NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Feb 25, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook



   SPC AC 251659

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
   Southeast and Gulf Coast Monday. A few thunderstorms may develop
   near the Bay Area later in the day, as well. Organized severe
   weather is not expected.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   With most of the country under the influence of a broad mid-level
   trough, relatively stable low/mid-level conditions are anticipated
   in many locations. Nonetheless, as a sheared impulse traverses the
   Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Monday, another round of convection is
   likely to be ongoing to its south. These storms should be focused
   near/along a stalled front stretching from southeastern Louisiana to
   southern Alabama/Georgia. With the passage of the mid/upper system,
   a weak surface wave is forecast to advance towards the Southeast US
   coast through the day, with the attendant cold front slowly
   accelerating into the northern Gulf. Along/ahead of the front and
   weak surface low, scattered convection is likely, and an isolated
   storm or two may briefly become strong early in the period, owing to
   residual surface-based buoyancy and vigorous westerly mid-level
   flow. However, the strongest flow will becoming increasingly
   displaced from any substantive buoyancy, likely keeping the threat
   of stronger, organized thunderstorms low.

   Elsewhere, a notable northerly mid/upper jet maximum will drive
   south along the Pacific Northwest coast Monday, favoring the
   organization of a closed low that should pass over the Bay Area
   during the afternoon and evening. Cold mid-level temperatures and
   steepening lapse rates may support a few updrafts deep enough for
   lightning production.

   ..Picca.. 02/25/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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