Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2021 Apr 21 0459 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=2 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
3.94 protons/cm3
497km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.43 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 19/2342Z from Region 2816 (S24E21). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (21 Apr, 22 Apr) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three (23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 687 km/s at 19/2348Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/0222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/2342Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13356 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Apr, 23 Apr) and quiet levels on day two (22 Apr).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Apr 21 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 21-Apr 23 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 21 to Apr 23 2021
Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23
Forecast High  
3
2
3
00-03UT 2 2 2
03-06UT 3 2 2
06-09UT 2 2 2
09-12UT 2 1 2
12-15UT 2 1 2
15-18UT 2 1 2
18-21UT 1 1 2
21-00UT 2 1 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
2
3
3
2
3
2
2
2
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Apr 21 to Apr 23
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 25%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 10%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 25% 20% 30%
Major-severe storm 20% 20% 40%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 21 to Apr 23 2021
Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 21 to Apr 23 2021
Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr 23
R1-R2 15% 15% 15%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is slight chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts on Apr 21-23.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 Apr 19 0151 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2021 Apr 19 78 12 4
2021 Apr 20 75 8 3
2021 Apr 21 75 5 2
2021 Apr 22 72 5 2
2021 Apr 23 70 8 3
2021 Apr 24 70 12 4
2021 Apr 25 70 5 2
2021 Apr 26 70 5 2
2021 Apr 27 68 10 3
2021 Apr 28 68 8 3
2021 Apr 29 68 5 2
2021 Apr 30 68 5 2
2021 May 01 68 5 2
2021 May 02 68 5 2
2021 May 03 70 5 2
2021 May 04 72 15 4
2021 May 05 72 5 2
2021 May 06 72 5 2
2021 May 07 72 5 2
2021 May 08 72 8 3
2021 May 09 72 5 2
2021 May 10 75 5 2
2021 May 11 75 8 3
2021 May 12 75 12 4
2021 May 13 75 20 5 G1
2021 May 14 75 30 5 G1



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 80 13 2

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 497 km/sec 3.94 p/cm3 Bt 2.43 nT Bz -0.34 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 1425 UTC - 21 Apr 2021 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (54)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Centaurus A’s Warped Magnetic Fields
Centaurus A’s Warped Magnetic Fields
2021 April 21

Explanation: When galaxies collide -- what happens to their magnetic fields? To help find out, NASA pointed SOFIA, its flying 747, at galactic neighbor Centaurus A to observe the emission of polarized dust -- which traces magnetic fields. Cen A's unusual shape results from the clash of two galaxies with jets powered by gas accreting onto a central supermassive black hole. In the resulting featured image, SOFIA-derived magnetic streamlines are superposed on ESO (visible: white), APEX (submillimeter: orange), Chandra (X-rays: blue), and Spitzer (infrared: red) images. The magnetic fields were found to be parallel to the dust lanes on the outskirts of the galaxy but distorted near the center. Gravitational forces near the black hole accelerate ions and enhance the magnetic field. In sum, the collision not only combined the galaxies’ masses -- but amplified their magnetic fields. These results provide new insights into how magnetic fields evolved in the early universe when mergers were more common.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: open space
Credit : Optical: European Southern Observatory (ESO) Wide Field Imager; Submillimeter: Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy/ESO/Atacama Pathfinder Experiment (APEX)/A.Weiss et al; X-ray and Infrared: NASA/Chandra/R. Kraft; JPL-Caltech/J. Keene; Text: Joan Schmelz (USRA)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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