NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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138
FXUS66 KSTO 142137
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
137 PM PST Wed Nov 14 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
Smoke will likely continue to be an issue in parts of the valley
with no strong wind to scour things out in the near term.
Continued dry weather through most the forecast with pattern
change likely mid week next week but chances of rain still
uncertain. Overall fire weather concerns not too much except for a
period of possible northeast winds in Sierra Saturday Night into
Monday which will be watching closely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday a weak upper disturbance will move across the
area which will bring some high clouds and also break down the
upper ridge a little. Overall the result won`t be too much change
in the weather Thursday compared to Wednesday with dry conditions
and low humidites. Overall winds also on the light side.

Friday again not much change in overall pattern as pre-mentioned
wave kind of washes out and we remain in a somewhat northerly dry
flow once again.

Saturday and Saturday night though...models showing a moderate
wave to push across the great basin. This will increase the
pressure gradient across the Sierra a bit and cause some east to
northeast winds. Strength right now doesn`t look too bad but if
models keep trending we will have to keep an eye on fire weather
concerns in the Sierra and foothills.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)

A pattern change is looking more and more likely in the extended
period. How much rain and when is still up in the air...but what
is more certain is a change to a more westerly flow with increased
moisture for higher relative humidities as far as fire weather
conditions. Right now looks like any precipitation will hold off
until after Tuesday as GFS takes a chunk of energy into SoCal and
little to nothing here Tuesday. ECWMF does bring a wave across
NorCal Wednesday with GFS nothing but ensemble data suggesting at
least a chance of some precitipation occuring so will continue to
pops and message of pattern change and possible rain mid week.
Rasch


&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR likely the next 24 hours across the entire Valley
with local IFR conditions due to smoke from the Butte County
wildfire. Winds less than 10 knots at TAF sites.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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