NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon May 16 22:02:03 UTC 2022
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 16, 2022
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 149,090 2,924,007 Albuquerque, NM...Colorado Springs, CO...Henderson, NV...Pueblo, CO...Santa Fe, NM...
D5 21,190 183,995 Gallup, NM...Show Low, AZ...Grants, NM...
D3Wed, May 18, 2022 - Thu, May 19, 2022 D6Sat, May 21, 2022 - Sun, May 22, 2022
D4Thu, May 19, 2022 - Fri, May 20, 2022 D7Sun, May 22, 2022 - Mon, May 23, 2022
D5Fri, May 20, 2022 - Sat, May 21, 2022 D8Mon, May 23, 2022 - Tue, May 24, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0458 PM CDT Mon May 16 2022

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   Fire-weather concerns will generally be focused over the Southwest
   into the southern/central High Plains during the extended forecast
   period. Currently, confidence in the development of Critical
   conditions is highest on Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday over these areas. 

   ...Day 3/Wednesday...
   A southern-stream midlevel trough and modest midlevel westerly flow
   will overspread the Southwest and southern High Plains, where
   widespread 10-15 percent RH will develop by the afternoon. While
   elevated to locally critical conditions will be possible over the
   region, the lack of a tighter surface pressure gradient limits
   confidence in the development of critical conditions. 40 percent
   probabilities have been maintained where the best overlap of
   dry/breezy conditions are expected over southern NM into the TX
   Trans-Pecos region. Elevated conditions will also be possible over
   parts of northwest TX behind an eastward-advancing dryline, though
   confidence in critical conditions is too low to introduce
   probabilities. Over parts of the Northeast, a dry/breezy
   post-frontal airmass could favor elevated conditions during the
   afternoon, however, critical conditions are not expected at this
   time and recent rainfall casts uncertainty on the overall
   fire-weather threat.

   ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday...
   A large-scale trough and strong westerly midlevel flow will move
   east-southeastward across the western CONUS, while a lee surface low
   deepens over the central High Plains on Day 4/Thursday. As the
   strong/deep westerly flow overspreads a very warm/dry antecedent
   airmass across the Southwest into the southern/central High Plains,
   an expansive area of critical conditions should develop. 70 percent
   Critical probabilities are in place where 20-30 mph sustained
   westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) will coincide with 5-15
   percent minimum RH atop critically dry fuels.

   On Day 5/Friday, the large-scale trough will advance eastward across
   the central CONUS, while strong midlevel flow persists over the
   Southwest into the southern/central High Plains. At the same time,
   the aforementioned lee surface low and attendant cold front will
   move southward across the southern High Plains. West of the surface
   low and ahead of the cold front, diurnal heating amid the
   deep/strong westerly flow will support 10-15 percent minimum RH and
   20-30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across parts of eastern
   AZ into western NM. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been
   added for these areas, and additional expansions may eventually be
   needed.  

   ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday...
   Very warm/dry conditions will persist across the Southwest, though
   large spreads amongst the global model guidance casts uncertainty on
   where breezy surface winds will overlap the dry boundary-layer
   conditions. With that said, generally westerly midlevel flow should
   favor lee troughing and breezy conditions over the southern/central
   High Plains, though current indications are that the drier
   conditions will be displaced to the west.

   ..Weinman.. 05/16/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      


To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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