NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Apr 3, 2020 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 3 16:45:53 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 031645

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Fri Apr 03 2020

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently forecast across the
   Lower 48 states on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...

   Low-amplitude enhanced west/southwesterly southern stream upper
   level flow will continue from northern Mexico/south TX eastward
   across the Gulf of Mexico/FL on Saturday. At the surface, a stalled
   cold front will extend from the lower OH River Valley into central
   AR southward through the Sabine River Valley and then southwestward
   along the TX coast for much of the period. South/southeasterly flow
   just above the surface to around 850 mb will maintain warm advection
   atop the frontal boundary and shallow near-surface cool layer.
   Adequate effective shear and weak elevated instability will be
   sufficient to maintain showers and thunderstorms across much of TX
   into the Ozark Plateau. While a couple of stronger cells could
   produce small hail, the overall risk for severe convection will be
   limited by light midlevel winds, weak instability and a lack of
   stronger forcing, ultimately resulting in poorly organized
   convection.

   ..Leitman.. 04/03/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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