Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2023 Oct 01 0101 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 2.67 - Quiet
Kp= 2.67 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
M1.9 - R1 Class Flare
C1.99 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C1.9-Active 2023-10-03
B8.85 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
7.21 protons/cm3
479km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
4.78 (Bt) - Normal
0.32 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2023
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 02/1246Z from Region 3455 (N25E58). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 488 km/s at 02/0204Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 02/0912Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 02/0648Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 283 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (03 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (04 Oct, 05 Oct).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2023 Oct 03 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 03-Oct 05 2023 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 03 to Oct 05 2023
Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct 05
Forecast High  
4.00
3.00
3.33
00-03UT 3.33 2.33 3.33
03-06UT 4.00 2.67 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.00 2.00
09-12UT 2.33 2.33 3.00
12-15UT 1.67 2.00 3.00
15-18UT 1.33 1.00 3.33
18-21UT 2.00 1.00 3.33
21-00UT 2.33 1.67 3.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1.00
2.33
1.67
1.67
1.67
2.33
1.33
2.67
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Oct 03 to Oct 5
Middle Latitudes Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct 05
Active 30% 20% 35%
Minor Storm 15% 5% 15%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct 05
Active 15% 15% 10%
Minor Storm 20% 20% 30%
Major-severe storm 30% 20% 55%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 03 to Oct 05 2023
Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct 05
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Oct 02 2023 1246 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 03 to Oct 05 2023
Oct 03 Oct 04 Oct 05
Class: C-flare 99% 99% 99%
R1-R2 40% 40% 40%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
PCAF Updated: Monday, 02 Oct 2023 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts through 05 Oct.

Region Flare Probabilities for Oct 03, 2023
Region Class C M X P
3447 5% 1% 1% 1%
3448 5% 1% 1% 1%
3449 5% 1% 1% 1%
3450 70% 15% 5% 5%
3451 40% 5% 1% 1%
3452 45% 10% 1% 1%
3453 20% 5% 1% 1%
3454 15% 1% 1% 1%
3455 15% 1% 1% 1%


3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2023 Oct 02 0207 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2023 Oct 02 162 15 4
2023 Oct 03 162 12 4
2023 Oct 04 162 8 3
2023 Oct 05 164 15 4
2023 Oct 06 164 8 3
2023 Oct 07 164 5 2
2023 Oct 08 168 5 2
2023 Oct 09 165 5 2
2023 Oct 10 165 5 2
2023 Oct 11 162 5 2
2023 Oct 12 160 5 2
2023 Oct 13 158 5 2
2023 Oct 14 158 5 2
2023 Oct 15 156 5 2
2023 Oct 16 156 5 2
2023 Oct 17 156 5 2
2023 Oct 18 154 5 2
2023 Oct 19 154 5 2
2023 Oct 20 154 5 2
2023 Oct 21 152 5 2
2023 Oct 22 154 5 2
2023 Oct 23 154 5 2
2023 Oct 24 156 5 2
2023 Oct 25 158 5 2
2023 Oct 26 160 5 2
2023 Oct 27 160 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current B8.85 158 9 2.67

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 479 km/sec 7.21 p/cm3 Bt 4.78 nT Bz -2.43 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Sprite Lightning in High Definition
Sprite Lightning in High Definition
2023 October 2

Explanation: Sometimes lightning occurs out near space. One such lightning type is red sprite lightning, which has only been photographed and studied on Earth over the past 25 years. The origins of all types of lightning remain topics for research, and scientists are still trying to figure out why red sprite lightning occurs at all. Research has shown that following a powerful positive cloud-to-ground lightning strike, red sprites may start as 100-meter balls of ionized air that shoot down from about 80-km high at 10 percent the speed of light. They are quickly followed by a group of upward streaking ionized balls. Featured here is an extraordinarily high-resolution image of a group of red sprites. This image is a single frame lasting only 1/25th of a second from a video taken above Castelnaud Castle in Dordogne, France, about three weeks ago. The sprites quickly vanished -- no sprites were visible even on the very next video frame.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: eye in the sky
Credit & Copyright: Nicolas Escurat
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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