over Chilean Volcano
Southern Cross over Chilean Volcano
2021 January 25

Explanation: Have you ever seen the Southern Cross? This famous four-star icon is best seen from Earth's Southern Hemisphere. The featured image was taken last month in Chile and captures the Southern Cross just to the left of erupting Villarrica, one of the most active volcanos in our Solar System. Connecting the reddest Southern Cross star Gacrux through the brightest star Acrux points near the most southern location in the sky: the South Celestial Pole (SCP), around which all southern stars appear to spin as the Earth turns. In modern times, no bright star resides near the SCP, unlike in the north where bright Polaris now appears near the NCP. Extending the Gacrux - Acrux line still further (from about four to about seven times their angular separation) leads near the Small Magellanic Cloud, a bright satellite galaxy of our Milky Way Galaxy. The Southern Cross asterism dominates the Crux constellation, a deeper array of stars that includes four Cepheid variable stars visible to the unaided eye. Just above the volcano in the image, and looking like a dark plume, is the Coalsack Nebula, while the large red star-forming Carina Nebula is visible on the upper left.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: detective hubble
Credit & Copyright: Tomáš Slovinský
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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