NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Jul 6, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 6 17:01:03 UTC 2022
  |  
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 061701

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 06 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   MONTANA...AND FROM KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered storms, some severe, will be possible Thursday mainly
   across Montana, and from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the
   Carolinas. Damaging winds will be possible over all areas, with hail
   also expected over Montana.

   ...MT into the northern and central High Plains...
   A region of 30-40 kt southwesterly winds at 500 mb will remain over
   the Pacific Northwest, with neutral to slightly rising heights
   through the period. Midlevel temperatures will remain cool despite
   the ridging, and heating will lead to MUCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg.
   Storms are expected to form over southwest and central MT after 21Z,
   with primarily outflow-driven convection spreading northeastward
   during the evening. The steep lapse rates may support damaging hail
   in the stronger storms, with severe outflow expected as well.

   Additional isolated activity is anticipated farther east into the
   western Dakotas southward into eastern WY/northeast CO/western NE.
   Here, sporadic hail or wind reports will also be possible, with
   minimal organization due to weak shear.

   ...KY/TN into the Carolinas...
   An upper high will be centered over AR, with gradually rising
   heights across much of the Southeast. Weak northwest flow aloft will
   exist across the region (15-20 kt at 500 mb), with warm temperatures
   aloft as well. Despite these factors, robust moisture with 70s F
   dewpoints will remain widespread, with strong heating resulting in
   MUCAPE averaging 2000-3000 J/kg from KY/TN into the Carolinas. Weak
   surface convergence centered over NC may provide a focus for
   clusters of storms and locally damaging gusts, with another area
   across KY and TN coincident with a region of steeper low-level lapse
   rates.

   ..Jewell.. 07/06/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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