Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 Dec 11 1300 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A3.19 - Normal
A2.47 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.0 - Normal 2018-12-09
A1.97 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.49 protons/cm3
477km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.50 (Bt) - Normal
0.528 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 605 km/s at 11/0227Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2714 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 Dec, 13 Dec, 14 Dec).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Dec 12 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 12-Dec 14 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 12 to Dec 14 2018
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
Forecast High  
2
2
2
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 2
06-09UT 1 2 2
09-12UT 1 2 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 2 1 1
18-21UT 2 1 1
21-00UT 2 1 1
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3
2
0
2
2
2
2
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Dec 12 to Dec 14
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 20% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 15%
Major-severe storm 15% 10% 15%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 12 to Dec 14 2018
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 12 to Dec 14 2018
Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Dec 10 0222 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Dec 10 68 12 4
2018 Dec 11 68 5 2
2018 Dec 12 68 8 3
2018 Dec 13 68 8 3
2018 Dec 14 68 5 2
2018 Dec 15 68 5 2
2018 Dec 16 68 5 2
2018 Dec 17 68 8 3
2018 Dec 18 68 8 3
2018 Dec 19 68 5 2
2018 Dec 20 68 5 2
2018 Dec 21 68 5 2
2018 Dec 22 68 5 2
2018 Dec 23 70 5 2
2018 Dec 24 70 5 2
2018 Dec 25 70 5 2
2018 Dec 26 70 5 2
2018 Dec 27 70 5 2
2018 Dec 28 70 8 3
2018 Dec 29 70 12 4
2018 Dec 30 70 10 3
2018 Dec 31 70 8 3
2019 Jan 01 70 5 2
2019 Jan 02 70 5 2
2019 Jan 03 70 10 3
2019 Jan 04 70 10 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A1.97 71 7 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 477 km/sec 5.49 p/cm3 Bt 3.50 nT Bz 2.92 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: Sun Spots Unavailable
Error reading Sun Spots data. - Yesterday's Sun Spots (11)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


M43: Orion Falls
M43: Orion Falls
2018 December 12

Explanation: Is there a waterfall in Orion? No, but some of the dust in M43 appears similar to a waterfall on Earth. M43, part of the Orion Molecular Cloud Complex, is the often imaged but rarely mentioned neighbor of the more famous M42. M42, which includes many bright stars from the Trapezium cluster, lies above the featured scene. M43 is itself a star forming region and although laced with filaments of dark dust, is composed mostly of glowing hydrogen. The entire Orion field, located about 1600 light years away, is inundated with many intricate and picturesque filaments of dust. Opaque to visible light, dark dust is created in the outer atmosphere of massive cool stars and expelled by a strong outer wind of protons and electrons.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: Bennu 3D
Credit & Copyright: Zhuoqun Wu, Chilescope Telescope 2
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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