NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
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May 20, 2018 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 32,856 221,962 Douglas, AZ...Payson, AZ...Winslow, AZ...Show Low, AZ...Safford, AZ...
Dry Tstm 7,159 41,844 Grants, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201845

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0145 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA AND
   FAR SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW
   MEXICO...

   Scattered dry thunderstorms are likely tomorrow across portions of
   northwest New Mexico, mainly along and just west of the Continental
   Divide. Model soundings in this region show steep mid-level lapse
   rates developing by mid-afternoon with inverted-V boundary layer
   profiles and PWATs ranging from 0.25-0.50 in. Storms are expected to
   develop in the high terrain with isolated coverage initially.
   Effective bulk shear of 20-25 kts should eventually help to organize
   the convection into scattered multi-cellular clusters. These storms
   will be able to access richer low-level moisture and higher PWATs as
   they propagate eastward, thus limiting the scattered dry
   thunderstorm potential farther east. However, concurrent isolated
   thunderstorm development is possible across much of region, thus
   posing an initial risk of dry-lightning fire starts.

   Otherwise, the ongoing critical area across portions of eastern
   Arizona has been expanded south to cover portions of southeast
   Arizona and far southwest New Mexico, accounting for the potential
   for winds to exceed critical thresholds, as depicted in latest
   high-resolution model guidance. No adjustments were made to the
   elevated area. See the previous discussion for more information.

   ..Karstens.. 05/20/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A similar regime for fire weather conditions will exist on D2/Mon as
   on the previous day (D1/Sun) as a mid-level trough gradually closes
   off over California and southwesterly mid-level flow persists across
   dry areas of the Southwest.  This mid-level flow will be slightly
   stronger during the D2/Mon afternoon however (40-50 kt) especially
   across Arizona.  With vertical mixing processes resulting in
   stronger surface flow across parts of this region, critical fire
   weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern Arizona,
   with elevated fire weather expected in surrounding areas.

   ...Parts of Arizona, far western New Mexico, and far southeastern
   Utah...
   Aforementioned vertical mixing processes, in conjunction with a weak
   surface pressure gradient persisting across the region, will result
   in areas of 15-25 mph across the region increasing to around 20-30
   mph across portions of eastern Arizona.  This flow will continue
   amidst a very dry low-level airmass, with 70s-80s F afternoon
   temperatures resulting in critically low RH values (3-15%). 
   Persistent drought, dry fuels, and the presence of ongoing fires all
   suggest elevated to critical fire weather conditions during the
   afternoon and early evening.  A critical delineation remains in
   place in areas that have the greatest chance of experiencing 20+ mph
   surface winds within the dry environment for several hours during
   the afternoon and evening.  A broader elevated area surrounds the
   critical, and although surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times
   across these areas, they are currently expected to occur on a
   brief-enough basis to preclude any categorical upgrade at this time.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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