NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 111152
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
352 AM PST Sun Nov 11 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather continues with cool nights and near to above normal
days through the week. Critical fire weather conditions continue
through Monday morning with breezy winds and low humidity.
Widespread smoke from the Camp Fire will continue to impact much
of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The area remains on the east side of a strong eastern Pacific
Ridge. A trough dropping into the Great Basin is bringing
an increasing surface pressure gradient. Northerly winds are
starting to increase this morning from north to south across the
forecast areas, with gusts at 3 am to 31 mph at Redding, 22 mph
at Vacaville and Marysville. These spots are quite mild due to the
wind, with Redding a mild 58 degrees, Vacaville 61. Locations to
the south have much lighter winds and so are much cooler, with
temperatures dropping into the 30s. This will make a big contrast
in temperatures for low temperatures this morning and through the
day. Valley locations to the north of the smoke could reach the
low 70s, while areas to the south should remain in the 60s.

Northerly winds and very low humidity are bringing another round
of very high fire danger to the area. Winds in the mountains are
already gusting to 40 to 60 mph on some mountain peaks. Winds
should peak in the morning hours, with a Wind Advisory remaining
in effect through noon today. Humidity is extremely low, with
overnight recovery down in the teens in many locations. This along
with the wind and near record dry fuels is bringing critical fire
weather conditions, which are expected to continue into early
Monday. A Red Flag Warning continues for much of the area through
that time period.

In addition to warming temperatures and bringing fire danger, the
winds are beginning to clear smoke, especially over the northern
Sacramento Valley. Light winds and a strong inversion have brought
dense smoke to ground level, bringing poor visibility and bad air
quality. Some improvement is expected to gradually spread
southward down the Sacramento Valley, though areas north of I80
will probably get more improvement than areas to the south, which
will see as much wind. For now, visibility has improved enough to
allow the Dense Smoke Advisory to expire at 4am. For air quality
information, go to Airnow.gov or websites for your local air
quality district.

No precipitation is expected across interior NorCal as high
pressure remains in control of the region. Daytime highs will
depend on how much smoke blocks the sun. Morning lows are
anticipated to be in the 30s to mid 40s across the Valley, with
some forst locally possible. Lows will be in the 10s to low 20s
across mountain basin locations. EK

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)

Broad upper ridge forecast to continue across the region later in
the week maintaining dry weather with mild days and cool nights,
and no strong wind events are expected. Upstream trough forecast
to split across the eastern Pacific with most of the energy
forecast to dig southeastward toward Baja and SoCal late next
weekend. Confidence in details remains low.

&&
&&

.AVIATION...

Widespread MVFR with local IFR expected to continue next 24 hours
south of KCIC as smoke continues to spread southward from the
Butte County wildfire. VFR elsewhere. Northerly winds 10-15 kts
with gusts 15-30 kts expected thru much of the Sacramento Valley.
Areas northeast wind gusts 25-40 kts continue over the west
slopes northern Sierra Nevada. Winds decreasing by 00Z Monday.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 AM PST Monday for Burney Basin and
Northeast Plateau in Shasta County Including Northwest Lassen NF
north of Lassen NP-Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento
Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County
Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of
Shasta/Trinity NF-Lake County Portion of Lake-Napa-Sonoma Unit-
Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of
Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado Units-Northern Sacramento
Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern
Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of
Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern Sierra Including Lassen
NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the Sierra Crest (West of
Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth Peak)-Northern Sierra
Including the Tahoe and ElDorado NF/S West of the Sierra Crest-
Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-
Glenn Unit-Southern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes
portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley
in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and
Solano County Below 1000 Ft-Stanislaus NF West of the Sierra
Crest.

Wind Advisory until noon PST today for Motherlode-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

&&

$$
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