Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2023 Feb 07 1458 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 4.00 - Unsettled
Kp= 3.00 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M1.6 - R1 Class Flare
M1.6 - R1 Class Flare
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C6.2-Active 2023-02-07
C2.78 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
1.23 protons/cm3
471km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
5.00 (Bt) - Normal
0.417 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 37 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Feb 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 06/1212Z from Region 3211 (S17W57). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (07 Feb, 08 Feb, 09 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 521 km/s at 06/2008Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 06/0532Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 06/0459Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 143 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Feb 07 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 07-Feb 09 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 07 to Feb 09 2023
Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09
Forecast High  
4.00
3.33
2.67
00-03UT 4.00 3.00 2.67
03-06UT 4.00 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.33 2.33 2.00
09-12UT 3.67 2.67 2.00
12-15UT 3.67 2.00 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.00 2.00
18-21UT 3.33 2.33 2.33
21-00UT 3.33 3.00 2.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3.67
4.00
4.00
3.33
3.67
3.33
3.00
3.00
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Feb 07 to Feb 09
Middle Latitudes Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09
Active 30% 25% 20%
Minor Storm 10% 10% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09
Active 10% 15% 20%
Minor Storm 25% 30% 30%
Major-severe storm 40% 35% 25%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 07 to Feb 09 2023
Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 07 to Feb 09 2023
Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb 09
Class: C-flare 99% 95% 95%
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
PCAF Updated: Tue, 07 Feb 2023, 00:00:00 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 09 Feb.

Region Flare Probabilities for Feb 07, 2023
Region Class C M X P
3207 5% 1% 1% 1%
3209 10% 1% 1% 1%
3210 5% 1% 1% 1%
3211 25% 5% 1% 1%
3212 10% 1% 1% 1%
3213 35% 1% 1% 1%
3214 25% 5% 1% 1%
3215 5% 1% 1% 1%
3216 5% 1% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Feb 06 0112 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2023 Feb 06 150 10 3
2023 Feb 07 160 15 4
2023 Feb 08 155 15 4
2023 Feb 09 155 12 3
2023 Feb 10 160 8 3
2023 Feb 11 155 5 2
2023 Feb 12 155 5 2
2023 Feb 13 155 5 2
2023 Feb 14 150 5 2
2023 Feb 15 150 5 2
2023 Feb 16 150 5 2
2023 Feb 17 150 5 2
2023 Feb 18 150 8 3
2023 Feb 19 145 8 3
2023 Feb 20 140 5 2
2023 Feb 21 135 5 2
2023 Feb 22 130 10 3
2023 Feb 23 135 10 3
2023 Feb 24 130 10 3
2023 Feb 25 130 5 2
2023 Feb 26 130 5 2
2023 Feb 27 125 8 3
2023 Feb 28 130 5 2
2023 Mar 01 130 5 2
2023 Mar 02 130 8 3
2023 Mar 03 130 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C2.78 185 19 3.00

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 471 km/sec 1.23 p/cm3 Bt 5.00 nT Bz -1.70 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun
Sunspots last 30 days
Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 07 Feb 2023 - Latest Sun Spots (139)

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


A Comet and Two Dippers
A Comet and Two Dippers
2023 February 7

Explanation: Can you still see the comet? Yes. Even as C/2022 E3 (ZTF) fades, there is still time to see it if you know where and when to look. Geometrically, Comet ZTF has passed its closest to both the Sun and the Earth and is now headed back to the outer Solar System. Its orbit around the Sun has it gliding across the northern sky all month, after passing near Polaris and both the Big and Little Dippers last month. Pictured, Comet ZTF was photographed between the two dippers in late January while sporting an ion tail that extended over 10 degrees. Now below naked-eye visibility, Comet ZTF can be found with binoculars or a small telescope and a good sky map. A good time to see the comet over the next week is after the Sun sets -- but before the Moon rises. The comet will move nearly in front of Mars in a few days

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: wind star
Credit & Copyright: Petr Horalek / Institute of Physics in Opava
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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