NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 20 21:50:02 UTC 2019
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 20, 2019
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Jan 22, 2019 - Wed, Jan 23, 2019 D6Fri, Jan 25, 2019 - Sat, Jan 26, 2019
D4Wed, Jan 23, 2019 - Thu, Jan 24, 2019 D7Sat, Jan 26, 2019 - Sun, Jan 27, 2019
D5Thu, Jan 24, 2019 - Fri, Jan 25, 2019 D8Sun, Jan 27, 2019 - Mon, Jan 28, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 202148

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CST Sun Jan 20 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   As another cold front pushes towards the Gulf of Mexico on
   D3/Tuesday, dry and windy conditions may develop across portions of
   the Big Bend region of Texas. Surface winds may reach above critical
   thresholds in some locations, but recent precipitation and
   uncertainty regarding duration of stronger surface flow preclude
   increasing probabilities beyond 40%.

   Through much of the remainder of the extended period, a longwave
   trough will be present across the central/eastern CONUS with a
   longwave ridge centered over the West Coast. Cold airmasses from
   Canada will impact areas east of the Continental Divide on
   D4/Wednesday into D6/Friday. Behind a cold front in South Florida,
   dry and breezy conditions will be possible on D6/Friday; however, as
   has been the case with other recent frontal passages, rainfall along
   the front will complicate whether fuels will be critically dry. In
   southern California, modest offshore flow is possible from mid- to
   late week. Fuel states continue to look highly unreceptive, however.

   Towards the end of the period, long range guidance suggests that the
   southern High Plains may see potentially critical fire weather
   conditions as the area is impacted by surface cyclones and
   associated frontal systems. However, confidence is quite low as to
   where/when this will occur given the wide variance in
   timing/magnitude of shortwave troughs embedded in the eastern
   longwave trough between the GFS and ECMWF.

   ..Wendt.. 01/20/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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