NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST DISCUSSION
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by The National Weather Service
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000
FXUS66 KSTO 102137
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
237 PM PDT Tue Jul 10 2018



.SYNOPSIS...

Hot temperatures continue through the week into the weekend.
Monsoonal moisture will bring chances for showers and
thunderstorms to the higher elevations late week into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...

We are going to see quiet but hot weather for today across NorCal.
Highs this afternoon will warm to near or just above the century
mark in the southern valley and as hot as 104 in the north valley
and 70s and 80s in the higher elevations. A ridge over the
Great Basin will slowly retrograde pushing monsoon moisture north
into the region later Wednesday. Overall we will see dry
conditions on Wednesday as there will be a lack of CAPE and
forcing but an isolated afternoon storm can`t be ruled out in the
far SE part of the CWA. Moisture will continue to overspread
NorCal on Thursday and we see decent MUCAPE over the mountains
mainly south of I-80. Storms still should remain on the isolated
side do to a lack of forcing. MUCAPE looks to overspread the rest
of the mountains and coastal range on Friday but once again we
look to lack any strong forcing and that should keep convection
isolated in nature.

Temperatures will be hot once again on Wednesday and will be a few
degrees warmer in the north valley with highs as hot as 106, upper
90s in the south valley and 70s and 80s in the mountains. Things
will remain hot up north Thursday and Friday but weak onshore flow
will keep highs in the mid 90s for the south valley. This will
bring a moderate heat risk for the Redding and Red Bluff area for
the rest of the week but stays just below advisory levels.

-CJM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

Monsoon moisture will be in place for the start of the extended
period and we can expect chances for showers and t-storms in the
higher elevations mainly over the weekend. There is a descent
amount of uncertainty to how widespread convection will be though.
The GFS brings in a weak short wave trough into the northern part
of the area on Saturday and this would likely cause convection to
be a bit more widespread given the moisture and available CAPE.
The EC holds this short wave trough off until Monday when much of
the monsoon moisture is pushed back south. Highs over the
extended period will range from 101 to 107 in the north valley,
mid to upper 90s in the south valley, and 70s and 80s in the
mountains.

-CJM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Light winds through the
valley with gusts up to 25 kts in the delta.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
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