NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Sep 24, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 24 07:26:02 UTC 2020
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 240726

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0226 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2020

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The potential for organized severe thunderstorms on Saturday across
   parts of the Upper Midwest appears too uncertain to include any
   severe probabilities at this time.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   Large-scale upper troughing should amplify over the north-central
   CONUS on Saturday. A strong west-southwesterly mid/upper-level jet
   will overspread much of the Upper Midwest by Saturday evening.
   Forcing for ascent preceding the upper trough should also encourage
   the northeastward development of a surface low across this region
   through the period. Low-level moisture will likely remain rather
   limited, which should temper the amount of instability available
   across the warm sector in WI. Still, strong effective bulk shear
   will be present owing to the mid/upper-level jet. Current
   expectations are for storm initiation to be delayed until Saturday
   evening as lift increases with a strengthening low-level jet. Any
   storms that form will probably remain elevated, but they could pose
   some threat for hail. Primary uncertainty remains the best corridor
   for this elevated storm development. Some guidance suggests storms
   over northern WI into the U.P. of MI, while other models indicate a
   better chance over central/eastern WI. Given this uncertainty and
   the fairly limited instability forecast, will defer possible
   inclusion of low severe probabilities to a later outlook update.

   Elsewhere, any storms that may be ongoing Saturday morning along
   parts of the East Coast should move offshore through the day, as a
   weak mid-level trough continues eastward. Severe thunderstorms
   appear unlikely across this region.

   ..Gleason.. 09/24/2020

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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