Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2019 Sep 17 2228 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A7.28 - Normal
A6.93 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.2 - Normal 2019-07-07
A5.96 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
6.13 protons/cm3
368 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.51 (Bt) - Normal
0.601 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 474 km/s at 18/0041Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1091 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 Sep 19 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2019 is 1 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19 to Sep 21 2019
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21
Forecast High  
1
1
1
00-03UT 1 1 1
03-06UT 1 1 1
06-09UT 1 1 1
09-12UT 1 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 1 1 1
21-00UT 1 1 1
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Sep 19 to Sep 21
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 5% 5% 5%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 1%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 15% 15% 20%
Major-severe storm 10% 10% 10%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19 to Sep 21 2019
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19 to Sep 21 2019
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2019 Sep 16 0139 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm		 Planetary
A Index		 Largest
Kp Index
2019 Sep 16 68 6 3
2019 Sep 17 68 8 3
2019 Sep 18 68 10 3
2019 Sep 19 68 5 2
2019 Sep 20 68 5 2
2019 Sep 21 68 5 2
2019 Sep 22 68 5 2
2019 Sep 23 69 8 3
2019 Sep 24 69 5 2
2019 Sep 25 69 5 2
2019 Sep 26 69 10 3
2019 Sep 27 69 35 6 G2
2019 Sep 28 69 45 6 G2
2019 Sep 29 69 20 5 G1
2019 Sep 30 69 10 4
2019 Oct 01 69 8 3
2019 Oct 02 69 10 4
2019 Oct 03 69 8 3
2019 Oct 04 69 5 2
2019 Oct 05 69 5 2
2019 Oct 06 69 12 3
2019 Oct 07 70 5 2
2019 Oct 08 68 5 2
2019 Oct 09 68 5 2
2019 Oct 10 68 8 3
2019 Oct 11 68 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A5.96 66 9 1

Solar X-ray Flux
 Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 368 km/sec 6.13 p/cm3 Bt 2.51 nT Bz -1.07 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
 Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
 Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.

Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
 SDO AIA 0193
 SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
 SDO AIA 304 211 171
 SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.
Solar Data - Issued: Sun Spots Unavailable
Error reading Sun Spots data. - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
 F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
 Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.


Near Earth Asteroids Near Earth Asteroids


Potentially Hazardous  Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.
On September 19, 2019 there were 2018 potentially hazardous asteroids.
Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters:
 Asteroid
Date (UT)
Miss Distance
Velocity (km/s)
Diameter (m)
2010 RM82
2019-Sep-13
18.2 LD
14.6
23
2013 CV83
2019-Sep-13
16.1 LD
13.1
62
504800
2019-Sep-14
13.9 LD
14.4
155
2019 RT
2019-Sep-14
13.7 LD
16.6
50
2019 RQ2
2019-Sep-14
9.4 LD
17.2
29
467317
2019-Sep-14
13.9 LD
6.4
389
2019 JF1
2019-Sep-16
11.2 LD
4.3
62
2018 FU1
2019-Sep-16
18.4 LD
4.7
16
2019 RC
2019-Sep-16
17.4 LD
15.1
157
2019 SC
2019-Sep-19
1.4 LD
13.5
12
2019 RP2
2019-Sep-20
8.5 LD
1.6
6
2017 SL16
2019-Sep-21
7.9 LD
6.5
25
2017 SM21
2019-Sep-21
11.5 LD
9.6
20
2019 RE2
2019-Sep-21
19.7 LD
8.7
40
2019 RB3
2019-Sep-21
19 LD
11.8
50
2019 QZ1
2019-Sep-22
12.5 LD
8.2
77
523934
2019-Sep-24
10.9 LD
22.3
257
2019 QY3
2019-Sep-26
13.9 LD
8.4
39
2017 KP27
2019-Sep-26
4.2 LD
4.7
25
2006 QV89
2019-Sep-27
18.1 LD
4.1
31
2018 FK5
2019-Oct-01
13.3 LD
10.5
8
2018 LG4
2019-Oct-02
13.8 LD
8.1
12
2017 TJ4
2019-Oct-05
13.5 LD
8.9
32
2019 RK
2019-Oct-08
16.7 LD
3.1
31
162082
2019-Oct-25
16.2 LD
11.2
589
2017 TG5
2019-Oct-25
14.4 LD
11.9
34
2015 JD1
2019-Nov-03
12.9 LD
11.9
269
2010 JG
2019-Nov-12
19.6 LD
14.9
235

Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.
   Source: Space Weather.com

 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Along the Western Veil
Along the Western Veil
2019 September 19

Explanation: Delicate in appearance, these filaments of shocked, glowing gas, are draped across planet Earth's sky toward the constellation of Cygnus. They form the western part of the Veil Nebula. The Veil Nebula itself is a large supernova remnant, an expanding cloud born of the death explosion of a massive star. Light from the original supernova explosion likely reached Earth over 5,000 years ago. Blasted out in the cataclysmic event, the interstellar shock wave plows through space sweeping up and exciting interstellar material. The glowing filaments are really more like long ripples in a sheet seen almost edge on, remarkably well separated into atomic hydrogen (red) and oxygen (blue-green) gas. Also known as the Cygnus Loop, the Veil Nebula now spans nearly 3 degrees or about 6 times the diameter of the full Moon. While that translates to over 70 light-years at its estimated distance of 1,500 light-years, this telescopic image of the western portion spans about half that distance. Brighter parts of the western Veil are recognized as separate nebulae, including The Witch's Broom (NGC 6960) along the top of this view and Pickering's Triangle (NGC 6979) below and left.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: pixels in space
Credit & Copyright: Min Xie
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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