SPC AC 030600
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Oct 03 2023
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST
AND NORTHWEST TX INTO SOUTHWEST OK...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and
evening across parts of the southern Plains, with the greatest
threat currently expected from northwest Texas into southwest
Oklahoma.
...Synopsis...
An amplified mid/upper-level longwave trough moving across the
central CONUS will take on more of a positive tilt on Wednesday, as
a shortwave trough and attendant surface low move from the upper
Great Lakes into Ontario, while the southern portion of the longwave
trough moves through the southern Plains. A cold front will move
through parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains.
...Southwest TX into north TX/southern OK...
Elevated convection will likely be ongoing somewhere across
central/eastern OK Wednesday morning, within a modest low-level
warm-advection regime. The remnant outflow boundary from this
early-day convection will likely determine the northern extent of
the effective warm sector Wednesday afternoon. Along and south of
this boundary, relatively steep midlevel lapse rates atop rich
low-level moisture will result in moderate to locally strong
destabilization. Reduction of MLCINH via diurnal heating and
large-scale ascent in advance of the approaching mid/upper-level
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid/late
afternoon from parts of west/northwest TX into southwest OK.
While flow within the lowest 5-6 km will be relatively modest,
sufficient low-level veering and notably stronger flow above 6 km
will support effective shear of 40+ kt, sufficient for initial
supercell development with an attendant threat of large hail,
possibly in excess of 2 inches in diameter. As storm coverage
increases with time, some clustering and upscale growth will be
possible, which may result in an increasing severe-wind threat into
Wednesday evening, before storm intensity and organization begins to
wane by early Thursday morning.
A Slight Risk has been added from northern parts of the Permian
Basin into northwest TX and southwest OK, where confidence is
currently greatest regarding intense storm development during the
afternoon. Some future adjustments may be needed, depending on
trends regarding boundary position and placement of the effective
warm sector.
...Mid/upper TX Coast into east-central TX...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is expected on Wednesday from near
the mid/upper TX coast into east-central TX, within a subtly forced
but very moist environment. Mid/upper-level flow may be sufficient
to support some modest storm organization, though with very weak
midlevel lapse rates, severe potential with this afternoon
convection appears relatively limited at this time.
..Dean.. 10/03/2023
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