NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 21 20:41:02 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 21, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Mar 23, 2019 - Sun, Mar 24, 2019 D6Tue, Mar 26, 2019 - Wed, Mar 27, 2019
D4Sun, Mar 24, 2019 - Mon, Mar 25, 2019 D7Wed, Mar 27, 2019 - Thu, Mar 28, 2019
D5Mon, Mar 25, 2019 - Tue, Mar 26, 2019 D8Thu, Mar 28, 2019 - Fri, Mar 29, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 212038

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   Mid/upper level flow is forecast to deamplify across much of the
   CONUS this weekend, with quasi-zonal flow developing over the
   southern half of the United States. The latest guidance continues to
   suggest a corridor of enhanced mid-level flow -- associated with a
   compact mid-level impulse -- will become dislodged from an Eastern
   Pacific trough and overspread portions of the Southern High Plains
   late Day 3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. Mid/upper-level ridging is
   then forecast to build across the West Day 5/Monday and remain
   through at least midweek when a large-scale mid-level trough moves

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday and Day 7/Wednesday - Day
   8/Thursday: Southern High Plains...

   While meteorological conditions may support some level of fire
   weather risk Day 3/Saturday and/or Day 4/Sunday as the
   aforementioned mid-level speed maxima overspreads the area,
   lingering uncertainties regarding fuel receptiveness following
   several recent rounds of precipitation coupled with a general
   weakening trend in model wind speeds and sub-optimal model
   consistency preclude the introduction of Critical probabilities at
   this time.

   A more substantial fire weather risk may arise by Day 7/Wednesday
   and/or Day 8/Thursday, as enhanced mid-level flow associated with
   the aforementioned large-scale trough overlaps the area. By that
   time, fuels should also be more receptive to large fire starts, with
   several prior days of drying (forecast is dry beyond Day 2/Friday).
   While probabilities may be needed in future outlooks, timing
   uncertainties are currently too large for the introduction of
   Critical probabilities.

   ..Elliott.. 03/21/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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