Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2021 Oct 19 1803 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=2 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A8.43 - Normal
A7.72 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
Standby - New Event
A0.10 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
4.92 protons/cm3
315 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.74 (Bt) - Normal
Missing Data




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Oct, 26 Oct, 27 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 373 km/s at 24/2052Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/0820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 24/0831Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 151 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (25 Oct, 26 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Oct).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2021 Oct 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2021 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24 to Oct 26 2021
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
Forecast High  
2
2
2
00-03UT 1 2 2
03-06UT 1 1 1
06-09UT 1 1 1
09-12UT 1 1 1
12-15UT 1 1 1
15-18UT 1 1 1
18-21UT 2 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Oct 25 to Oct 27
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 10% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 1% 1% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 25%
Major-severe storm 10% 20% 25%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24 to Oct 26 2021
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24 to Oct 26 2021
Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct 26
R1-R2 10% 10% 10%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for isolated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackout conditions over 24-26 Oct.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2021 Oct 18 0131 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2021 Oct 18 78 12 4
2021 Oct 19 80 12 4
2021 Oct 20 80 8 3
2021 Oct 21 80 8 3
2021 Oct 22 80 8 3
2021 Oct 23 80 5 2
2021 Oct 24 80 5 2
2021 Oct 25 85 10 3
2021 Oct 26 90 5 2
2021 Oct 27 95 5 2
2021 Oct 28 90 5 2
2021 Oct 29 88 5 2
2021 Oct 30 88 5 2
2021 Oct 31 85 5 2
2021 Nov 01 85 5 2
2021 Nov 02 85 8 3
2021 Nov 03 85 5 2
2021 Nov 04 85 5 2
2021 Nov 05 85 5 2
2021 Nov 06 85 12 4
2021 Nov 07 85 10 3
2021 Nov 08 85 8 3
2021 Nov 09 85 5 2
2021 Nov 10 85 5 2
2021 Nov 11 85 5 2
2021 Nov 12 80 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.10 93 5 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 315 km/sec 4.92 p/cm3 Bt 4.74 nT Bz -0.53 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 2025 UTC - 24 Oct 2021 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (32)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Halloween and the Ghost Head Nebula
Halloween and the Ghost Head Nebula
2021 October 24

Explanation: Halloween's origin is ancient and astronomical. Since the fifth century BC, Halloween has been celebrated as a cross-quarter day, a day halfway between an equinox (equal day / equal night) and a solstice (minimum day / maximum night in the northern hemisphere). With a modern calendar however, even though Halloween occurs next week, the real cross-quarter day will occur the week after. Another cross-quarter day is Groundhog Day. Halloween's modern celebration retains historic roots in dressing to scare away the spirits of the dead. Perhaps a fitting tribute to this ancient holiday is this view of the Ghost Head Nebula taken with the Hubble Space Telescope. Similar to the icon of a fictional ghost, NGC 2080 is actually a star forming region in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a satellite galaxy of our own Milky Way Galaxy. The Ghost Head Nebula (NGC 2080) spans about 50 light-years and is shown in representative colors.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: highway to hole
Credit : Mohammad Heydari-Malayeri (Observatoire de Paris) et al., ESA, NASA
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

powered by Cumulus v1.9.3 (1059)
Ambient Weather VWS v14.00
Top Website Map Copyright © 2007 - 2021 Foresthillweather.com Never base important decisions on this or any weather information obtained from the Internet