Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2018 Oct 20 1716 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A1.87 - Normal
A1.70 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B2.3 - Normal 2018-10-13
A1.11 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
9.22 protons/cm3
381 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
7.40 (Bt) - Normal
0.407 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 293 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 314 km/s at 20/0659Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2033Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/2021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1273 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2018 Oct 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21 to Oct 23 2018
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
Forecast High  
3
2
2
00-03UT 0 1 2
03-06UT 0 2 1
06-09UT 0 1 2
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 2 1 1
15-18UT 3 1 1
18-21UT 3 2 1
21-00UT 3 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Oct 21 to Oct 23
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 20% 20% 20%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 20%
Major-severe storm 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21 to Oct 23 2018
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21 to Oct 23 2018
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2018 Oct 15 0146 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2018 Oct 15 72 10 3
2018 Oct 16 72 5 2
2018 Oct 17 72 5 2
2018 Oct 18 72 12 4
2018 Oct 19 72 18 5 G1
2018 Oct 20 72 10 3
2018 Oct 21 72 5 3
2018 Oct 22 70 10 3
2018 Oct 23 70 8 3
2018 Oct 24 70 5 2
2018 Oct 25 69 5 2
2018 Oct 26 69 10 3
2018 Oct 27 69 5 2
2018 Oct 28 69 5 2
2018 Oct 29 69 5 2
2018 Oct 30 69 5 2
2018 Oct 31 69 5 2
2018 Nov 01 69 5 2
2018 Nov 02 69 5 2
2018 Nov 03 69 22 5 G1
2018 Nov 04 69 20 5 G1
2018 Nov 05 70 15 4
2018 Nov 06 70 15 4
2018 Nov 07 72 8 3
2018 Nov 08 72 5 2
2018 Nov 09 72 12 3



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A1.11 70 2 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 381 km/sec 9.22 p/cm3 Bt 7.40 nT Bz -2.57 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 21 Oct 2018 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Meteor, Comet, and Seagull (Nebula)
Meteor, Comet, and Seagull (Nebula)
2018 October 21

Explanation: A meteor, a comet, and a photogenic nebula have all been captured in this single image. The closest and most fleeting is the streaking meteor on the upper right -- it was visible for less than a second. The meteor, which disintegrated in Earth's atmosphere, was likely a small bit of debris from the nucleus of Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner, coincidentally the comet captured in the same image. Comet 21P, pictured across the inner Solar System from Earth, is distinctive for its long dust tail spread horizontally across the image center. This comet has been visible with binoculars for the past few months but is now fading as it heads back out to the orbit of Jupiter. Farthest out at 3,500 light years distant is the IC 2177, the Seagull Nebula, visible on the left. The comparatively vast Seagull Nebula, with a wingspan on order 250 light-years, will likely remain visible for hundreds of thousands of years. Long exposures, taken about two weeks ago from Iwaki-City in Japan, were combined to capture the image's faintest elements. You, too, could see a meteor like this -- and perhaps sooner than you might think: tonight is the peak of the Orionids meteor shower.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: lunar shake down
Credit & Copyright: Takao Sambommatsu
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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