NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Mar 19, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 19 04:48:20 UTC 2024
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 190448

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1148 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
   ADJACENT WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT NEAR AND SOUTH OF
   THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of
   the southern Great Plains late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
   night.  Some of this activity may pose at least some risk for severe
   hail and wind.

   ...Synopsis...
   Models continue to indicate that a less amplified, but still broadly
   confluent, split flow will evolve east of the Rockies into the
   western Atlantic through this period.  Within one branch,
   consolidating short wave perturbations emanating from the higher
   latitudes likely will continue digging to the southeast of the lower
   Great Lakes region, before turning eastward across the remainder of
   the Northeast late Wednesday through Wednesday night.  This may be
   accompanied by renewed surface cyclogenesis across portions of
   northern New England into the Canadian Maritimes, trailed by a
   reinforcing cold intrusion surging southeastward across much of the
   northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard, and more slowly southward
   across the lower Ohio into Tennessee Valleys, Ozark Plateau and
   central Great Plains through 12Z Thursday.

   Within a lower-latitude branch, the remnants of a perturbation
   emerging from the Southwest may slowly progress east of the Southern
   Rockies in the form of generally weak positively tilted troughing,
   but with perhaps a couple of still notable embedded smaller-scale
   impulses.  One of these, possibly still a fairly well-defined
   mid-level cyclonic vorticity center, may progress east-southeastward
   across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma late Wednesday
   through Wednesday night.  A trailing perturbation may accelerate
   through stronger flow across the Southwestern international border
   area toward the Texas Big Bend, preceded by a more subtle impulse
   emanating from the subtropical eastern Pacific, which may reach
   Texas coastal areas by 12Z Thursday.  

   There is considerable spread evident in the model output concerning
   these developments, but models continue to indicate little in the
   way of substantive surface cyclogenesis, within broad surface
   troughing across the southern Great Plains.  And low-level moisture
   return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer likely will be limited in
   the wake of a prior intrusion of cool/dry air through much of the
   northern Gulf Basin.  Better low-level moistening may remain
   confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and portions of the Texas
   coastal plain, beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air.

   ...Texas Panhandle Vicinity...
   To the east of a weak surface low, surface dew points may only reach
   the mid 40s to around 50F by late Wednesday afternoon.  But it still
   appears that daytime heating will contribute to a modestly deep,
   well-mixed boundary layer, supportive of CAPE on the order of 500
   J/kg, as relatively cold mid-level air (-20 to -22C around 500 mb) 
   overspreads the region with the approaching cyclonic vorticity
   center.  Although lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields and shear may
   only become modest, at best, this environment could still support
   strong convection posing a risk for small to marginally severe hail
   and a few strong gusts, before convection becomes more widespread
   while spreading east-southeastward Wednesday evening.

   ...Southern Texas...
   A warm elevated mixed layer will likely contribute to strong
   inhibition through much of the period, but models suggest that a
   return of mid 60s F surface dew points by late Wednesday night may
   contribute to mixed-layer CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg.  Considerable
   uncertainty still exists concerning forcing for ascent to overcome
   the inhibition, but at least some model output suggests that a
   subtropical perturbation could support the initiation of storms by
   late Wednesday night, if not earlier.  If this occurs, strong
   deep-layer shear will provide potential for the evolution of
   supercells posing a risk for large hail and locally strong wind
   gusts.

   ..Kerr.. 03/19/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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