Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2022 May 16 0500 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M2.46 - Class Flare
C3.62 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C2.9 - Active 2022-05-17
C1.58 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
2.09 protons/cm3
476km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
6.90 (Bt) - Normal
0.639 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2022
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 16/1327Z from Region 3017 (N14E66). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 May, 18 May, 19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 587 km/s at 16/1505Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 16/1209Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 16/0902Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (17 May, 19 May) and quiet levels on day two (18 May).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2022 May 17 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2022 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 17 to May 19 2022
May 17 May 18 May 19
Forecast High  
3
2
3
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 3 1 1
06-09UT 2 1 2
09-12UT 2 1 2
12-15UT 2 2 2
15-18UT 2 1 2
18-21UT 2 1 3
21-00UT 2 2 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - May 17 to May 19
Middle Latitudes May 17 May 18 May 19
Active 20% 15% 25%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes May 17 May 18 May 19
Active 20% 15% 20%
Minor Storm 30% 20% 30%
Major-severe storm 25% 20% 30%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17 to May 19 2022
May 17 May 18 May 19
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at May 16 2022 1327 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17 to May 19 2022
May 17 May 18 May 19
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 15%
PCAF green

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Region Flare Probabilities for May 17, 2022
Region Class C M X P
3007 75% 25% 10% 5%
3010 20% 5% 1% 1%
3011 5% 1% 1% 1%
3013 5% 1% 1% 1%
3014 35% 15% 1% 1%
3015 25% 5% 1% 1%
3016 5% 1% 1% 1%
3017 35% 15% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2022 May 16 0228 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2022 May 16 154 14 4
2022 May 17 152 8 3
2022 May 18 152 5 2
2022 May 19 150 8 3
2022 May 20 148 8 3
2022 May 21 140 5 2
2022 May 22 140 5 2
2022 May 23 145 5 2
2022 May 24 142 18 5 G1
2022 May 25 142 15 4
2022 May 26 138 15 4
2022 May 27 136 15 4
2022 May 28 136 8 3
2022 May 29 138 5 2
2022 May 30 140 5 2
2022 May 31 140 5 2
2022 Jun 01 143 5 2
2022 Jun 02 143 5 2
2022 Jun 03 143 5 2
2022 Jun 04 140 5 2
2022 Jun 05 136 5 2
2022 Jun 06 138 5 2
2022 Jun 07 138 5 2
2022 Jun 08 140 5 2
2022 Jun 09 150 5 2
2022 Jun 10 154 8 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C1.58 162 10 1

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 476 km/sec 2.09 p/cm3 Bt 6.90 nT Bz 1.33 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun
Sunspots last 30 days
Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 16 May 2022 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (129)

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
Six Previous Cycles to date
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing 6 Previous Cycles to date
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression This plot shows six Previous Cycles to date

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Milky Way over French Alp Hoodoos
Milky Way over French Alp Hoodoos
2022 May 16

Explanation: Real castles aren't this old. And the background galaxy is even older. Looking a bit like an alien castle, the pictured rock spires are called hoodoos and are likely millions of years old. Rare, but found around the world, hoodoos form when dense rocks slow the erosion of softer rock underneath. The pictured hoodoos survive in the French Alps and are named Demoiselles Coiffées -- which translates to English as "Ladies with Hairdos". The background galaxy is part of the central disk of our own Milky Way galaxy and contains stars that are typically billions of years old. The photogenic Cygnus sky region -- rich in dusty dark clouds and red glowing nebulas -- appears just above and behind the hoodoos. The featured image was taken in two stages: the foreground was captured during the evening blue hour, while the background was acquired from the same location later that night.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: shells of stars
Credit & Copyright: Benjamin Barakat
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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