NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 2 Convective Outlook

Nov 15, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Nov 15 05:20:16 UTC 2018
SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 1730Z Outlook Categorical Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 2 Convective Outlook

   SPC AC 150520

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1120 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z


   Weak convection may be observed across parts of the northeastern
   United States Friday but the prospect for lightning is low.


   Focused large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across New
   England during the day2 period in association with exit region of
   mid-level jet. Latest model guidance suggests mid-level lapse rates
   will steepen along this corridor such that elevated convection will
   likely be noted north of deepening surface low. However, overall
   buoyancy will likely be too weak to warrant 10% thunder
   probabilities despite the possibility for a few lightning strikes.
   For these reasons have removed thunder to this part of the country.


Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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