SPC AC 291710
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds and a tornado or two
will be possible across parts of the Southeast on Wednesday, with
the primary threat expected during the morning hours.
...Southeast...
Extensive convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Wednesday
morning, from near the mouth of the Mississippi River northeastward
into parts of GA/SC. Initially strong low-level shear and sufficient
buoyancy will support a threat of locally damaging gusts and a brief
tornado or two with these storms during the morning hours. A gradual
weakening trend is expected with time as the stronger large-scale
ascent moves northeastward away from the region, and deep-layer
flow/shear gradually weakens. Some threat for locally strong gusts
could persist into the early afternoon across parts of southwest GA
and the FL Peninsula, before convection diminishes across north FL.
...Northeast/New England...
The strong and progressive mid/upper-level trough initially over the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will move eastward into New England by
Wednesday evening. A strong cold front will move through Mid
Atlantic and Northeast through the day, with very modest low-level
moisture return expected along/ahead of the front. Increasing
moisture and favorable low-level convergence and large-scale ascent
may support development of a somewhat organized frontal band within
the larger precipitation shield. Strong wind gusts could accompany
any such frontal band, but with SBCAPE currently forecast to be
negligible across the region, the potential for convectively
enhanced gusts appears too limited for wind probabilities at this
time.
..Dean.. 11/29/2022
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