Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS66 KSTO 151116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
316 AM PST Fri Feb 15 2019


A strong storm continues to bring precipitation to the region
through the weekend. Heavy snow will continue in the mountains with
minor accumulations possible in the foothills through early Sunday.
Additional rainfall expected in the Valley today with chances
decreasing through the weekend.



Satellite imagery this morning indicates the main upper low is located
over the Pacific west of Oregon with bands of precipitation continuing
to move over the NorCal interior.

Surface winds are generally from the southwest limiting strong
wind gusts across the Valley overnight with the strongest gusts
seen around 35 mph. With the gradient expected to decrease today,
have opted to cancel the Wind Advisory early this morning. Periods
of gusts up to 35 mph, however, will continue to be possible
through early Saturday morning.

The main hazard through the weekend will be the snowfall impacting
the Sierra-Southern Cascades and Shasta County mountains. Current
radar shows heavy snow already falling in the Sierra with continued
heavy snow forecast through the day into Saturday. Snow levels are
expected to remain around 2500-3000 feet with an additional 3 to 6
feet expected through early Sunday morning, with local amounts even
higher. Have extended the Winter Storm Warning for the Sierra through
early Sunday morning due to the additional amounts up to 2 feet
expected Saturday in the Sierra. Additionally, areas around I-5 in
Shasta County may see up to a foot of snow creating hazardous
travel conditions mainly through Saturday morning, although
additional light amounts may be seen through the day Saturday. A
shortwave ahead of the main trough will move across NorCal
Saturday night into Sunday bringing with it colder air and lower
snow levels. Snow levels Sunday morning will drop to 800-1500
feet, although snowfall at this time will be decreasing and only
light amounts up to 2-4 inches are expected at this time.

As for rainfall, additional amounts from a half to an inch to an
inch can be expected in the Valley, with 1 to 4 inches in the
foothills. There remains a slight chance for thunderstorms mainly late
morning into the afternoon across the Valley today which may lead to
localized areas of heavy rainfall. Urban and small stream
flooding is still a concern today as rain continues. Rain in the
Valley will not be continuous through the weekend with periods of
dry weather expected.


Extended period starts out dry under light northerly flow aloft
between upper trough over the Great Basin and an upper ridge over
the eastern Pacific. Daytime highs will climb several degrees
under fair skies but will still remain a few degrees below normal.
Only minor changes expected Tuesday as models drop a weak trough
southward across the north state. Models drop a stronger upper
low out of western Canada and into the Pacific Northwest on
Wednesday. Models differ some on track of this system southward
but at this time this appears to be somewhat of an inside slider
mainly affecting the north CWA and Sierra Cascade range. Entire
forecast area could see a threat of precipitation Wednesday night
or Thursday but this relatively dry and cold system is not
expected to drop significant amounts of precipitation. Snow levels
with this cold system will remain relatively low.



MVFR/IFR ceilings all TAF sites next 24 hours with IFR/LIFR
conditions over mountains as cold low pressure system drops
southward through the region. Numerous shower`s with occasional
heavy showers. Chance of thunderstorms over the central valley
this afternoon. South winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 knots
higher terrain this morning decreasing slightly this afternoon and


Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County.


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