NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Jul 24, 2019 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 24 07:30:32 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 240730

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0230 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2019

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across portions of the
   upper Midwest.

   ...Upper Midwest Region...
   An upper-level low will continue east across Manitoba/western
   Ontario Provinces Friday, with a surface cold front likely extending
   from near the MN Arrowhead southwest to near the NE/SD border by
   late afternoon.  Despite some veering of the low-level flow,
   dewpoints will likely range in the mid-upper 60s in advance of the
   front.  Mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be particularly
   steep, though sufficient for moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE 1500-2000
   J/kg) to develop by afternoon.  Thunderstorms should develop on an
   isolated to widely scattered basis Friday afternoon/evening near the
   front, with some severe risk in the presence of northwesterly shear
   averaging 30-40 kts. The severe risk should begin to wane later
   Friday evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling.

   ..Bunting.. 07/24/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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