NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 20 06:59:03 UTC 2019
Jun 20, 2019 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 33,349 1,118,755 Albuquerque, NM...Rio Rancho, NM...South Valley, NM...Gallup, NM...Red Bluff, CA...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 200658

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0158 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
   WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level shortwave trough will continue to deepen across the
   western CONUS while very slowly advancing eastward. At the surface,
   high pressure will dominate much of the Great Basin and Four Corners
   regions. Meanwhile, surface low pressures will develop to the
   south/east of the aforementioned high pressure, across portions of
   the southern High Plains and southern Great Basin, promoting dry and
   strong westerly surface flow across the southwest CONUS, along with
   wildfire spread potential. In addition, mid-level winds associated
   with the backside of the shortwave trough will better coincide the
   axis of the Sacramento Valley, promoting more efficient downward
   transport of higher momentum air aloft via a well-mixed boundary
   layer. As such, wildfire spread potential will become a concern for
   portions of northern California.

   ...Northern California...
   A critical delineation was maintained for portions of the northern
   Sacramento Valley. While the magnitude of the flow aloft will be
   weaker compared to the previous day, the better alignment of the
   mid-level flow to the axis of the Sacramento Valley suggests a
   greater chance for sustained northerly surface winds to exceed 20
   mph amidst 15-20% RH by mid-late afternoon. After sunset, a cooling
   boundary layer will gradually diminish the wildfire spread threat
   with time.

   ...Portions of the southern Great Basin/Four Corners regions...
   By peak heating of the afternoon, boundary layer mixing will result
   in widespread west-southwesterly surface winds of 25+ mph amidst
   10-20% RH across much of central/eastern Arizona and nearly all of
   New Mexico. Though fuels overall are slightly below critical
   thresholds, a few areas of finer fuels should at least be modestly
   supportive of wildfire spread. A critical delineation was added
   where fuels will most likely be receptive to fire spread, and where
   sustained wind speeds will most likely exceed 25 mph for the longest
   period of time. Widespread critical wind/RH conditions will also be
   likely east/north of the current critical delineation, but the
   marginal receptiveness of fuels warrants an elevated at this time.
   West of the current critical delineation, fuels are modestly
   receptive to fire spread, though confidence is slightly lower in
   widespread critical wind/RH conditions becoming sustained across
   central Arizona, with an elevated area being delineated. By evening,
   RH recovery and calming winds will result in the wildfire spread
   threat gradually subsiding with time.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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