NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun May 20 20:40:03 UTC 2018
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 20, 2018
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, May 22, 2018 - Wed, May 23, 2018 D6Fri, May 25, 2018 - Sat, May 26, 2018
D4Wed, May 23, 2018 - Thu, May 24, 2018 D7Sat, May 26, 2018 - Sun, May 27, 2018
D5Thu, May 24, 2018 - Fri, May 25, 2018 D8Sun, May 27, 2018 - Mon, May 28, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 202038

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   A closed upper-level low located over southern California and lower
   Nevada will quickly weaken on Day 3/Tuesday, transitioning to an
   open/weak trough by Day 4/Wednesday while lifting northeast toward
   the northern Rockies. Some enhancement to the mid-level flow will
   accompany this feature along its southern periphery as it undergoes
   the aforementioned evolution. Generally weak upper-level flow looks
   to settle in for the remainder of the forecast period, with perhaps
   some signal of a trough entering the West Coast toward the end of
   the period.

   ...Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday: Portions of the Southwest...
   Warm and dry conditions will prevail across eastern Arizona and
   western New Mexico for most of the forecast period, but the best
   chance for seeing breezy conditions, and thus elevated fire
   concerns, is on Day 3/Tuesday and Day 4/Wednesday. Mid-level
   southwesterly winds of 30-35 kt will accompany the western closed
   low/trough, and with diurnal heating these winds should mix toward
   the surface. Thus, the 40%/marginal probabilities have been
   maintained across the region, with a slight westward expansion made
   on Day 4/Wednesday. In addition, there is some potential for locally
   critical conditions to develop on Day 3/Tuesday across east-central
   Arizona and west-central New Mexico, along with potential for
   isolated dry thunderstorms across central New Mexico. There is too
   much uncertainty the placement and evolution of these risks to
   warrant any highlights at the current time.

   Thereafter, the lack of appreciable mid-level flow should temper
   fire-weather concerns despite hot/dry conditions remaining in place
   across portions of the Southwest.

   ..Karstens.. 05/20/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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