Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 Nov 22 1037 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
A6.68 - Normal
A6.07 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
B1.7 - Normal 2017-11-21
A5.15 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.83 protons/cm3
430km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.46 (Bt) - Normal
0.408 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Nov, 24 Nov, 25 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 598 km/s at 21/2118Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 22/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 22/1620Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2742 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (23 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (24 Nov, 25 Nov).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 Nov 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 23-Nov 25 2017 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 23 to Nov 25 2017
Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25
Forecast High  
3
2
2
00-03UT 3 2 2
03-06UT 2 2 1
06-09UT 2 2 1
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 2 1 1
15-18UT 2 2 1
18-21UT 3 1 2
21-00UT 2 1 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Nov 23 to Nov 25
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 5% 5% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 15% 15% 20%
Major-severe storm 15% 15% 15%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 23 to Nov 25 2017
Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 23 to Nov 25 2017
Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 Nov 20 0559 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 Nov 20 75 18 4
2017 Nov 21 75 18 4
2017 Nov 22 75 15 4
2017 Nov 23 75 8 3
2017 Nov 24 75 5 2
2017 Nov 25 75 5 2
2017 Nov 26 75 5 2
2017 Nov 27 73 5 2
2017 Nov 28 72 5 2
2017 Nov 29 71 8 3
2017 Nov 30 70 10 3
2017 Dec 01 70 5 2
2017 Dec 02 70 5 2
2017 Dec 03 69 5 2
2017 Dec 04 68 35 6 G2
2017 Dec 05 69 40 6 G2
2017 Dec 06 70 28 5 G1
2017 Dec 07 70 20 5 G1
2017 Dec 08 71 10 3
2017 Dec 09 72 5 2
2017 Dec 10 72 5 2
2017 Dec 11 73 12 4
2017 Dec 12 73 15 4
2017 Dec 13 74 12 4
2017 Dec 14 75 8 3
2017 Dec 15 75 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A5.15 73 10 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 430 km/sec 5.83 p/cm3 Bt 2.46 nT Bz -0.32 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 23 Nov 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


’Oumuamua: Interstellar Asteroid
’Oumuamua: Interstellar Asteroid
2017 November 22

Explanation: Nothing like it has ever been seen before. The unusual space rock 'Oumuamua is so intriguing mainly because it is the first asteroid ever detected from outside our Solar System -- although likely many more are to follow given modern computer-driven sky monitoring. Therefore humanity's telescopes -- of nearly every variety -- have put 'Oumuamua into their observing schedule to help better understand this unusual interstellar visitor. Pictured is an artist's illustration of what 'Oumuamua might look like up close. 'Oumuamua is also intriguing, however, because it has unexpected parallels to Rama, a famous fictional interstellar spaceship created by the late science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke. Like Rama, 'Oumuamua is unusually elongated, should be made of strong material to avoid breaking apart, is only passing through our Solar System, and passed unusually close to the Sun for something gravitationally unbound. Unlike a visiting spaceship, though, 'Oumuamua's trajectory, speed, color, and even probability of detection are consistent with it forming naturally around a normal star many millions of years ago, being expelled after gravitationally encountering a normal planet, and subsequently orbiting in our Galaxy alone. Even given 'Oumuamua's likely conventional origin, perhaps humanity can hold hope that one day we will have the technology to engineer 'Oumuamua -- or another Solar System interloper -- into an interstellar Rama of our own.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: open space
Credit : European Southern Observatory, M. Kornmesser
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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