SPC AC 101731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
   KANSAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail are possible on
   Saturday from southeast Kansas and a portion of Oklahoma into the
   lower Mississippi Valley. A few strong storms are also possible
   during the afternoon from the coastal Mid-Atlantic into New England
   with isolated damaging wind the main threat.

   ...Southeast Kansas and eastern Oklahoma through the lower
   Mississippi Valley region...

   An MCS, possibly posing an ongoing threat for damaging wind, will
   likely be in progress from southeast KS into southwest MO by 12Z
   Saturday. This activity will reside along the eastern fringe of the
   elevated mixed layer. Downstream heating of the boundary layer will
   occur across the lower MS Valley and some potential will exist for
   this activity to continue southeast along instability gradient. The
   CAMS differ considerably with the HRRR being the most aggressive
   solution indicating a robust MCS will continue into the lower MS
   Valley into the afternoon. It is also possible initial activity may
   weaken, but other storms may redevelop farther southeast across AR
   and west TN in association with the progressive MCV and accompanying
   outflow boundary. Given the inherent uncertainty with these type of
   NW flow/MCS setups, have opted to expand SLGT risk only a modest
   amount this update. 

   ...Central through western Oklahoma... 

   A few strong to severe storms will also be possible during the
   afternoon along a cold front across central/western OK within an
   environment characterized by strong instability and 30-35 kt
   effective bulk shear. Have opted to maintain MRGL at this point due
   to uncertainty regarding storm coverage. However, an upgrade to SLGT
   might be warranted in day 1 updates.

   ...Northern Mid Atlantic into New England...

   While T.C. Fay is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to move
   quickly into Canada Saturday morning, rich low-level moisture and
   modestly enhanced low/mid-level flow will likely remain in its wake
   from the northern Mid Atlantic into portions of New England, in
   advance of the shortwave trough moving eastward from the OH Valley.
   Renewed thunderstorm development is expected by late morning/early
   afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of localized wind
   damage.

   ..Dial.. 07/10/2020

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