SPC AC 030600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023

   Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST
   AND NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
   evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest
   threat currently expected from northwest Texas into southwest
   Oklahoma.

   ...Synopsis...
   An amplified mid/upper-level longwave trough moving across the
   central CONUS will take on more of a positive tilt on Wednesday, as
   a shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the upper
   Great Lakes into Ontario, while the southern portion of the longwave
   trough moves through the southern Plains. A cold front will move
   through parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains. 

   ...Southwest TX into north TX/southern OK...
   Elevated convection will likely be ongoing somewhere across
   central/eastern OK Wednesday morning, within a modest low-level
   warm-advection regime. The remnant outflow boundary from this
   early-day convection will likely determine the northern extent of
   the effective warm sector Wednesday afternoon. Along and south of
   this boundary, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich
   low-level moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
   destabilization. Reduction of MLCINH via diurnal heating and
   large-scale ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level
   trough will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late
   afternoon from parts of west/northwest TX into southwest OK. 

   While flow within the lowest 5-6 km will be relatively modest,
   sufficient low-level veering and notably stronger flow above 6 km
   will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for initial
   supercell development with an attendant threat of large hail,
   possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter. As storm coverage
   increases with time, some clustering and upscale growth will be
   possible, which may result in an increasing severe-wind threat into
   Wednesday evening, before storm intensity and organization begins to
   wane by early Thursday morning. 

   A Slight Risk has been added from northern parts of the Permian
   Basin into northwest TX and southwest OK, where confidence is
   currently greatest regarding intense storm development during the
   afternoon. Some future adjustments may be needed, depending on
   trends regarding boundary position and placement of the effective
   warm sector. 

   ...Mid/upper TX Coast into east-central TX...
   Diurnal thunderstorm development is expected on Wednesday from near
   the mid/upper TX coast into east-central TX, within a subtly forced
   but very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow may be sufficient
   to support some modest storm organization, though with very weak
   midlevel lapse rates, severe potential with this afternoon
   convection appears relatively limited at this time.

   ..Dean.. 10/03/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z