Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KSTO 151141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
341 AM PST Thu Nov 15 2018

Dry with above normal temperatures through early next week except
in areas of heavy smoke due to Camp Wildfire. Breezy northeast
winds over the Sierra Nevada Saturday night into Sunday elevating
fire danger. Cooler temperatures next week with a chance of
precipitation interior Norcal mid week.


Strong high pressure over the eastern Pacific and west coat will
bring dry conditions with above normal temperatures through the
short term period. Exception to above normal temperatures will be
in areas of heavy smoke from the camp fire roughly from Chico to
Sacramento. Insolation from smoke in these valley locations will
keep daytime highs over the next couple of days close to normal
for this time if year. Other impact of this wildfire smoke will be
decreased visibilities throughout the central valley impacting
aviation. Worst area of visibility currently is Oroville region
where visibility is reported at 1/2 mile. Smokey valley conditions
are likely to continue Friday and possibiy even Saturday as
atmosphere remains stable and winds remain relatively light.

Models in fairly good agreement in dropping a shortwave trough
southeastward through the Pacific Northwest on Saturday with high
pressure rebounding over the west coast by Saturday night.
Combination of light northeast to east flow aloft and a moderately
tight northeast surface gradient across the Sierra will bring
breezy northeast winds Saturday night especially to the higher
elevations and favorably oriented Sierra and foothill canyons.
These breezy winds which could bring elevated fire danger will be
short lived with winds decreasing by Sunday afternoon. The brief
wind event may be sufficient enough to mix some of the smoke out
of the valley on Sunday so this region may see a little more sun
during the second half of the weekend.

Upper high forecast to progress into the Great Basin Monday as
trapped closed low to the south approaches CA. Progs weaken low as
it moves inland across SoCal Tuesday. Medium models diverge
significantly beyond Tuesday. EC brings stronger short wave trough
into NorCal Wednesday with ridging returning Thursday, while GFS
maintains upper ridging through Thursday. GEFS and NAEFSs showing
upper troughing similar to EC, but slower progression with wave
moving inland Thursday. Consensus points to some precip possible
towards the latter part of next week, but low confidence in timing
and amounts at the moment.



Widespread MVFR likely the next 24 hours across Central Valley
with local IFR conditions due to smoke from the Butte County
wildfire. Surface winds generally below 10 knots.



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