Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2024 Apr 26 2300 UTC - Read More
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp= 5.33 G1-Storm!
Kp= 3.00 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 6-hr max
C6.13 - Active
C3.62 - Active
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
C3.3-Active 2024-04-27
C1.82 - Active
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
1.81 protons/cm3
444km/s Slightly Elevated
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
13.91 (Bt) Moderate
0.32 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 117 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Apr 2024
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at 26/0636Z from Region 3639 (N30W90). There are currently 11 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (27 Apr) and likely to be moderate on day two (28 Apr) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (29 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 387 km/s at 26/0116Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/1515Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 26/1253Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 825 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (27 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Apr). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (27 Apr).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2024 Apr 27 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 27-Apr 29 2024 is 4.00 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 27 to Apr 29 2024
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
Forecast High  
4.00
3.67
2.67
00-03UT 3.67 3.67 2.67
03-06UT 3.00 3.33 2.00
06-09UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
09-12UT 4.00 3.00 2.67
12-15UT 3.00 3.00 2.33
15-18UT 3.00 3.33 2.33
18-21UT 3.00 2.00 2.33
21-00UT 3.67 2.00 2.33
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
3.33
3.00
3.67
5.33 G1
3.00
2.00
3.00
3.00
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Apr 27 to Apr 29
Middle Latitudes Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
Active 35% 30% 20%
Minor Storm 20% 15% 5%
Major-severe storm 5% 1% 1%
High Latitudes Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
Active 10% 15% 15%
Minor Storm 30% 30% 25%
Major-severe storm 50% 45% 30%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 27 to Apr 29 2024
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
S1 or greater 15% 5% 1%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storms on 27 Apr due to the location and flare potential of multiple active regions.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 27 to Apr 29 2024
Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr 29
Class: C-flare 99% 99% 95%
R1-R2 75% 55% 35%
R3 or greater 15% 5% 5%
PCAF Updated: Friday, 26 Apr 2024 UTC
Polar Cap Absorption FCST green

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are expected, with a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) event, on 27 Apr. R1-R2 events are likely on 28 Apr and there is a chance for R1-R2 events on 29 Apr.

Region Flare Probabilities for Apr 27, 2024
Region Class C M X P
3639 5% 1% 1% 1%
3644 10% 1% 1% 1%
3645 0% 0% 0% 0%
3646 25% 5% 1% 1%
3648 40% 10% 1% 1%
3652 10% 1% 1% 1%
3654 60% 20% 5% 1%
3655 10% 1% 1% 1%
3656 5% 1% 1% 1%
3657 10% 1% 1% 1%
3658 25% 5% 1% 1%
3659 5% 1% 1% 1%


27-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2024 Apr 22 0200 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2024 Apr 22 215 10 4
2024 Apr 23 215 15 4
2024 Apr 24 200 10 4
2024 Apr 25 190 12 3
2024 Apr 26 170 15 4
2024 Apr 27 170 15 4
2024 Apr 28 165 12 3
2024 Apr 29 160 8 3
2024 Apr 30 155 7 2
2024 May 01 155 10 3
2024 May 02 160 10 3
2024 May 03 160 10 3
2024 May 04 160 5 2
2024 May 05 160 8 3
2024 May 06 160 8 3
2024 May 07 165 8 3
2024 May 08 170 5 2
2024 May 09 180 5 2
2024 May 10 185 5 2
2024 May 11 190 5 2
2024 May 12 195 5 2
2024 May 13 200 5 2
2024 May 14 210 5 2
2024 May 15 215 5 2
2024 May 16 215 5 2
2024 May 17 212 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current C1.82 153 19 3.00

Solar X-ray Flux 24-hrs
GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux GOES Proton Flux 24-hrs
Planetary k index past 2 Days
1-minute Estimated Planetary k index
Graph showing Planetary k index Graph showing 1-minute Estimated Planetary k index

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 444 km/sec 1.81 p/cm3 Bt 13.91 nT Bz 12.47 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs



Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
Current Sun

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.


Solar Cycle


Graph showing Seven Previous Cycles to date
Daily and Monthly Sunspot
Daily Sunspots Last 30 Days
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Daily Sunspots Last 20 Days
Sunspot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression

The Solar Cycle forecast comes from the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel representing NOAA, NASA and the International Space Environmental Services (ISES). This amounts to the ‘official’ forecast for the solar cycle. The Prediction Panel forecasts the sunspot number expected for solar maximum and has predicted Cycle 25 to reach a maximum of 115 occurring in July, 2025. The error bars on this prediction mean the panel expects the cycle maximum could be between 105-125 with the peak occurring between November 2024 and March 2026.


Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Radio Communications Impact (D-Region Absorption)
Radio Communications Impact

  The D-Region Absorption Product addresses the operational impact of the solar X-ray flux and SEP events on HF radio communication. Long-range communications using high frequency (HF) radio waves (3 - 30 MHz) depend on reflection of the signals in the ionosphere. Radio waves are typically reflected near the peak of the F2 layer (~300 km altitude), but along the path to the F2 peak and back the radio wave signal suffers attenuation due to absorption by the intervening ionosphere.

  The D-Region Absorption Prediction model is used as guidance to understand the HF radio degradation and blackouts this can cause.




 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Regulus and the Dwarf Galaxy
Regulus and the Dwarf Galaxy
2024 April 26

Explanation: In northern hemisphere spring, bright star Regulus is easy to spot above the eastern horizon. The alpha star of the constellation Leo, Regulus is the spiky star centered in this telescopic field of view. A mere 79 light-years distant, Regulus is a hot, rapidly spinning star that is known to be part of a multiple star system. Not quite lost in the glare, the fuzzy patch just below Regulus is diffuse starlight from small galaxy Leo I. Leo I is a dwarf spheroidal galaxy, a member of the Local Group of galaxies dominated by our Milky Way Galaxy and the Andromeda Galaxy (M31). About 800 thousand light-years away, Leo I is thought to be the most distant of the known small satellite galaxies orbiting the Milky Way. But dwarf galaxy Leo I has shown evidence of a supermassive black hole at its center, comparable in mass to the black hole at the center of the Milky Way.

  High Resolution Image
Tomorrow’s Image: all around eclipse
Credit & Copyright: Markus Horn
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day


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