NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 10 22:13:02 UTC 2020
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 10, 2020
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D4 31,902 258,464 St. George, UT...Cedar City, UT...Washington, UT...Hurricane, UT...
D3Sun, Jul 12, 2020 - Mon, Jul 13, 2020 D6Wed, Jul 15, 2020 - Thu, Jul 16, 2020
D4Mon, Jul 13, 2020 - Tue, Jul 14, 2020 D7Thu, Jul 16, 2020 - Fri, Jul 17, 2020
D5Tue, Jul 14, 2020 - Wed, Jul 15, 2020 D8Fri, Jul 17, 2020 - Sat, Jul 18, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 102209

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   A broad trough across the Pacific Northwest will begin the process
   of breaking down the upper-level ridge across the western and
   central U.S. Broad cyclonic flow aloft will progress to the east
   through the period, though there will be tendency for strongest
   winds to shift toward the Canadian border. At the surface, a Pacific
   front will move through the Northwest and slow/stall across the
   Great Basin. In the lee of the Rockies, some degree of surface
   troughing is expected across the southern Plains for early/mid-week
   along with a stalled boundary near the Red River.

   ...Great Basin...
   The mid-level jet will sag southward into the northern Great Basin
   on D3/Sunday with a lee trough developing in the northern/central
   High Plains. Potentially critical fire weather is possible along the
   lee of the Sierra in northwestern Nevada, the Snake River Valley,
   and portions of southern Wyoming. As the upper-level trough sags
   further south and the Pacific front moves into the central Basin,
   the potential for critical fire weather will increase on D4/Monday.
   Strong flow will mix to the surface along with further enhancement
   near the front. The highest potential is expected in southern and
   eastern Utah just ahead of the boundary. Southern Wyoming was
   considered for increased probabilities, but the strongest winds may
   reside over sparse fuels and the eastern extent of the threat is in
   question with varying position of the surface trough. For
   D5/Tuesday, the boundary will remain across the central Basin, but
   mid-level flow will weaken. While critical fire weather is still
   possible over similar areas as Monday, the threat should be less.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Rising temperatures and continued lack of precipitation is expected
   to cure fine fuels across portions of the South Plains, Hill
   Country, and Rolling Plains of Texas. While stronger mid-level winds
   will generally remain to the north, guidance is in reasonable
   agreement that lee troughing will enhance surface winds starting
   Monday. There is possibility that winds may reach near critical
   thresholds both Monday and Tuesday. RH recovery is not expected to
   be rapid and some elevated fire weather risk may exist into the
   early evening hours.

   ...Dry Thunderstorms...
   Weak mid-level height falls are expected across parts of the Great
   Basin on D3/Sunday. With mid-level moisture continuing to move
   north, some possibility exists for dry thunderstorms to occur along
   the Mogollon Rim and the higher terrain of southern/central Utah. It
   is still unclear if activity will be more than a storm or two so no
   probabilities will be introduced. However, the risk of lightning
   ignitions even with a few strikes remains high given very dry fuels.

   ..Wendt.. 07/10/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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