NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 22 21:42:03 UTC 2017
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 22, 2017
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Fri, Nov 24, 2017 - Sat, Nov 25, 2017 D6Mon, Nov 27, 2017 - Tue, Nov 28, 2017
D4Sat, Nov 25, 2017 - Sun, Nov 26, 2017 D7Tue, Nov 28, 2017 - Wed, Nov 29, 2017
D5Sun, Nov 26, 2017 - Mon, Nov 27, 2017 D8Wed, Nov 29, 2017 - Thu, Nov 30, 2017
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 222140

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

   Mid-level ridging over the southwestern United States will become
   suppressed farther southward into northern Mexico Day 4/Friday, as a
   shortwave trough shifts eastward over the northern Plains, upper
   Midwest, and upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front is
   forecast to shift southward across the Northern/Central Plains and
   become quasi-stationary over portions of the Southern Plains.
   Re-amplification of the West Coast ridge is then expected Day
   4/Saturday into Day 5/Sunday, as a large-scale mid/upper-level
   trough over the eastern Pacific gradually approaches the coast.
   Long-range guidance is in good agreement regarding the evolution of
   the trough, shifting it (and an associated cold front) across the
   western United States early next week. An expansive area of surface
   high pressure is then forecast to settle into the Great Basin in the
   wake of the front on Day 7/Tuesday.

   ...Day 3/Friday: Portions of eastern New Mexico, the southern Texas
   Panhandle, and far southwest Oklahoma...
   Breezy pre-frontal westerly/southwesterly low-level flow is expected
   by afternoon, as the nose of the stronger mid-level flow (associated
   with aforementioned shortwave trough) impinges on the area.
   Meanwhile, downslope compressional warming of a dry low-level air
   mass will allow afternoon minimum RH values to approach critical
   values. The ongoing 40% area was maintained with some expansion
   eastward into southwest Oklahoma. While it currently appears the
   greatest likelihood for Critical fire weather conditions is across
   eastern New Mexico, uncertainty regarding the degree of the
   low-level drying/warming precludes higher probabilities at this
   time.

   ...Day 6-7/Monday-Tuesday: Portions of northeastern New Mexico,
   southeastern Colorado, and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle...
   Breezy pre-frontal westerly/southwesterly winds are forecast to
   strengthen Day 6/Monday, as lee troughing over the Rockies becomes
   established and stronger mid-level flow near the base of the
   aforementioned trough approaches the area. Meanwhile, downslope
   warming of a dry low-level air mass will allow RH values to approach
   critical values. While there is still some uncertainty regarding the
   areal extent of the threat, enough confidence exists to introduce
   40% probabilities for Day 6/Monday across portions of the area. The
   fire weather threat could extend into Day 7/Tuesday, however,
   uncertainty regarding the evolution of the cold front and its
   associated impact on wind/RH is too large to introduce Critical
   probabilities at this time.  

   ...Day 6-8/Monday-Wednesday: Portions of southern California...
   A strong Santa Ana wind event is possible beginning late Day
   6/Monday and perhaps lasting into Day 8/Wednesday, as offshore flow
   develops/strengthens with the aforementioned surface high building
   over the Great Basin. Furthermore, positioning of the
   mid/upper-level trough nearby will increase upper-level support,
   thereby enhancing the low-level flow. While near-critical conditions
   may arise beginning late Day 6/Monday, timing uncertainties
   currently precludes introduction of probabilities for that period.
   The best overlap of favorable fire weather ingredients (i.e., strong
   winds and reduced RH values) is currently expected on Day 7/Tuesday.
   Confidence is now great enough to introduce 40% Critical
   probabilities for Day 7/Tuesday. If guidance continues to suggest a
   strong Santa Ana event, then Critical fire weather probabilities
   would need to be increased in future updates. While fire weather
   conditions may linger into Day 8/Wednesday, uncertainty regarding
   wind/RH profiles is too large to introduce probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Elliott.. 11/22/2017

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      


To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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