NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 29 21:43:03 UTC 2022
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 29, 2022
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Dec 01, 2022 - Fri, Dec 02, 2022 D6Sun, Dec 04, 2022 - Mon, Dec 05, 2022
D4Fri, Dec 02, 2022 - Sat, Dec 03, 2022 D7Mon, Dec 05, 2022 - Tue, Dec 06, 2022
D5Sat, Dec 03, 2022 - Sun, Dec 04, 2022 D8Tue, Dec 06, 2022 - Wed, Dec 07, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 292139

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0339 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

   Valid 011200Z - 071200Z

   ...Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday...
   An upper trough will track eastward across the Intermountain West on
   Day 3/Thursday, while associated strong/deep west-southwesterly flow
   overspreads the western CONUS. As a result, surface lee troughing
   will deepen over the central/southern High Plains, favoring
   strengthening southerly surface winds across the region. While
   locally elevated conditions will be possible across northeast NM,
   southeast CO, and southwest KS, the strongest surface winds will be
   displaced eastward from the best RH reductions -- precluding
   Critical probabilities at this time. 

   By Day 4/Friday, the upper trough will deamplify as it continues
   eastward, while an accompanying strong midlevel jet streak
   overspreads the central Rockies and adjacent Plains. At the same
   time, an attendant surface cyclone will evolve eastward across the
   central Plains, with a rapidly tightening surface pressure gradient
   along its southern periphery. This will result in a corridor of
   20-25+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher
   gusts) across parts of the central and southern High Plains. These
   strong/gusty winds, coupled with downslope-related warming/drying
   (15-20 percent RH) will lead to an increase in fire-weather
   potential on Day 4/Friday afternoon. 40-percent Critical
   probabilities have been introduced for this area, and higher
   probabilities could eventually be needed depending on how fuels
   evolve over the next couple days.

   ..Weinman.. 11/29/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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