NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 20 21:53:02 UTC 2020
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 20, 2020
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Feb 22, 2020 - Sun, Feb 23, 2020 D6Tue, Feb 25, 2020 - Wed, Feb 26, 2020
D4Sun, Feb 23, 2020 - Mon, Feb 24, 2020 D7Wed, Feb 26, 2020 - Thu, Feb 27, 2020
D5Mon, Feb 24, 2020 - Tue, Feb 25, 2020 D8Thu, Feb 27, 2020 - Fri, Feb 28, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 202149

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   A potent shortwave trough will move from southern California,
   through the Southwest, and into the southern Plains on D3/Saturday
   and D4/Sunday. Cyclogenesis within southeastern Colorado to northern
   Texas Panhandle vicinity will enhance westerly downslope winds
   across portions of the Southern Plains. An initial cold front will
   move through the region and into the western Gulf by D5/Monday. A
   secondary trough will dig southward through the central/southern
   Plains by D6/Tuesday. This will induce another cyclone to form in
   the Texas Panhandle, with another push of cold air into the central
   and southern CONUS on D7/Wednesday and D8/Thursday. High pressure
   will settle into the Great Basin/central Rockies by the end of the

   ...Southern High Plains...
   Strong westerly surface flow (15-25 mph) is likely across much of
   Texas Panhandle into the Permian Basin in association with the
   approaching mid-level jet and deepening surface cyclone on Sunday.
   RH during the afternoon is expected to fall to 15-20%. The advancing
   cold front will be delimit the northern extent of the fire weather
   threat in the Texas Panhandle. Farther south in the South
   Plains/Trans-Pecos, favorable wind/RH overlap is probable, but
   recent precipitation will most likely keep fine fuels too moist. A
   40% area has been added where model consensus shows dry and breezy
   conditions coincident with where the driest fine fuels should exist.

   Some continued fire weather concerns are possible on Monday and
   Tuesday with the secondary cyclone and post-frontal winds,
   respectively. However, guidance differs on timing and magnitude of
   the cyclogenesis as well as the spatial extent of winds being rather
   limited. Tuesday, though breezy, will likely remain too cool behind
   the front as well as some guidance bringing precipitation with the
   front. No highlights will be introduced for these days due to those
   mitigating factors.

   ..Wendt.. 02/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...



To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
   Source:  NWS Fire Weather Outlook
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