NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Nov 29, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Nov 29 17:10:41 UTC 2022
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 291710

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1110 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and a tornado or two
   will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Wednesday, with
   the primary threat expected during the morning hours.

   ...Southeast...
   Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday
   morning, from near the mouth of the Mississippi River northeastward
   into parts of GA/SC. Initially strong low-level shear and sufficient
   buoyancy will support a threat of locally damaging gusts and a brief
   tornado or two with these storms during the morning hours. A gradual
   weakening trend is expected with time as the stronger large-scale
   ascent moves northeastward away from the region, and deep-layer
   flow/shear gradually weakens. Some threat for locally strong gusts
   could persist into the early afternoon across parts of southwest GA
   and the FL Peninsula, before convection diminishes across north FL. 

   ...Northeast/New England...
   The strong and progressive mid/upper-level trough initially over the
   Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will move eastward into New England by
   Wednesday evening. A strong cold front will move through Mid
   Atlantic and Northeast through the day, with very modest low-level
   moisture return expected along/ahead of the front. Increasing
   moisture and favorable low-level convergence and large-scale ascent
   may support development of a somewhat organized frontal band within
   the larger precipitation shield. Strong wind gusts could accompany
   any such frontal band, but with SBCAPE currently forecast to be
   negligible across the region, the potential for convectively
   enhanced gusts appears too limited for wind probabilities at this
   time.

   ..Dean.. 11/29/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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