Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KSTO 211020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
320 AM PDT Mon May 21 2018

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms possible over higher terrain
much of this week. Seasonal temperatures continue across the


Clear to partly cloudy skies across the region early this morning.
Radar showing some light showers across the higher elevations of
the northern Sierra south of Tahoe. Onshore pressure gradients
have relaxed compared to 24 hours ago and winds at Travis have
also decreased, so not looking favorable for a stratus intrusion
into the Sacramento region this morning.

Current temperatures range from the mid 30s to mid 40s in the
mountain valleys to the 50s to lower 60s elsewhere.

Satellite imagery shows the latest low closing off to our south
over central California while a strong vort presently over NW
California is dropping southward. A few light showers may drift
down into the Motherlode and northern San Joaquin Valley this
morning as vertical motion increases across the southeast portion
of the CWA and forecast soundings show rapid moistening. This area
will also see potential for some showers late this afternoon and
evening as decaying activity from the Sierra drifts southwestward
toward the San Joaquin Valley.

Closed low forecast to slowly lift northward through the Great
Basin Tuesday and Wednesday as the next upstream low approaches
NorCal from the west. Shower and thunderstorm activity expected to
be mainly diurnal and limited to higher terrain.

Next system forecast to bring an upswing in shower activity later
Thursday as it approaches the coast near the Bay Area.


Guidance shows an upper level low off the CA coast approaching
interior NorCal late this week. The upper low will push inland on
Saturday. Forecast models indicate enough instability for a threat
of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms over higher
terrain, and possibly in the Northern Sacramento Valley. Drier
conditions expected early next week as upper level system moves
into the Great Basin. Daytime highs expected to remain near
seasonal normals through the forecast period with Valley
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and 60s to 70s over the
foothills and mountains.


Mainly VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours except
MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms over the
northern Sierra Nevada after 18z Monday. Gusts up to 25 kts in
Delta until 00z Tuesday, increasing to 30 kts overnight. Winds
less than 15 knots at TAF sites.




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