Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2018 Jan 20 0529 UTC - Read More
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
B1.72 - Normal
A4.26 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
B1.7 - Normal 2018-01-20
A3.42 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
6.60 protons/cm3
390 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
5.80 (Bt) - Normal
0.444 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 19/1741Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 19/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 19/0458Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Jan 20 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 20 to Jan 22 2018
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
Forecast High  
4
4
3
00-03UT 3 4 2
03-06UT 3 3 2
06-09UT 3 3 2
09-12UT 1 2 3
12-15UT 4 2 3
15-18UT 3 2 3
18-21UT 3 2 3
21-00UT 3 3 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
2
2
3
3
3
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Jan 20 to Jan 22
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 35% 25% 20%
Minor Storm 20% 10% 5%
Major-severe storm 5% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 20%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 25%
Major-severe storm 45% 35% 25%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20 to Jan 22 2018
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20 to Jan 22 2018
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Jan 15 0519 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Jan 15 70 10 3
2018 Jan 16 70 5 2
2018 Jan 17 70 5 2
2018 Jan 18 70 5 2
2018 Jan 19 70 18 5 G1
2018 Jan 20 70 18 5 G1
2018 Jan 21 70 15 4
2018 Jan 22 72 10 3
2018 Jan 23 72 5 2
2018 Jan 24 72 5 2
2018 Jan 25 72 5 2
2018 Jan 26 72 5 2
2018 Jan 27 72 5 2
2018 Jan 28 70 10 3
2018 Jan 29 70 5 2
2018 Jan 30 70 5 2
2018 Jan 31 70 5 2
2018 Feb 01 70 5 2
2018 Feb 02 70 5 2
2018 Feb 03 70 5 2
2018 Feb 04 70 8 3
2018 Feb 05 70 8 3
2018 Feb 06 70 5 2
2018 Feb 07 70 5 2
2018 Feb 08 70 5 2
2018 Feb 09 70 8 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A3.42 71 8 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 390 km/sec 6.60 p/cm3 Bt 5.80 nT Bz -2.09 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 20 Jan 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (11)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Old Moon in the New Moon’s Arms
Old Moon in the New Moon’s Arms
2018 January 20

Explanation: Also known as the Moon's "ashen glow" or the "Old Moon in the New Moon's arms", earthshine is earthlight reflected from the Moon's night side. This stunning image of earthshine from a young crescent moon was taken from Las Campanas Observatory, Atacama Desert, Chile, planet Earth near moonset on January 18. Dramatic atmospheric inversion layers appear above the Pacific Ocean, colored by the sunset at the planet's western horizon. But the view from the Moon would have been stunning, too. When the Moon appears in Earth's sky as a slender crescent, a dazzlingly bright, nearly full Earth would be seen from the lunar surface. A description of earthshine, in terms of sunlight reflected by Earth's oceans in turn illuminating the Moon's dark surface, was written 500 years ago by Leonardo da Vinci.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: electric blizzard
Credit & Copyright: Yuri Beletsky (Carnegie Las Campanas Observatory, TWAN)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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