NWS Storm Prediction Center - Day 3 Convective Outlook

Jan 16, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 16 06:22:07 UTC 2019
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend

 Forecast Discussion - Day 3 Convective Outlook


   SPC AC 160622

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 AM CST Wed Jan 16 2019

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong storms are possible Friday evening and overnight
   across parts of Texas. Hail will be the primary threat.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will develop southeastward across the Four
   Corners states and into the Southern Plains with 50-65 kt midlevel
   southwesterly winds and cooling aloft overspreading much of Texas.
   At the surface, low pressure will translate southeastward across
   Texas as a cold front surges southward across the High Plains. To
   the east of the cold front, southerly winds will aid in the
   northward transport of low 60s F dewpoints, resulting in
   destabilization and scattered thunderstorms.

   To the west, cold air aloft early in the day may support isolated
   lightning strikes across parts of Arizona and New Mexico, but storm
   activity will not be severe.

   ...Central/Northern Texas into southeastern Oklahoma...
   Moisture advection will occur across the warm sector in Texas
   through the period, with initial rain showers and a few weak
   elevated thunderstorms possibly as early as late afternoon. More
   substantial lift will occur during the evening as warm advection
   increases, and overnight along the cold front. Forecast soundings
   indicate little surface based CAPE due to a cool boundary layer
   initially, but cool temperatures aloft as well as lengthening
   hodographs will favor hail. The most concentrated area of storms
   producing hail is forecast to be over north Texas and perhaps across
   the Red River into Oklahoma and/or ArkLaTex. While surface based
   instability will increase into Saturday morning, chances of wind
   damage appear low at this time.

   ..Jewell.. 01/16/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z



Data courtesy the Storm Prediction Center
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