NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 162112
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
212 PM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
Below average temperatures continue early this week. Patchy smoke
and haze will continue, mainly over Shasta County.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Low temperatures this morning fell to the high 40s to low 50s
across the Valley and 20s to 30s in the mountains, with Stockton
even tying the daily low temperature record at 48 degrees. Another
day of below normal temperatures is forecast today across
interior NorCal.

The upper trough will weaken a bit across NorCal early this week
as the trough axis slowly shifts east the next few days. The
result will be dry and slightly milder conditions through Tuesday,
though highs will remain below average. The trough finally over
and east of California Tuesday, and ridging from the eastern
Pacific returns Wednesday. Temperatures will warm back to near
normal Wednesday, and dry northerly flow is expected behind the
the trough passage. HEC

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Upper level low becomes zonal Thursday allowing temperatures to
warm another couple degrees to normal. Forecast high temperatures
on Thursday are anticipated to be in the 80s to low 90s across
the Central Valley, and 60s to 80s over the mountains. A weak
shortwave trough is forecast to slide into the Pacific NW late
Thursday into Friday, bringing breezy afternoon winds over the
Sierra on Friday. Current model runs are a bit more in alignment
in the extended than previous runs, though the forecast is still
uncertain. Another shortwave trough is forecast to move through
the Pacific NW Friday into Saturday with a deeper trough axis
deepening off the coast Sunday. This will allow temperatures to
cool slightly once again. Breezy winds are expected Saturday and
Sunday afternoons. Current forecast has temperatures below normal
again for next weekend if the model forecasts hold up. Dry
weather is likely to continue across interior NorCal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions the next 24 hours except for local MVFR/IFR near
the Delta fire. Gusts to 20 kts through the Delta after 03z Monday.
Otherwise, expect winds generally below 15 knots.

&&

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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