NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 21 19:13:02 UTC 2019
Mar 21, 2019 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 211911

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


   The latest ensemble/deterministic guidance continues to support the
   potential of locally Elevated fire weather conditions tomorrow
   afternoon across portions of SC/GA into northern FL, as sustained
   wind speeds of 10-15 mph overlap a dry air mass (RH values of
   25-35%). While the surface pressure gradient is forecast to weaken
   over the Southeast through the day -- as surface cyclone moves
   offshore across the Northeast -- mid-level flow should remain
   enhanced over portions of far eastern GA into central/eastern SC,
   where high resolution guidance places the greatest potential of
   surface wind speeds at or above 15 mph for at least three hours. 
   While Elevated meteorological conditions are most possible across
   this area, fuel receptiveness is a bit more uncertain, especially
   considering the potential of at least some wetting rainfall later
   this evening/tonight. While an Elevated fire weather area was not
   introduced with this update, one may be needed for portions of this
   area in a future outlook if trends in guidance suggest stronger wind
   speeds and/or if wetting rainfall does not occur.

   See previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Elliott.. 03/21/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019/

   An upper trough/low over the Great Basin and Rockies will advance
   eastward across the High Plains on Day 2/Friday. A large-scale upper
   trough over the eastern CONUS should consolidate into a closed low
   over New England by Friday evening. At the surface, a low should
   deepen over eastern CO through the period, while a separate low
   develops northeastward along the New England Coast.

   ...Portions of SC/GA and northern FL...
   Although the surface pressure gradient should remain relatively weak
   across much of SC/GA and northern FL on Day 2/Friday, seasonably
   strong low/mid-level northwesterly winds should remain over this
   region. At least some increase in west-northwesterly surface winds
   appears probable Friday afternoon, although short-term guidance
   remains unclear how strong the winds will become. As temperatures
   generally warm into the 70s, RH values should become diurnally
   mixed/lowered into the 25-35% range for a couple hours. Fuels across
   this region appear marginally receptive to large fire starts, but
   fine fuels will probably be dry enough. For now, there appears to be
   a little too much uncertainty in the placement and strength of the
   surface winds to introduce an elevated delineation, but one may
   eventually be needed for some portion of SC/GA and/or northern FL.

   ...Portions of Southern NM...
   A 40-50 kt mid-level west-southwesterly jet will likely move over
   southern/eastern NM through the day. Surface lee troughing should
   also develop across the southern High Plains. Both of these features
   are expected to contribute to 20-25 mph west-southwesterly surface
   winds Friday afternoon across parts of southern NM and far west TX
   along/behind a dryline/cold front. RH values are forecast to become
   lowered through diurnal mixing into the 15-25% range for at least a
   few hours. Elevated meteorological conditions appear likely across
   this region, but fuels are not currently expected to be overly
   receptive to large fire starts. Accordingly, have not included an
   elevated area at this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...


   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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