Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2018 Apr 18 1430 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=0 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
B4.06 - Normal
A5.35 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
B1.4 - Normal 2018-04-18
A4.05 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
11.42 protons/cm3
286 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
1.53 (Bt) - Normal
0.470 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 108 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Apr 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Apr, 20 Apr, 21 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 313 km/s at 18/0235Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 18/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 18/1543Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4403 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (19 Apr), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (21 Apr).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Apr 19 0031 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19 to Apr 21 2018
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
Forecast High  
4
3
2
00-03UT 2 3 2
03-06UT 1 2 2
06-09UT 1 2 1
09-12UT 1 2 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 3 2 1
18-21UT 4 2 1
21-00UT 4 3 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Apr 19 to Apr 21
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 35% 30% 10%
Minor Storm 20% 10% 1%
Major-severe storm 5% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 20%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 20%
Major-severe storm 45% 35% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19 to Apr 21 2018
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19 to Apr 21 2018
Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr 21
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Apr 16 0127 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Apr 16 72 5 2
2018 Apr 17 72 5 2
2018 Apr 18 72 5 2
2018 Apr 19 72 12 4
2018 Apr 20 72 10 4
2018 Apr 21 72 5 2
2018 Apr 22 72 5 2
2018 Apr 23 69 5 2
2018 Apr 24 69 5 2
2018 Apr 25 69 5 2
2018 Apr 26 69 5 2
2018 Apr 27 69 5 2
2018 Apr 28 69 5 2
2018 Apr 29 69 5 2
2018 Apr 30 69 5 2
2018 May 01 69 5 2
2018 May 02 69 5 2
2018 May 03 69 5 2
2018 May 04 69 5 2
2018 May 05 69 5 2
2018 May 06 70 10 4
2018 May 07 70 15 4
2018 May 08 70 15 4
2018 May 09 70 10 4
2018 May 10 70 10 4
2018 May 11 70 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A4.05 71 6 0

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 286 km/sec 11.42 p/cm3 Bt 1.53 nT Bz -0.64 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0825 UTC - 19 Apr 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


NGC 7635: The Bubble Nebula
NGC 7635: The Bubble Nebula
2018 April 19

Explanation: Blown by the wind from a massive star, this interstellar apparition has a surprisingly familiar shape. Cataloged as NGC 7635, it is also known simply as The Bubble Nebula. Although it looks delicate, the 7 light-year diameter bubble offers evidence of violent processes at work. Above and left of the Bubble's center is a hot, O-type star, several hundred thousand times more luminous and some 45 times more massive than the Sun. A fierce stellar wind and intense radiation from that star has blasted out the structure of glowing gas against denser material in a surrounding molecular cloud. The intriguing Bubble Nebula and associated cloud complex lie a mere 7,100 light-years away toward the boastful constellation Cassiopeia. This sharp, tantalizing view of the cosmic bubble is a composite of Hubble Space Telescope image data from 2016, reprocessed to present the nebula's intense narrowband emission in an approximate true color scheme.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: pixels in space
Credit : NASA, ESA, Hubble Heritage Team - Reprocessing by Maksim Kakitsev
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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