Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 May 28 1443 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=7 Storm!
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
C3.38 - Active
B5.82 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
C1.0 - Active 2017-05-28
B2.81 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
6.35 protons/cm3
345 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
12.27 (Bt) Moderate
0.444 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at 28/1928Z from Region 2659 (N13W70). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (29 May, 30 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 463 km/s at 27/2243Z. Total IMF reached 23 nT at 27/2222Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -20 nT at 27/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (30 May, 31 May).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 May 29 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale G3). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 29-May 31 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown May 29 to May 31 2017
May 29 May 30 May 31
Forecast High  
4
2
2
00-03UT 4 2 1
03-06UT 4 1 2
06-09UT 3 1 2
09-12UT 3 1 1
12-15UT 2 2 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 1 2 1
21-00UT 2 1 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
6 G2
7 G3
6 G2
5 G1
4
2
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - May 29 to May 31
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 20% 10% 10%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 15% 15%
Major-severe storm 15% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on day one (29 May) due to continuing effects from the 23 May CME.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 29 to May 31 2017
May 29 May 30 May 31
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for May 29 to May 31 2017
May 29 May 30 May 31
R1-R2 5% 5% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 May 22 0235 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 May 22 74 12 4
2017 May 23 76 8 3
2017 May 24 76 8 3
2017 May 25 76 5 2
2017 May 26 76 5 2
2017 May 27 76 5 2
2017 May 28 74 5 2
2017 May 29 74 5 2
2017 May 30 72 5 2
2017 May 31 72 5 2
2017 Jun 01 72 5 2
2017 Jun 02 72 5 2
2017 Jun 03 72 5 2
2017 Jun 04 70 5 2
2017 Jun 05 70 5 2
2017 Jun 06 70 5 2
2017 Jun 07 70 5 2
2017 Jun 08 70 5 2
2017 Jun 09 72 5 2
2017 Jun 10 72 10 4
2017 Jun 11 72 12 4
2017 Jun 12 74 5 2
2017 Jun 13 74 5 2
2017 Jun 14 74 8 3
2017 Jun 15 74 10 4
2017 Jun 16 74 20 5 G1



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B2.81 79 51 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 345 km/sec 6.35 p/cm3 Bt 12.27 nT Bz 7.87 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 28 May 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (21)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Collapse in Hebes Chasma on Mars
Collapse in Hebes Chasma on Mars
2017 May 28

Explanation: What's happened in Hebes Chasma on Mars? Hebes Chasma is a depression just north of the enormous Valles Marineris canyon. Since the depression is unconnected to other surface features, it is unclear where the internal material went. Inside Hebes Chasma is Hebes Mensa, a 5 kilometer high mesa that appears to have undergone an unusual partial collapse -- a collapse that might be providing clues. The featured image, taken by ESA's robotic Mars Express spacecraft currently orbiting Mars, shows great details of the chasm and the unusual horseshoe shaped indentation in the central mesa. Material from the mesa appears to have flowed onto the floor of the chasm, while a possible dark layer appears to have pooled like ink on a downslope landing. A recent hypothesis holds that salty rock composes some lower layers in Hebes Chasma, with the salt dissolving in melted ice flows that drained through holes into an underground aquifer.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: beneath jupiter
Credit & Copyright: ESA/DLR/FU Berlin (G. Neukum)
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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