NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 192335
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
335 PM PST Tue Feb 19 2019


.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, cold system moves through tomorrow into early Thursday
with light mountain and foothill snow. Breezy winds Thursday with
dry weather Friday. Light precipitation possible once again over
the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High clouds are starting to filter into NorCal and we will
continue to see increasing clouds this evening and into the
overnight. This will keep overnight lows a bit warmer then what we
have been seeing over the last few days but they will still be
chilly falling into the 30s for valley locations and teens and 20s
in the foothills and mountains. Our next system will be an inside
slider system and overall will lack moisture but will bring some
mountain travel issues on Wednesday. Because of this a Winter
Weather Advisory has been issued above 4000 feet for the Sierra
and south Cascades. Light showers will begin to overspread
northern areas late in the overnight with showers possible for
the rest of the area by the late morning. We do see some weak
instability build into the Valley by the afternoon but it looks to
be limited generally under 300 j/kg. The risk for convection
looked too low to add to the forecast but if we would see any
activity it would likely be Sacramento south. Snow levels will
generally be between 2000 and 2500 feet on Wednesday. We could
see a few flakes mix in with any rain showers before 7 am in the
Redding area but no snow accumulation is expected. Overall the
accumulating snow is expected above 4000 feet where 3-7 inches are
expected through Wednesday evening. Light accumulations will be
possible down to 1500 feet though late Wednesday as we see snow
levels fall to around or just below 1000 feet.

A few snow showers will linger in the far southeast part of the
area Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper trough slowly
tracks into SoCal. Little to no additional snow accumulation
expected. The pressure gradient will tighten up on Thursday and
that is going to bring breezy northerly winds for late morning
into the evening. High temperatures for the short term will
continue to run 5 to 15 below average and cold overnight lows will
return by Thursday night.

-CJM


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Dry weather expected for Interior NorCal Friday as upper low
pushes south of the forecast area and upper ridging builds into
the CWA. Some locally breeze northeasterly wind possible in the
eastern foothills/mountains early Friday. Models show another
fairly weak storm to move through over the weekend with snow
levels generally around 2000 to 3000 feet. Forecast confidence
decreases early next week as EC dries the weather, while GFS
keeps some overrunning precip into Monday. Forecast for now leans
more towards GFS on day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal til arnd 12z then areas MVFR/IFR conds
in pcpn, mnly omtns. Sn lvls arnd 015-025 ft amsl.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.

&&

$$
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