Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast

 Space Weather Observations, Alerts, and Forecast


( Latest Alert ) - Issue Time: 2019 Feb 14 1807 UTC - Read More
ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Geomagnetic Field 24-hr max Current Geomagnetic Field
Kp=1 - Quiet
Kp=1 - Quiet
Solar X-rays Alert 24-hr max Solar X-rays Alert 2-hr max
A1.10 - Normal
A0.93 - Normal
Solar X-rays Last Event max Current Solar X-rays Alert
B1.5 - Normal 2019-01-31
A0.20 - Normal
Current Solar Wind Density Current Solar Wind Speed
6.53 protons/cm3
312 km/sec - Calm
Strength of the IMF (Bt) PRI >10MeV Solar P. 24hr max
2.21 (Bt) - Normal
0.488 pfu - Normal




  Solar activity report




There's something on the wing Solar Flares, Sun spots
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 50 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Feb 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z:
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Feb, 21 Feb, 22 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 18/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 281 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (20 Feb, 21 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (22 Feb).

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 3-Day Forecast - Issued: 2019 Feb 20 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center.

CURRENT TIME
(based on your computer's time):   UTC..
Local

Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 20 to Feb 22 2019
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22
Forecast High  
4
4
3
00-03UT 1 4 3
03-06UT 2 4 3
06-09UT 2 3 3
09-12UT 2 3 2
12-15UT 2 3 2
15-18UT 3 2 2
18-21UT 3 2 2
21-00UT 4 3 2
Past 24 Hour Planetary Kp Now
1
1
0
1
0
1
1
1
Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities For - Feb 20 to Feb 22
Middle Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 25% 30% 15%
Minor Storm 10% 15% 5%
Major-severe storm 1% 1% 1%
High Latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr 48-72 hr
Active 15% 15% 20%
Minor Storm 25% 30% 25%
Major-severe storm 35% 40% 20%

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20 to Feb 22 2019
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.

Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20 to Feb 22 2019
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22
R1-R2 1% 1% 1%
R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.



3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast


Product: 27 day Space Weather Outlook - Issued: 2019 Feb 18 0458 UTC

Radio Flux
10.7 cm
Planetary
A Index
Largest
Kp Index
2019 Feb 18 70 5 2
2019 Feb 19 70 12 4
2019 Feb 20 70 16 4
2019 Feb 21 70 12 3
2019 Feb 22 70 8 3
2019 Feb 23 70 5 2
2019 Feb 24 70 5 2
2019 Feb 25 70 5 2
2019 Feb 26 70 5 2
2019 Feb 27 68 15 4
2019 Feb 28 68 18 5 G1
2019 Mar 01 68 18 5 G1
2019 Mar 02 68 12 4
2019 Mar 03 68 8 3
2019 Mar 04 68 5 2
2019 Mar 05 68 8 3
2019 Mar 06 68 5 2
2019 Mar 07 68 8 3
2019 Mar 08 68 10 4
2019 Mar 09 68 8 3
2019 Mar 10 68 5 2
2019 Mar 11 68 5 2
2019 Mar 12 70 12 4
2019 Mar 13 70 10 3
2019 Mar 14 70 5 2
2019 Mar 15 70 5 2



Real Time Solar X-ray and Solar Wind


Solar X-rays Flux 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
Current A0.20 70 3 1

Solar X-ray Flux
Satellite Environment Plot
Graph showing Real-Time Solar X-ray Flux Graph showing Real-Time Satellite Environment Plot
This plot shows 3-days of 5-minute solar x-ray flux values measured on the SWPC primary and secondary GOES satellites. The Satellite Environment Plot combines satellite and ground-based data to provide an overview of the current geosynchronous satellite environment.

SolarWind Speed Density Bt Bz
Current 312 km/sec 6.53 p/cm3 Bt 2.21 nT Bz -1.78 nT

Graph - Solar Wind Speed & Temp - Past 24hrs Graph - Solar Wind Density - Past 24hrs
Graph - Strength of the IMF (Bt) Past 24hrs Graph - Direction of the IMF (Bz) Past 24hrs

Graph - Solar Wind, (Bz), (Bt) - Past 12hrs

Latest LASCO Solar Corona
Real-Time Solar Wind
Graph showing current solar cycle progression (click to enlarge) Graph showing Real-Time Solar Wind
Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO). Real-Time Solar Wind data broadcast from NASA's ACE satellite.

Auroral Activity Extrapolated from NOAA POES


Northern Hemi Auroral Map
Southern Hemi Auroral Map
Current Northern hemispheric power input map (click to enlarge) Current Southern hemispheric power input map

Instruments on board the NOAA Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) continually monitor the power flux carried by the protons and electrons that produce aurora in the atmosphere. SWPC has developed a technique that uses the power flux observations obtained during a single pass of the satellite over a polar region (which takes about 25 minutes) to estimate the total power deposited in an entire polar region by these auroral particles. The power input estimate is converted to an auroral activity index that ranges from 1 to 10.


Real Time Images of the Sun


SDO AIA 0171
SDO AIA 0193
SDO MDI Sun Spots
Latest SDO AIA 0171 Latest SDO AIA 0193 Latest SDO HMI Sun Spots
SDO AIA 304
SDO AIA 304 211 171
SDO AIA 211
Latest SDO AIA 304 Latest SDO AIA 304 211 171 image of the sun Latest SDO AIA 211

The sun is constantly monitored for sun spots and coronal mass ejections. EIT (Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope) images the solar atmosphere at several wavelengths, and therefore, shows solar material at different temperatures. In the images taken at 304 Angstrom the bright material is at 60,000 to 80,000 degrees Kelvin. In those taken at 171 Angstrom, at 1 million degrees. 195 Angstrom images correspond to about 1.5 million Kelvin, 284 Angstrom to 2 million degrees. The hotter the temperature, the higher you look in the solar atmosphere.

Solar Data - Issued: 0225 UTC - 20 Feb 2019 - Yesterday's Sun Spots (0)
Sunspots last 30 days

Radio Frequency Propagation


VHF and HF Band Conditions

Current HF Propagation Conditions (click to enlarge)
Optimum HF Frequencies for Distant Communications Ionopheric Propagation


Solar Cycle


Sun Spot Number Progression
F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
Graph showing Sun Spot Number Progression Graph showing F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Sun Spot Number Progression. This plot shows the F10.7cm Radio Flux Progression.

Ap Progression
Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24
This plot shows the Solar Cycle Ap Progression. Sunspot Cycle 22, 23, and 24

The Solar Cycle is observed by counting the frequency and placement of sunspots visible on the Sun. Solar minimum occurred in December, 2008.
Solar maximum was expected to occur in May, 2013.



 Astronomy Picture of the Day


Comet Iwamoto Before Spiral Galaxy NGC 2903
2019 February 19

Explanation: It isn't every night that a comet passes a galaxy. Last Thursday, though, binocular comet C/2018 Y1 (Iwamoto) moved nearly in front of a spiral galaxy of approximately the same brightness: NGC 2903. Comet Iwamoto was discovered late last year and orbits the Sun in a long ellipse. It last visited the inner Solar System during the Middle Ages, around the year 648. The comet reached its closest point to the Sun -- between Earth and Mars -- on February 6, and its closest point to Earth a few days ago, on February 13. The featured time-lapse video condenses almost three hours into about ten seconds, and was captured last week from Switzerland. At that time Comet Iwamoto, sporting a green coma, was about 10 light minutes distant, while spiral galaxy NGC 2903 remained about 30 million light years away. Two satellites zip diagonally through the field about a third of the way through the video. Typically, a few comets each year become as bright as Comet Iwamoto.

  
Tomorrow’s Image: a dangerous star
Credit & Copyright: Norbert Span
 Courtesy of Astronomy Picture of the Day Index - Main Page & Astronomy Picture of the Day

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