SPC AC 270557

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 AM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TX
   NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
   from northeast Texas into parts of the upper Mississippi Valley.
   Damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

   ...East TX into the upper MS Valley...
   A broad region of at least some severe potential is still expected
   on Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley.
   Within this larger region, it appears the greatest relative threat
   may develop from northeast TX/southeast OK into western AR/northwest
   LA. However, with very extensive convection expected upstream on
   D1/Saturday, uncertainty is too high to increase probabilities at
   this time. 

   A negatively tilted shortwave trough and attendant surface low are
   forecast to move from the central Plains toward the upper MS Valley
   on Sunday. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing at the start
   of the period from Texas toward the lower MO Valley, and potentially
   farther north into parts of the upper Midwest. Some lingering severe
   threat could accompany this morning convection, especially toward
   the ArkLaTex region where somewhat more favorable
   moisture/instability will be in place. 

   There is some potential for morning convection to remain somewhat
   organized and continue eastward with a severe threat, but the
   greater concern will be with redevelopment in the wake of morning
   convection, with rich low-level moisture expected to remain in place
   along/ahead of the dryline, which will likely extend from eastern
   NE/KS into central OK/TX by late afternoon. 

   One area of potential redevelopment will be immediately ahead of the
   ejecting shortwave trough from eastern KS/NE into western MO and
   southern IA, where a few stronger cells/clusters could pose a threat
   of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and a tornado or two. The
   magnitude of this threat will be strongly dependent on the extent of
   diurnal destabilization in the wake of morning convection.  

   Potentially more vigorous redevelopment will be possible along the
   western/southern periphery of remnant early convection near the
   ArkLaTex region, where rich moisture and favorable wind profiles
   will support organized convection, if sufficient
   recovery/destabilization can occur. Supercells will be possible,
   though there may be a tendency toward cluster or linear mode as
   storm coverage increases. Damaging gusts, hail and a few tornadoes
   will be possible within this regime, though magnitude and favored
   placement of the threat remain uncertain at this time. 

   ...Northeast OH into PA...
   A few stronger storms will be possible Sunday afternoon from
   northeast OH into PA, within a weakly forced northwest-flow regime.
   At this time, instability appears too weak to support an organized
   severe threat, though small hail and gusty winds will be possible
   with the strongest storms.

   ..Dean.. 04/27/2024

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