NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 18 20:44:02 UTC 2024
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 18, 2024
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal


Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Mar 20, 2024 - Thu, Mar 21, 2024 D6Sat, Mar 23, 2024 - Sun, Mar 24, 2024
D4Thu, Mar 21, 2024 - Fri, Mar 22, 2024 D7Sun, Mar 24, 2024 - Mon, Mar 25, 2024
D5Fri, Mar 22, 2024 - Sat, Mar 23, 2024 D8Mon, Mar 25, 2024 - Tue, Mar 26, 2024
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 182040

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   Fire weather concerns are possible during the middle of the current
   work week as well as over the weekend, though confidence in this
   potential is currently too limited to introduce risk probabilities. 

   ...D3/Wednesday - Mid-Atlantic...
   The upper shortwave trough currently over southern Canada is
   forecast to propagate to the southeast over the next 48-72 hours,
   reaching the Atlantic coast by late afternoon D3/Wednesday. This
   will establish a westerly offshore flow regime from the
   central/southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic region. With
   little precipitation anticipated with this system, the combination
   of breezy downslope winds with an influx of dry air may support
   regional fire weather concerns. Elevated fire weather conditions are
   probable, and localized critical conditions are possible in the lee
   of the higher terrain. However, confidence in regional details
   remains too limited to introduce highlights. 

   ...D3/Wednesday and D7/Sunday - Southern High Plains...
   The meandering upper low currently over the Southwest is forecast to
   migrate into the southern Plains on D3/Wednesday. As this occurs,
   weak cyclogenesis over the Plains should induce downslope westerly
   flow off the southern Rockies into parts of eastern NM and southwest
   TX. This may allow for areas of elevated to critical fire weather
   conditions, though weak mid-level winds associated with the
   low-amplitude wave should limit the potential for substantial,
   widespread fire concerns. 

   Long-range guidance continues to show an upper pattern regime change
   by the upcoming weekend. Shortwave troughing should become
   established over the western CONUS by Saturday with some
   deterministic solutions showing the progression of the upper wave
   into the Four Corners region by Sunday. This synoptic regime will
   favor the development of a strong lee cyclone over the central High
   Plains with an accompanying swath of dry/windy conditions across
   eastern NM and southwest/west TX behind a sharpening dryline. This
   is a typical fire weather regime for this region, and critical fire
   weather conditions are likely if this pattern is realized. However,
   long-range ensemble analyses show that the timing/progression of the
   upper wave in deterministic solutions may be too fast compared to
   most ensemble clusters. Probabilities are withheld for this forecast
   due to the inherent uncertainty at this time range, but if
   ensemble/deterministic solutions come into better agreement
   regarding the timing of the upper wave, risk probabilities will be
   introduced.

   ..Moore.. 03/18/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      


To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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