Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2024 Apr 11 1727 UTC - Read More
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 2.67 - Quiet
Kp= 1.00 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M5.47 - R2 Class Flare
C3.64 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C2.7-Active 2024-04-12
C2.28 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
3.73 protons/cm3
406km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.35 (Bt) - Normal
0.24 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 102 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 11/1706Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Apr, 13 Apr, 14 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 11/1415Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 10/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 10/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 260 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (12 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (13 Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (14 Apr).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Apr 12 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 12-Apr 14 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 12 to Apr 14 2024
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
Forecast High  
2.67
2.67
4.00
00-03UT 2.33 2.33 1.67
03-06UT 2.67 1.67 1.67
06-09UT 1.67 2.00 4.00
09-12UT 1.67 1.67 3.67
12-15UT 1.33 2.00 3.33
15-18UT 1.33 2.33 3.00
18-21UT 1.67 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 1.67 2.67 3.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1.33
1.33
1.00
2.33
2.67
1.67
1.67
1.00
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Apr 12 to Apr 14
Middle Latitudes Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
Active 10% 20% 30%
Minor Storm 1% 5% 10%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 15% 25% 40%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 12 to Apr 14 2024
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R2 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Apr 11 2024 1706 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 12 to Apr 14 2024
Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr 14
Class: C-flare 80% 80% 80%
R1-R2 25% 25% 25%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
PCAF Updated: Friday, 12 Apr 2024 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts over 12-14 Apr.

Region Flare Probabilities for Apr 12, 2024
Region Class C M X P
3628 15% 1% 1% 1%
3633 15% 1% 1% 1%
3634 50% 15% 1% 1%
3635 25% 5% 1% 1%
3636 15% 1% 1% 1%


27-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2024 Apr 08 0055 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2024 Apr 08 140 5 2
2024 Apr 09 128 12 4
2024 Apr 10 125 12 4
2024 Apr 11 135 8 3
2024 Apr 12 145 5 2
2024 Apr 13 145 5 2
2024 Apr 14 140 8 3
2024 Apr 15 135 8 3
2024 Apr 16 140 10 3
2024 Apr 17 140 8 3
2024 Apr 18 140 5 2
2024 Apr 19 145 5 2
2024 Apr 20 135 5 2
2024 Apr 21 125 5 2
2024 Apr 22 150 5 2
2024 Apr 23 150 5 2
2024 Apr 24 145 5 2
2024 Apr 25 150 5 2
2024 Apr 26 135 8 3
2024 Apr 27 140 5 2
2024 Apr 28 125 7 2
2024 Apr 29 125 8 3
2024 Apr 30 120 8 3
2024 May 01 125 10 3
2024 May 02 125 10 3
2024 May 03 125 10 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C2.28 144 6 1.00

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 406 km/sec 3.73 p/cm3 Bt 4.35 nT Bz 1.01 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.




 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Total Totality
Total Totality
2024 April 12

Explanation: Baily's beads often appear at the boundaries of the total phase of an eclipse of the Sun. Pearls of sunlight still beaming through gaps in the rugged terrain along the lunar limb silhouette, their appearance is recorded in this dramatic timelapse composite. The series of images follows the Moon's edge from beginning through the end of totality during April 8's solar eclipse from Durango, Mexico. They also capture pinkish prominences of plasma arcing high above the edge of the active Sun. One of the first places in North America visited by the Moon's shadow on April 8, totality in Durango lasted about 3 minutes and 46 seconds.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: palm tree pinholes
Credit & Copyright: Daniel Korona
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day


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