NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 18:20:03 UTC 2024
Mar 18, 2024 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
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Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 181818

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

   No forecast changes are needed. Elevated fire weather conditions may
   emerge through much of the OH River Valley region tomorrow afternoon
   as a surface trough/weak cold front push through the region. Strong
   mid-level flow and modestly deep boundary-layer mixing should
   support 15-25 mph winds with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph. Despite the
   strong winds, RH values are expected to be relatively mild with
   ensemble mean values near 30%; however, solutions that typically
   exhibit deeper mixing suggest RH values may fall as low as 20-25%
   through parts of the OH Valley (most likely along and south of the
   OH river to the western slopes of the southern Appalachians). In
   addition to the uncertainty in the RH forecast, fuel status is mixed
   across the region with areas that are primarily characterized by
   finer fuels (grasses and leaves) reporting sufficiently dry fuels to
   support a fire concern. Dry conditions are expected to persist
   across NC and VA, but weaker winds should limit overall concerns. No
   highlights are introduced at this time, but relative humidity and
   fuel trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Moore.. 03/18/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024/

   ...Synopsis...
   The mid-level pattern through the day on Tuesday is expected to be
   characterized a large trough across the central and eastern US with
   a decaying cutoff low across the southwestern US. At the surface,
   this would result in a ridge near the Gulf Coast. Although winds
   across the northern and central Florida peninsula are currently
   forecast to be light, relative humidity may be in the 30-40% range.
   This may result in pockets of elevated fire conditions across this
   region. However, given the moist fuels and the uncertainty on wind
   speeds, will not introduce Elevated highlights for now. Elsewhere
   across the continental US, higher relative humidity is expected to
   generally keep fire concerns minimal.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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