NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 19 22:02:03 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 19, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 1,394 83,763 Red Bluff, CA...
D3Fri, Jun 21, 2019 - Sat, Jun 22, 2019 D6Mon, Jun 24, 2019 - Tue, Jun 25, 2019
D4Sat, Jun 22, 2019 - Sun, Jun 23, 2019 D7Tue, Jun 25, 2019 - Wed, Jun 26, 2019
D5Sun, Jun 23, 2019 - Mon, Jun 24, 2019 D8Wed, Jun 26, 2019 - Thu, Jun 27, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 192200

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0500 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   A large-scale trough in the Pacific Northwest will dig southward
   into the Four Corners Region by the end of the week. As this trough
   moves through the central Plains into the Upper Midwest, another
   trough will set up off the Pacific Northwest coast by late next
   week. A longwave ridge will begin to build/amplify across the
   central CONUS in the wake of the initial trough as well. Low
   pressure in the southern Great Basin and lee troughing in the
   southern Plains will accompany the initial trough. A surface low
   pressure system will develop in the northern Great Basin into the
   Columbia Basin towards the end of the period.

   ...D3/Friday and D4/Saturday...Sacramento Valley...
   A favorable pattern for critical fire weather will be present across
   northern California Friday and Saturday as the upper-level trough
   digs southward. Parts of the Sacramento Valley will experience
   elevated to critical fire weather as dry downslope flow off the
   higher terrain occurs during the afternoon. The greatest threat for
   critical fire weather conditions will occur on Friday as an
   along-valley oriented mid-level jet will be favorably timed with
   peak afternoon heating. A 70% probability has been introduced where
   terrain enhancement will likely increase winds above critical
   thresholds. On Saturday, mid-level winds will still be favorably
   aligned but will be on the decrease throughout the day. Confidence
   in critical fire weather will only be 40%.

   ...D3/Friday and D4/Saturday...Southwest...
   As the trough digs into the Four Corners, a deeply-mixed boundary
   layer will efficiently transport momentum to the surface. With
   recent rainfall north of the Mogollon Rim and northern New Mexico,
   some question remains as to the northern edge of the fire weather
   risk. Areas have been adjusted to align with the latest SWCC
   guidance on the most favorable fuels. Furthermore, a fair amount of
   lightning has occurred in the previously mentioned areas in the last
   72 hours. The expected dry and windy conditions may lead to a few
   holdover fires on the edge of where the most precipitation has
   fallen. 40% probabilities will be maintained for both Friday and

   ...D6/Monday...Northwest Nevada...
   Fuels continue to be marginally receptive for this time of year
   across much of the Great Basin. Northwest Nevada does have
   increasing ERCs as well as cured fine fuels according to latest GBCC
   guidance. There is some uncertainty with how dry fuels will be by
   Monday, but given the strong downslope flow expected with the
   mid-level jet overspreading the area, a conditional threat will
   exist. 40% probability has been added for this threat.

   ..Wendt.. 06/19/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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