NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 28 21:56:03 UTC 2020
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 28, 2020
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Sep 30, 2020 - Thu, Oct 01, 2020 D6Sat, Oct 03, 2020 - Sun, Oct 04, 2020
D4Thu, Oct 01, 2020 - Fri, Oct 02, 2020 D7Sun, Oct 04, 2020 - Mon, Oct 05, 2020
D5Fri, Oct 02, 2020 - Sat, Oct 03, 2020 D8Mon, Oct 05, 2020 - Tue, Oct 06, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 282152

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0452 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 061200Z

   High pressure over the West Coast will bring well above average
   temperatures and dryness to much of the West through the next
   several days. To the east, several fast moving cold fronts will
   bring dry and windy conditions to the Plains. As a result, periods
   of locally active fire weather are expected through the extended
   forecast period.

   ...West Coast...
   With the strong ridge of high pressure expected to remain in place
   through the weekend, very warm and very dry conditions are expected
   across much of California and into southern Oregon. The very warm
   surface temperatures, (near or exceeding 100F) will support the
   development of a surface pressure trough and locally enhanced winds
   through the afternoon. While broader synoptic support for strong
   winds is limited, periodic offshore and terrain enhanced flows will
   likely exist. Model soundings show very deep mixing from hot and
   unstable conditions, which will allow for low humidity of 5-15% to
   develop during peak heating. Additionally, poor recoveries overnight
   suggest locally elevated and critical fire weather conditions are
   likely. This is especially true across central and southern
   California where the lingering offshore pressure gradient will
   support occasionally gusty winds through Day6/Saturday.

   Partial ridge breakdown later this weekend and early next week may
   also support elevated fire weather potential across the West. A
   shortwave trough moving through the Pacific Northwest may overlap
   stronger winds with the persistent warm and dry airmass on the edge
   of the ridge. However, forecast uncertainty remains high given the
   low predictability of the scenario.

   ...North/Central Plains...
   With the ridge in place across the West Coast, little change in the
   pattern is expected across much of the central US through
   Day8/Monday. A dry and breezy airmass is forecast to persist over
   much of the area as several frontal intrusions bring cooler air in
   from the north. Despite the cool down, dry post frontal airmasses
   are expected to develop periodically from Montana to Kansas. Gusty
   northwest flow aloft, and sufficient vertical mixing for momentum
   transfer should support gusty winds of 15-25 mph along and behind
   the passing cold fronts. As such, periodic elevated fire weather
   conditions appear likely through the extended period.

   ..Lyons.. 09/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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