Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2020 Oct 21 0809 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=4 - Unsettled
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
4.29 protons/cm3
355 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
8.89 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 451 km/s at 20/0836Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 19/2312Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0014Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 131 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on days two and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2020 Oct 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21 to Oct 23 2020
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
Forecast High  
4
5 G1
5 G1
00-03UT 3 4 4
03-06UT 2 5 G1 5 G1
06-09UT 4 4 4
09-12UT 3 3 4
12-15UT 3 3 3
15-18UT 3 2 3
18-21UT 4 2 2
21-00UT 3 3 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
1
1
3
2
4
3
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Oct 21 to Oct 23
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 30% 40% 40%
Minor Storm 10% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 1% 10% 10%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 5% 5%
Minor Storm 30% 25% 25%
Major-severe storm 40% 65% 65%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21 to Oct 23 2020
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21 to Oct 23 2020
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2020 Oct 19 0120 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2020 Oct 19 75 5 2
2020 Oct 20 74 8 3
2020 Oct 21 74 15 4
2020 Oct 22 74 18 5 G1
2020 Oct 23 74 20 5 G1
2020 Oct 24 74 20 5 G1
2020 Oct 25 74 20 5 G1
2020 Oct 26 72 15 4
2020 Oct 27 72 12 3
2020 Oct 28 72 10 3
2020 Oct 29 72 8 3
2020 Oct 30 72 5 2
2020 Oct 31 74 5 2
2020 Nov 01 74 5 2
2020 Nov 02 74 5 2
2020 Nov 03 74 5 2
2020 Nov 04 74 5 2
2020 Nov 05 74 5 2
2020 Nov 06 74 5 2
2020 Nov 07 74 5 2
2020 Nov 08 75 5 2
2020 Nov 09 75 5 2
2020 Nov 10 75 5 2
2020 Nov 11 75 5 2
2020 Nov 12 75 5 2
2020 Nov 13 75 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 75 4 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 355 km/sec 4.29 p/cm3 Bt 8.89 nT Bz -0.02 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 21 Oct 2020 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (11)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


A Night Sky Vista from Sardinia
A Night Sky Vista from Sardinia
2020 October 21

Explanation: How many famous sky objects can you find in this image? The featured dark sky composite combines over 60 exposures spanning over 220 degrees to create a veritable menagerie of night sky wonders. Visible celestial icons include the Belt of Orion, the Orion Nebula, the Andromeda Galaxy, the California Nebula, and bright stars Sirius and Betelgeuse. You can verify that you found these, if you did, by checking an annotated version of the image. A bit harder, though, is finding Polaris and the Big Dipper. Also discernible are several meteors from the Quandrantids meteor shower, red and green airglow, and two friends of the astrophotographer. The picture was captured in January from Sardinia, Italy. You can see sky wonders in your own night sky tonight -- including more meteors than usual -- because tonight is near peak of the yearly Orionids meteor shower.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: open space
Credit & Copyright: Tomáš Slovinský
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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