NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 20 19:16:03 UTC 2019
Jan 20, 2019 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 32,265 1,165,338 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Socorro, TX...Hobbs, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201915

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0115 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW
   MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...

   The ongoing forecast is on track. Fine fuel moisture in the area has
   fallen to 5-6% per latest guidance and should only decrease further
   with dry conditions expected the rest of today into tomorrow. Even
   with more marginal heavy fuel conditions, surface winds in some
   areas will near 25-30 mph allowing for potentially rapid fire spread
   in grasses. Elevated meteorological conditions may extend as far
   north as the Chautauqua Plateau in southeast Colorado, but recent
   snowfall there and southward into the Oklahoma Panhandle should keep
   fine fuel moisture too high for concerns. Please see the previous
   discussion for further details.

   ..Wendt.. 01/20/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CST Sun Jan 20 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid-level trough entering the West Coast will continue to
   progress eastward into portions of the Desert Southwest throughout
   the forecast period while undergoing amplification. Winds along the
   base of the trough will remain quite strong (90+ kt) with 50+ kt
   flow overspreading portions of the Southern Plains. At the surface,
   lee cyclogenesis will continue to occur along the Southern High
   Plains, with a surface low developing in the Southeast Colorado and
   Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles vicinity as strong southwesterly/southerly
   return flow develops across much of the Southern High Plains.

   ...Portions of Eastern NM/West TX...
   Diurnal heating/vertical mixing of enhanced mid-level flow combined
   with lee cyclogenesis will result in strong southwesterly surface
   winds of 20-30 mph developing across the region, with gusts of 40+
   mph. Meanwhile RH values will fall into the teens. Fuels across the
   region remain marginally conducive to large-fire spread. However,
   fine fuels have been/will continue to dry out, particularly near the
   New Mexico/Texas border. Accordingly, a critical area has been
   introduced where the most probable overlap of wind/RH/fuels exists,
   and an elevated area in peripheral areas where RH/fuels are the
   primary limiting factors.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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