NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon May 16 18:21:02 UTC 2022
May 16, 2022 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 42,021 861,599 Lubbock, TX...Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 161819

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

   Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF WEST INTO NORTHWEST TX...

   The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor
   adjustments were made with this update.

   ..Weinman.. 05/16/2022

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022/

   ...Synopsis...
   A weak upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the
   western CONUS on Tuesday, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs
   move from the central/southern Rockies into the High Plains. A
   surface low is forecast to deepen across southeast CO, with a
   dryline expected to extend southward across portions of west TX. 

   ...Parts of NM/west TX into the southern High Plains...
   While the primary Pacific cold front/dryline may remain over west TX
   during the afternoon, strong heating/mixing ahead of this feature
   will result in the development of a secondary dryline further east
   from southwest OK into central TX. The strongest low-level flow is
   expected immediately to the west of this secondary dryline,
   associated with a rather strong low-level jet. Areas from the TX
   South Plains into the Big Country and Permian Basin may see
   sustained winds of 20-25 mph as RH drops below 15%, resulting in
   critical fire-weather conditions. Near-critical conditions may
   extend into portions of southeast NM, though low-level flow is
   currently expected to be somewhat weaker in this area.

   In addition to the critical wind/RH threat, isolated high-based
   thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern High
   Plains during the late afternoon/evening, with very limited rainfall
   potential, so an isolated dry-thunderstorm area has been included
   for parts of this region.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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