NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 22 21:06:02 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 22, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 5,017 4,289,673 Riverside, CA...Ontario, CA...Santa Clarita, CA...Rancho Cucamonga, CA...Pomona, CA...
D3Thu, Oct 24, 2019 - Fri, Oct 25, 2019 D6Sun, Oct 27, 2019 - Mon, Oct 28, 2019
D4Fri, Oct 25, 2019 - Sat, Oct 26, 2019 D7Mon, Oct 28, 2019 - Tue, Oct 29, 2019
D5Sat, Oct 26, 2019 - Sun, Oct 27, 2019 D8Tue, Oct 29, 2019 - Wed, Oct 30, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222102

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0402 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   The extended period will begin with upper-level troughing in the
   West and an amplified trough east of the Divide. The upper-level
   pattern will begin to change by D4/Saturday as a trough moves into
   the Pacific Northwest. Differences between medium-range guidance
   continue today with regard to the evolution of this feature. The
   ECMWF continues to push this trough southward into northern
   California on D5/Sunday whereas the GFS has the trough more
   progressive shift southeastward. At the surface, high pressure will
   generally remain entrenched in the northern/central Rockies and
   adjacent Great Basin. The position/strength of these anticyclones
   will shift, however.

   ...Southern California...
   A moderate to strong Santa Ana event is expected on D3/Thursday with
   lingering potential for critical fire weather into D4/Friday. A
   strong offshore gradient combined with modest upper-level support
   will bring 20-25 mph winds across much of Transverse/Peninsular
   Ranges vicinity in southern California. Higher sustained winds can
   be expected within the higher terrain. RH will potentially reach
   into the single digits with 10-20% being more broadly common.
   Elevated to critical conditions may extend into Friday.

   ...Northern California...
   A 40% probability for critical fire weather has been added for
   D3/Thursday. Strong downslope winds may linger early in the period
   before the pressure gradient weakens later in the day. Upper-level
   support will be much weaker than on Wednesday which will also limit
   the threat for fire spread. A stronger wind/RH event is possible by
   D6/Sunday. As previously mentioned, differences in medium-range
   guidance lend uncertainty to how intense winds will be. However,
   despite differences in upper-level support, the surface pattern and
   at least minimally supportive winds aloft should foster some degree
   of fire weather concern. Model trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt.. 10/22/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      


To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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