000
FXUS66 KSTO 260954
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
254 AM PDT Fri Apr 26 2024


.Synopsis...
Mountain snow continues through the evening with thunderstorm
chances today, highest over the foothills and mountains. Mild and
warmer weather in store this weekend into early next week.

&&

.Discussion...
Showers are ongoing over the Sierra and expected to continue
through the morning. Heaviest snowfall is expected late this
morning as the trough continues to build into the Great Basin.
Snow levels are 6000 to 7000 feet, lowering throughout the day.
NBM probabilities show a 15-35% chance of additional snow amounts
of 4 inches or greater, primarily south of Hwy. 50. Currently,
there are 15 to 30 MPH wind gusts over the Sierra and will
continue through the morning before tapering down as the snowfall
tapers off. Impacts are expected to be minimal but be sure to be
cautious if planning mountainous travel as roads may be slick.

Today`s precipitation will be showery in nature with the majority
of precipitation landing over the foothills and mountains. NBM
probabilities show a 15-35% chance of amounts greater than 0.25"
in the foothills and 45-75% chance over the mountains. The
exception to this is any thunderstorm development that may produce
localized brief heavy rain showers. Forecast shows a 15-30%
chance of thunderstorm development, highest chances in the
afternoon and evening. With any developed thunderstorm, lightning,
brief heavy rain showers, small hail, and gusty winds are
possible. Latest hi-res forecast model runs shows scattered
showers north of I-80 over the mountains and foothills this
morning with stronger storms possible early this afternoon through
the evening.

By late this evening, snow showers will have tapered off as
ridging begins to build over the area Saturday morning.
Temperatures begin to warm and by Sunday, afternoon highs will be
in the mid to upper 70s across the Valley with continued warm
weather in store for early next week. Monday will see breezy north
to west winds as northerly flow strengthens under the ridge.

&&


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...

Quasi-zonal flow over EPAC Tuesday into Wednesday as embedded
short wave troughs remain north of the CWA. Deeper upper lows
progged through the PacNW Thursday into Friday with associated
troughing extending into far northern portions of CA. NBM
depicting some low POPs over the Shasta mountains Thursday into
Friday. Downward trend in temperatures expected through the
extended but remaining above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...

Pac storm will bring a threat of shwrs, mtn snow shwrs, and
isolated thunderstorms over interior NorCal thru 04z Sat. In
Central Vly/Delta, mainly VFR next 24 hrs except isolated MVFR
possible thru 03z Sat in shwrs/tstms. Sfc wind mainly at or below
12 kts except vcnty of Delta and N San Joaquin Vly SW-W sfc wind
15-20 kts with lcl gusts up to 25 kts possible thru 05z Sat.
Foothills/mtns areas MVFR/IFR in precip thru 04z Sat. Snow levels
5500-6500 feet. Areas W-NW sfc wind gusts up to 30 kts possible
over mtns thru 00z Sat.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$