NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 23 19:54:03 UTC 2019
Oct 23, 2019 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis 

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Extreme 1,998 2,776,315 Ontario, CA...Fontana, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Rancho Cucamonga, CA...Pomona, CA...
Critical 11,809 4,772,813 Santa Ana, CA...Anaheim, CA...Riverside, CA...San Bernardino, CA...Oxnard, CA...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 231952

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF
   VENTURA...LOS ANGELES...ORANGE...SAN BERNARDINO...RIVERSIDE COUNTIES
   IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WESTERN SLOPES OF NORTHERN COASTAL
   RANGES AND SIERRA NEVADA IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...

   ...Southern California...
   Modifications to the extremely critical and critical ares have been
   made on account of recent high-resolution deterministic/ensemble
   guidance. Areas of single digit RH are probable with 10-15% being
   more common. Extremely critical conditions are likely to abate by
   late in the day, though critical conditions will persist in many
   location through the end of the period. An extension of the elevated
   area was made into the southern Central Valley for southeasterly
   downslope winds of 15-20 mph. Locally critical conditions may occur
   here as well.

   ...Northern California...
   Two critical areas were added as downslope winds are likely to be
   ongoing at the beginning of the period and for several hours into
   the morning. Widespread critical is not expected to do lack of
   upper-level support. The most widespread critical conditions will
   occur along the western slopes of the northern Coastal Ranges with
   20-25 mph winds and 10-15% RH. By afternoon, critical conditions
   will likely cease. A critical area for portions of the western
   Sierra slopes was also added for similar conditions. Consensus among
   guidance is that critical fire weather may last into the early to
   mid-evening.

   ...Colorado River Valley...
   With strong surface high pressure to the north, northerly winds of
   15-25 mph are possible. RH will generally fall to 10-20%. Overall
   lack of fuels will mitigate greater risk for fire spread.

   ..Wendt.. 10/23/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0226 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   A positively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the Plains
   states on Day 2/Thursday, with surface high pressure continuing to
   intensify across the Great Basin and the Inter-mountain West. A
   strong pressure gradient will remain in place across the state of
   California, where strong offshore flow will promote windy/dry
   conditions. As such, a potentially volatile environment for
   wildfire-spread may take shape across the southern Transverse Ranges
   (especially early Day 2/Thursday). Similarly, early parts of Day 2
   will also be when the most windy/dry conditions are expected to
   occur across portions of northern California, prolonging some
   wildfire-spread potential from late Day 1/Wednesday into early Day
   2/Thursday.

   ...Southern California...
   The most volatile period for rapid wildfire growth/spread will be
   the first half of the period, where both coarser and finer
   resolution model guidance depict widespread critical conditions (20+
   mph sustained northeasterly winds and 10-20% RH) across all of the
   southern Transverse Ranges. Portions of eastern Ventura County
   (mainly parts of the Ventura Valley), to southern Riverside County
   (in proximity to the Santa Ana Mountains) have received an extremely
   critical delineation, as widespread winds over 30 mph (with locally
   higher gusts) and 10-20% RH are expected from early-mid morning to
   at least the early afternoon hours.

   ...Northern California...
   At least widespread elevated/locally critical conditions are
   expected to continue across much of the northern Sacramento Valley
   and immediate adjacent areas of the northern Sierra and northern
   Coast Ranges. 15-25 mph sustained north/easterly flow amidst 15-20%
   RH are depicted by much of the latest guidance through the morning
   hours. Some of the latest high-resolution guidance even suggests
   some short-term widespread critical conditions from Day 1/Wednesday
   will persist through at least mid-morning. Consistency in guidance
   will continue to be evaluated for the consideration of adding a
   critical to this region in future forecasts.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK TO GET DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)



   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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