NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Feb 24 21:55:03 UTC 2018
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 24, 2018
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 52,503 524,711 Amarillo, TX...Clovis, NM...Liberal, KS...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...
D4 31,236 163,752 Clovis, NM...Hereford, TX...Portales, NM...Tucumcari, NM...
D5 28,539 707,477 Lubbock, TX...Odessa, TX...Hobbs, NM...Plainview, TX...West Odessa, TX...
D3Mon, Feb 26, 2018 - Tue, Feb 27, 2018 D6Thu, Mar 01, 2018 - Fri, Mar 02, 2018
D4Tue, Feb 27, 2018 - Wed, Feb 28, 2018 D7Fri, Mar 02, 2018 - Sat, Mar 03, 2018
D5Wed, Feb 28, 2018 - Thu, Mar 01, 2018 D8Sat, Mar 03, 2018 - Sun, Mar 04, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 242153

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 041200Z

   A mean trough will persist across portions of the West throughout
   the forecast period, and will be reinforced by occasional shortwaves
   migrating through the region.  Farther east, mid/upper ridging will
   eventually be replaced by a trough centered over the mid-Atlantic
   late in the period, with a shortwave ridge persisting across the
   Plains.

   At the surface, fire weather conditions will be enhanced by lee
   troughing/cyclogenesis from eastern Colorado southward to the Big
   Bend area of Texas through D5/Wed.  Beyond that point, a deepening
   low will migrate eastward, leaving behind ridging and a temporary
   lull in fire weather through D7/Fri.  Late in the period, models
   hint at a return in fire weather potential to the High Plains,
   although pinpointing specific locations of this potential is
   difficult at this time frame.

   ...Southern and Central High Plains - D3/Mon through D6/Thu...
   ...D3/Mon through D6/Thu - Southern and Central High Plains...
   Dry, breezy to windy conditions will develop each day behind a
   surface trough across western Oklahoma and the western third of
   Texas, with a surface low persisting over eastern Colorado and
   vicinity.  Areas of critical and near-critical RH will also persist,
   along with areas of dry fuels.  Broad 40% areas remain in place for
   this outlook throughout the period to highlight areas that contain
   potential for at least elevated to locally critical fire weather
   conditions during this period.  70% areas also remain in place where
   wind/RH criteria are expected to be met, fuels remain the driest,
   and ongoing drought is expected to persist - primarily in eastern NM
   and the Texas Panhandle/South Plains on D3/Mon and D4/Tue and
   extending into southeastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas on
   D3/Mon.

   A 70%/critical area was introduced on D5/Wed for much of the same
   area (eastern New Mexico and western Texas) although it extends
   farther south into portions of west Texas (and the Transpecos). 
   Fuels have not been receptive to fire spread on a widespread basis
   recently, although substantial drying should take place over the
   next few days given the overall synoptic pattern.  This should
   result in an increased overall fire weather threat given very strong
   surface winds expected (exceeding 30-35 mph at times) and
   near-critical RH values.

   ..Cook.. 02/24/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      


To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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