Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alart ) - Issue Time: 2017 Sep 21 0500 UTC - Read More
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=3 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alart 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alart 2-hr max
B8.44 - Normal
A6.52 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alart
B1.0 - Normal 2017-09-20
A5.60 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
5.29 protons/cm3
457km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
3.53 (Bt) - Normal
0.510 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2017
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 533 km/s at 19/2118Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 20/2016Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 33761 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (21 Sep, 23 Sep) and quiet levels on day two (22 Sep).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2017 Sep 21 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 21-Sep 23 2017 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 21 to Sep 23 2017
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23
Forecast High  
3
2
3
00-03UT 3 2 2
03-06UT 2 1 2
06-09UT 2 1 2
09-12UT 2 1 1
12-15UT 2 1 1
15-18UT 2 1 2
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 2 2 3
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Sep 21 to Sep 23
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 20% 10% 20%
Minor Storm 5% 1% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 20% 25%
Major-severe storm 30% 20% 30%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 21 to Sep 23 2017
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 21 to Sep 23 2017
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2017 Sep 18 0327 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2017 Sep 18 75 15 4
2017 Sep 19 75 12 4
2017 Sep 20 75 10 3
2017 Sep 21 75 5 2
2017 Sep 22 75 5 2
2017 Sep 23 95 8 3
2017 Sep 24 110 18 5 G1
2017 Sep 25 110 12 4
2017 Sep 26 110 8 3
2017 Sep 27 110 20 5 G1
2017 Sep 28 110 20 5 G1
2017 Sep 29 115 20 5 G1
2017 Sep 30 115 18 4
2017 Oct 01 115 15 4
2017 Oct 02 115 12 4
2017 Oct 03 115 8 3
2017 Oct 04 115 5 2
2017 Oct 05 115 5 2
2017 Oct 06 115 5 2
2017 Oct 07 110 5 2
2017 Oct 08 85 5 2
2017 Oct 09 76 5 2
2017 Oct 10 75 5 2
2017 Oct 11 74 25 5 G1
2017 Oct 12 73 25 5 G1
2017 Oct 13 72 25 5 G1



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A5.60 74 10 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 457 km/sec 5.29 p/cm3 Bt 3.53 nT Bz -2.10 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 21 Sep 2017 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (22)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


The Big Corona
The Big Corona
2017 September 20

Explanation: Most photographs don't adequately portray the magnificence of the Sun's corona. Seeing the corona first-hand during a total solar eclipse is unparalleled. The human eye can adapt to see coronal features and extent that average cameras usually cannot. Welcome, however, to the digital age. The featured picture is a combination of forty exposures from one thousandth of a second to two seconds that, together, were digitally combined and processed to highlight faint features of the total solar eclipse that occurred in August of 2017. Clearly visible are intricate layers and glowing caustics of an ever changing mixture of hot gas and magnetic fields in the Sun's corona. Looping prominences appear bright pink just past the Sun's limb. Faint details on the night side of the New Moon can even be made out, illuminated by sunlight reflected from the dayside of the Full Earth.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: open space
Credit & Copyright: Alson Wong
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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